An Inconvenient Truth(难以忽视的真相)[2006]电影台词本阅读、下载和单词统计

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电影名称：难以忽视的真相
英文名称：An Inconvenient Truth
年代：2006

推荐：千部英美剧台词本阅读
时间 英文 中文
[00:35] You look at that river 看那条河
[00:37] gently flowing by. 在面前缓缓流过
[00:40] You notice the leaves 听那树叶
[00:43] rustling with the wind. 在风中瑟瑟作响
[00:46] You hear the birds. 你听到鸟啾
[00:48] You hear the tree frogs. 听到蛙鸣
[00:50] In the distance, you hear a cow. 还有远处的牛哞
[00:53] You feel the grass. 感觉那草
[00:56] The mud gives a little bit on the river bank. 从河岸的泥土里探出头来
[01:00] It’s quiet. It’s peaceful. 多么安静 祥和
[01:04] And all of a sudden, 突然之间
[01:06] it’s a gear shift inside you. 你内心就如汽车换挡般
[01:09] And it’s like taking a deep breath and going, 长舒一口气然后感叹
[01:14] “Oh, yeah, I forgot about this. “ “哦 我都忘掉这些东西了”
[01:24] This is the first picture of the Earth from space 这是第一张从太空中拍摄地球的照片
[01:28] that any of us ever saw. 所有人看到的第一张
[01:30] It was taken on Christmas Eve, 1 968 它由阿波罗8号拍摄于1968年圣诞夜
[01:34] during the Apollo 8 Mission.
[01:37] …within relatively comfortable boundaries. …在这些相对舒服的边界之内
[01:40] But we are filling up that thin shell of atmosphere with pollution. 我们正将污染物不断 填冲进这薄薄的大气圈
[02:05] Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Al Gore. 女士们 先生们 阿尔?戈尔先生
[02:10] I am AI Gore. 我是阿尔?戈尔
[02:11] I used to be the next president of the United States Of America. 曾经是美国的下届总统 (曾为美国副总统并参选2000年总统)
[02:17] I don’t find that particularly funny. 我没觉着那很好笑
[02:45] I’ve been trying to tell this story for a long time, 长久以来我一直设法讲述这故事
[02:48] and I feel as if I’ve failed to get the message across. 而我觉得自己没能让这些信息广为知晓
[03:13] I was in politics for a long time and I’m proud of my service. 我从政多年 为此我感到自豪
[03:24] You gotta be kidding me. This is a national disaster. 你准是在开玩笑 这可是全国性灾难
[03:27] Get every doggone Greyhound bus line in the country, 把全国的每一辆长途汽车
[03:30] and get their…moving to New Orleans. 都…开到新奥尔良去
[03:31] (卡特里娜飓风 2005年8月29日)
[03:33] That’s them thinking small, man, 他们居然认为这是小事
[03:35] and this is a major, major, major deal. 这可是一个大大大问题
[03:39] What do you need right now? 你现在需要什么?
[03:41] There are good people, 美国两个政党里面都有好人
[03:44] who are in politics in both parties
[03:47] who hold this at arm’s length 他们保持一定距离来处理这些事
[03:50] because if they acknowledge it and recognize it, 因为一旦他们承认并认可它
[03:53] then the moral imperative to make big changes 道德律令必发生巨变
[03:57] is inescapable. 无法避免的
[03:58] … unless you fix the biggest damn crisis in the history of this country. …除非你解决国家有史以来的最大危机
[04:10] 片名: 不方便的真相
[04:17] …scouted out landing spots and they lost radio contact …寻找着陆点 然后当他们绕到了月球的暗面
[04:21] when they went around the dark side of the moon. 失去了无线电联系
[04:24] And there was inevitably some suspense. 大家都不免有些担心
[04:26] Then when they came back in radio contact, 而当他们的无线电联系恢复以后
[04:30] they looked up 他们向上望
[04:31] and they snapped this picture, and it became known as Earth Rise. 抓拍到了这张照片 它日后被大家称为”地球升起”
[04:35] And that one picture exploded 而这一张图片引爆了
[04:38] in the consciousness of humankind. 人类的良知
[04:41] It lead to dramatic changes. 它导致了戏剧性的变化
[04:43] Within 18 months of this picture, 这张图片问世后的18个月内
[04:45] the modern environmental movement had begun. 现代环境运动发轫了
[04:48] The next picture was taken on the last of the Apollo missions, 下一张图片是在阿波罗 最后一次任务期间拍摄的
[04:52] Apollo 1 7. 阿波罗17号
[04:54] This one was taken on December 1 1, 1972, 它拍摄于1972年12月11日
[04:58] and it is the most commonly published photograph in all of history. 而它是整个历史上最广为刊载的照片
[05:02] And it’s the only picture of the Earth from space that we have 也是我们仅有的一张太空看地球的图片
[05:07] where the sun was directly behind the spacecraft 拍摄时 太阳正处于飞船身后
[05:10] so that the Earth is fully lit up and not partly in darkness. 这样地球整个是亮的 没有黑暗的部分
[05:16] The next image I’m gonna show you has almost never been seen. 我要给你们看的下一张图片 几乎从来没有露过面
[05:20] It was taken by a spacecraft called The Galileo 它是由被送往探寻太阳系的 伽利略飞船所拍摄的
[05:24] that went out to explore the solar system.
[05:27] And as it was leaving Earth’s gravity, it turned its cameras around 它离开地球的重力圈时 调转了自己的照相机
[05:32] and took a time lapse picture of one day’s worth of rotation, 并间歇性拍摄了自转一天的照片
[05:37] here compressed into 24 seconds. 在这里被压缩进了24秒
[05:41] Isn’t that beautiful? 很美丽吧
[05:43] This image is a magical image in a way. 这图片 可称得上是一张神奇的图片
[05:46] It was made by a friend of mine, Tom Van Sant. 它是我的朋友汤姆?范?山特制作的
[05:49] He took 3,000 separate satellite pictures 他将3000张在3年期间内所拍的卫星图片
[05:52] taken over a three-year period, digitally stitched together.
[05:55] 数字化地集成起来
[05:57] And he chose images that would give a cloud-free view 他所选的图片都没有云层遮挡
[06:01] of every square inch of the Earth’s surface. 可以将地球表面一览无遗
[06:04] All of the land masses accurately portrayed. 所有的大陆块都被如实地描绘
[06:08] When that’s all spread out, it becomes an iconic image. 把它们都展开来就成了一副地球的肖像
[06:12] I show this because I wanna tell you a story about two teachers I had. 展示这些图片旨在帮助我讲述 关于我的两个老师的故事
[06:18] One that I didn’t Iike that much, the other who is a real hero to me. 一位老师我不是很喜欢 另一位则是我的英雄
[06:23] I had a grade school teacher who taught geography 我曾有过一位小学地理老师
[06:26] by pulling a map of the world down in front of the blackboard. 上课时总从黑板前拉下一幅地图
[06:30] I had a classmate in the sixth grade who raised his hand 我一个6年级的同学举起了手
[06:34] and he pointed to the outline of the east coast of South America 指了指南美洲的东海岸的形状
[06:39] and he pointed to the west coast of Africa 又指了指非洲的西海岸
[06:43] and he asked, “Did they ever fit together?” 并问道 “它们曾经合在一起吗?”
[06:43] and he asked, “Did they ever fit together?”
[06:47] And the teacher said, 老师答道
[06:48] “Of course not. That’s the most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.” 当然没有 那是我听到过的最荒唐的事
[06:51] That student went on to become a drug addict and a ne’er-do-well. 那个学生以后变成了 一个毒品瘾君子外加窝囊废
[06:55] The teacher went on to become science advisor 而这个老师后来则成为了科学顾问
[06:58] in the current administration. 就在现任政府里
[07:10] But, you know, the teacher was actually reflecting 但是 你知道吗么 这个老师当时所体现的
[07:14] the conclusion of the scientific establishment of that time. 正是当时的科学机构所认同的结论
[07:18] Continents are so big, obviously they don’t move. 大陆如此之大以至于它们明显不会移动
[07:24] But, actually, as we now know, they did move. 但事实上 正如我们现在知道的 它们的确移动
[07:28] They moved apart from one another. 他们彼此分离
[07:30] But at one time they did, in fact, fit together. 但事实上 他们曾经是结合在一起的
[07:33] But that assumption was a problem. 不过这个假设却有个问题
[07:35] It reflected the well-known wisdom 它反映了一个广泛熟知的箴言
[07:38] that what gets us into trouble is not what we don’t know, 也就是让我们陷入麻烦的 并不是我们所不知道的
[07:41] it’s what we know for sure that just ain’t so. 而是那些我们以为如此 却并非如此的东西
[07:44] (马克?吐温)
[07:46] This is actually an important point, believe it or not, 这就是重点 不管你信不信
[07:49] because there is another such assumption 因为还有另外一个假设
[07:52] that a lot of people have in their minds right now about global warming 就是许多人现在对于 全球变暖的问题的看法
[07:56] that just ain’t so. 而事实并非如此
[07:58] The assumption is something like this. The Earth is so big 这个假设如下 地球是如此之大
[08:02] we can’t possibly have any lasting harmful impact 以至于我们不可能对地球环境
[08:05] on the Earth’s environment. 产生任何持久的危害
[08:07] And maybe that was true at one time, but it’s not anymore. 或许这个假设曾经是正确的 可现在就再也不是了
[08:10] And one of the reasons it’s not true anymore 而其不正确的理由之一
[08:13] is that the most vulnerable part of the Earth’s ecological system 就是地球生态系统最易受伤害的部分
[08:18] is the atmosphere. 大气
[08:20] Vulnerable because it’s so thin. 因为它太薄而易受伤害
[08:24] My friend, the late Carl Sagan, used to say, 我的朋友 已故的卡尔?萨根曾说过
[08:26] “If you had a big globe with a coat of varnish on it, “如果你有个外面 涂有一层清漆的大地球仪
[08:30] “the thickness of that varnish relative to that globe 清漆厚度与地球仪的比例
[08:33] “is pretty much the same 差不多就是
[08:34] “as the thickness of the Earth’s atmosphere 地球大气厚度
[08:37] “compared to the Earth itself.” 与地球本身的比例”
[08:40] And it’s thin enough 它是那么薄
[08:42] that we are capable of changing its composition. 足以被我们改变它的成分
[08:46] That brings up the basic science of global warming. 这就提出了关于全球变暖的科学基本知识
[08:49] And I’m not gonna spend a lot of time on this because you know it well. 我并不打算对此花很多时间 因为大家对这个都很熟悉
[08:53] The sun’s radiation comes in in the form of light waves 太阳热辐射是以光波形式传送
[08:56] and that heats up the Earth. 它给地球加热
[08:58] And then some of the radiation that is absorbed and warms the Earth 部分热量被地球吸收 并使地球温度上升
[09:03] is reradiated back into space 其以红外射线形式再度辐射回太空
[09:05] in the form of infrared radiation.
[09:08] And some of the outgoing infrared radiation is trapped 其中一些红外辐射被大气捕获
[09:12] by this layer of atmosphere and held inside the atmosphere. 并保存在大气层之内
[09:17] And that’s a good thing because it keeps the temperature of the Earth 这个是好事 因为它保持地球的温度
[09:20] within certain boundaries, 在一定的范围之内
[09:22] keeps it relatively constant and livable. 保持地球恒温并适合生命居住
[09:25] But the problem is this thin layer of atmosphere is being thickened 现在的问题是 由于导致变暖的污染物的囤积
[09:30] by all of the global warming pollution that’s being put up there. 这个原本很薄的气层越来越厚
[09:35] And what that does is it thickens this layer of atmosphere, 这样下来此气层被不断增厚
[09:39] more of the outgoing infrared is trapped. 更多的红外辐射被捕获了
[09:43] And so the atmosphere heats up worldwide. That’s global warming. 这样全球大气升温 而这就是全球变暖
[09:47] Now, that’s the traditional explanation. 上述就是传统的解释
[09:49] Here’s what I think is a better explanation. 下面是我认为更好的一段解释
[09:55] 全球变暖 或…
[09:58] 没人喜欢热!
[10:09] You’re probably wondering why your ice cream went away. 你大概在想为什么冰激凌都跑掉了
[10:12] Well, Susie, the culprit isn’t foreigners. 苏茜 罪魁祸首并不是陌生人
[10:15] It’s global warming. 这正是全球变暖
[10:17] -Global… -Yeah. – 全球拔努 – 对
[10:22] Meet Mr. Sunbeam. 这是阳光先生
[10:23] He comes all the way from the sun to visit Earth. 他从太阳一路走来拜访地球
[10:27] Hello, Earth. Just popping in to brighten your day. 你好 地球 我来照亮你们的白天
[10:33] And now I’ll be on my way. 现在我要走咯
[10:36] Not so fast, Sunbeam. 别这么快 阳光
[10:38] We’re greenhouse gases. You ain’t going nowhere. 我们是温室气体 你不能去任何地方
[10:46] Oh, God, it hurts. 噢 上帝 好痛
[10:48] Pretty soon, Earth is chock-full of Sunbeams. 很快 地球被塞满了阳光
[10:51] Their rotting corpses heating our atmosphere. 他们的腐尸加热了我们的大气
[10:56] How do we get rid of the greenhouse grasses? 我们怎么能驱走这些温室青草?
[11:00] Fortunately, our handsomest politicians 幸运的是 我们最帅的政治家们
[11:03] came up with a cheap, last-minute way to combat global warming. 提出了便宜的 临时抱佛脚的方法 与全球变暖格斗
[11:07] Ever since 2063, 2063年后
[11:09] we simply drop a giant ice cube into the ocean every now and then. 我们只要不时地将一个大冰块丢入大洋
[11:15] Just like Daddy puts in his drink every morning. 就像父亲每早把冰块放到他的饮料一样
[11:19] And then he gets mad. 然后他的火气就上来了
[11:21] Of course, since the greenhouse gases are still building up, 当然 因为温室气体还在不断排放
[11:24] it takes more and more ice each time. 每次都会需要更多的冰
[11:29] Thus, solving the problem once and for all. 这样 便一劳永逸地解决了这个问题
[11:31] -But… -Once and for all! – 但是… – 一劳永逸!
[11:33] (结束)
[11:41] This is the image that started me 正是这幅图片
[11:44] in my interest in this issue. 引起了我对这个议题的兴趣
[11:47] And I saw it when I was a college student 这是我在大学时代看到
[11:49] because I had a professor named Roger Revelle 因为我有个教授罗杰?雷维尔
[11:52] who was the first person to propose measuring carbon dioxide 正是他首先提出测量 地球大气中的二氧化碳
[11:55] in the Earth’s atmosphere.
[12:01] He saw where the story was going 在一开始几次试验后 他预测到了事情的发展
[12:04] after the first few chapters.
[12:07] After the first few years of data, 在看到前几年的数据之后
[12:10] he intuited what it meant 他直觉到这对未来的意义
[12:14] for what was yet to come.
[12:19] They designed the experiment in 1 957. 他们在1957年设计了实验
[12:23] He hired Charles David Keeling 他聘请了查尔斯?戴维?基林
[12:25] who was very faithful and precise 几十年来 查尔斯对待 测量都充满着信心和严谨
[12:28] in making these measurements for decades.
[12:32] They started sending these weather balloons up every day 他们每天释放这种天气气球
[12:35] and they chose the middle of the Pacific 释放地点挑选在太平洋中间
[12:38] because it was the area that was most remote. 因为这是地球上最边远的地区
[12:43] And he was a very hard-nosed scientist. 他是位非常讲求实际的科学家
[12:46] He really emphasized the hard data. 非常强调硬数据
[12:51] It was a wonderful time for me 这对我是一段美好的时光
[12:53] because, like a lot of young people, 因为 与许多年轻人一样
[12:55] I came into contact with intellectual ferment, 我开始接触这些启蒙运动的思想 是原来我从来没有想象过的
[12:59] ideas that I’d never considered
[13:02] in my wildest dreams before.
[13:06] And he showed our class 几年之后他给我们班
[13:09] the results of his measurements after only a few years. 展示了他的测量结果
[13:14] It was startling to me. 我感到非常吃惊
[13:17] Now he was startled 事实上他非常吃惊
[13:20] and made it clear to our class 并清楚地展示给了我们
[13:22] what he felt the significance of it was. 他所认为的这些数据的重要意义
[13:25] And I just soaked it up like a sponge. 我像海绵一样吸收了这些思想
[13:29] He drew the connections 他提出人类文明的巨变
[13:30] between the larger changes in our civilization
[13:35] and this pattern that was now visible 和现在可见的整个地球的 大气圈的模式之间具有联系
[13:38] in the atmosphere of the entire planet.
[13:41] And then he projected into the future where this was headed 然后他描绘出了未来的发展趋势 除非我们做出某种调整去改变它
[13:44] unless we made some adjustments.
[13:47] And it was just as clear as day. 这就像白昼一样清晰
[13:53] After the first seven, eight, nine years, 在开始的七,八,九年过去之后
[13:55] you could see the pattern that was developing. 你可以看出这正在发展的图案
[13:58] But I asked a question. 但我问了一个问题
[14:00] Why is it that it goes up and down once each year? 为什么每年的数据都会一上一下?
[14:04] And he explained that if you look at the land mass of the Earth, 他解释道 你看地球的陆地面积
[14:07] very little of it is south of the equator. 在赤道以南所占比重很小
[14:10] The vast majority of it is north of the equator, 大部分陆地位于赤道以北
[14:13] and most of the vegetation is north of the equator. 而且大多数的植被也处于赤道以北
[14:17] And so, when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted toward the sun, 这样 当北半球斜向太阳时
[14:21] as it is in our spring and summer, 也就是在我们的春夏季
[14:24] the leaves come out and they breathe in carbon dioxide, 树叶长出 吸进二氧化碳
[14:28] and the amount in the atmosphere goes down. 大气中二氧化碳的含量就降低
[14:30] But when the Northern Hemisphere is tilted away from the sun, 而当南半球朝向太阳时
[14:33] as it is in our fall and winter, 也就是在我们的秋冬季
[14:36] the leaves fall and exhale carbon dioxide, 树叶掉落 呼出二氧化碳
[14:39] and the amount in the atmosphere goes back up again. 这样大气中的二氧化碳含量会再次上升
[14:43] And so, it’s as if the entire Earth 这也好比
[14:46] once each year breathes in and out. 整个地球一年吸呼一次
[14:51] So we started measuring carbon dioxide in 1 958. 我们于1958年开始测量二氧化碳
[14:56] And you can see 你可以看到
[14:58] that by the middle ’60s, when he showed my class this image, 60年代中期 也就是教授 给我们班展示这张图片的时候
[15:02] it was already clear that it was going up. 二氧化碳的含量已经明显上升了
[15:05] I respected him and learned from him so much, I followed this. 我尊敬教授 他教了我很多 我一直在关注这个
[15:09] And when I went to the Congress in the middle 1970s, 70年代中期当我进入国会后
[15:12] I helped to organize the first hearings on global warming 我帮助组织了第一个 关于全球变暖的听证会
[15:15] and asked my professor to come and be the leadoff witness. 我邀请教授前来当首席证人
[15:19] And I thought that would have such a big impact, 我本以为这会产生很重大的影响
[15:21] we’d be on the way to solving this problem, but it didn’t work that way. 我们马上就能开始着手解决这问题 但事实并非如此
[15:25] But I kept having hearings. And in 1 984 I went to the Senate 不过我持续举行听证会 1984年我进入了参议院
[15:28] and really dug deeply into this issue 开始通过科学圆桌会议及类似的机制 来真正深入讨论这个议题
[15:31] with science roundtables and the like.
[15:34] I wrote a book about it, ran for President in 1 988, 1988年我写了一本这方面的书 并去竞选总统
[15:38] partly to try to gain some visibility for that issue. 部分原因也是希望能为这个议题 争取更大的关注度
[15:41] And in 1 992 went to the White House. We passed a version of a carbon tax 1992年我进入了白宫 我们通过了碳税制度
[15:45] and some other measures to try to address this. 以及其他一些措施 以期解决这个问题
[15:47] Went to Kyoto in 1 997 to help get a treaty 到了1997年的京都 促成了一部协议
[15:51] that’s so controversial, in the US at least. 它引起了不小的争议 至少在美国
[15:55] In 2000, 2000年
[15:57] my opponent pledged to regulate CO2 and then… 我的竞争对手宣言 要控制二氧化碳排放 结果…
[16:01] That was not a pledge that was kept. 那个诺言没有被遵守
[16:04] But the point of this is 但重点在于
[16:06] all this time you can see 你一直都能看到的
[16:09] what I have seen all these years. 我这些来所看到的
[16:12] It just keeps going up. It is relentless. 它持续上升 这是个无情的现实
[16:15] And now we’re beginning to see the impact in the real world. 现在我们开始看到它对现实世界的影响
[16:19] This is Mount Kilimanjaro more than 30 years ago 这是30多年前的乞力马扎罗山
[16:23] and more recently. 以及一些现在的照片
[16:24] And a friend of mine just came back from Kilimanjaro 我的一个朋友刚刚从乞力马扎罗山回来
[16:27] with a picture he took a couple of months ago. 带回了一张他几个月前拍摄的照片
[16:30] Another friend, Lonnie Thompson, studies glaciers. 另一位朋友朗尼?汤普森研究冰川
[16:33] Here’s Lonnie with a last sliver of one of the once mighty glaciers. 这是朗尼与冰川的最后残余的照片 这冰川曾经非常壮大
[16:39] Within the decade there will be no more snows of Kilimanjaro. 10年内乞力马扎罗山将不会再会下雪
[16:44] This is happening in Glacier National Park. 这发生在国家冰川公园里
[16:47] I climbed to the top of this in 1998 with one of my daughters. 我曾在1998年与我的一个女儿 一起登上山顶
[16:51] Within 15 years, this will be the park formerly known as Glacier. 15年内 这儿将成为曾经 因冰川而闻名的公园
[16:55] Here is what’s been happening year by year to the Columbia Glacier. 这是年复一年发生在 哥伦比亚冰川的情况
[16:59] It just retreats every single year. 它每年都在后退
[17:03] And it’s a shame ’cause these glaciers are so beautiful. 这是令人羞愧的事 因为冰川如此美丽
[17:06] But those who go up to see them, 那些现在专程登顶去看冰川的人
[17:09] here’s what they’re seeing every day, now. 这就是他们每天所看到的
[17:24] In the Himalayas there’s a particular problem 在喜马拉雅山脉 还有个独特的问题
[17:26] because 40% of all the people in the world 因为世界上40%的人 从江河及泉水获取饮用水
[17:29] get their drinking water from rivers and spring systems
[17:33] that are fed more than half by the melt water 而这些饮用水源中一半以上又来自冰川
[17:37] coming off the glaciers.
[17:39] And within this next half century those 40% of the people on Earth 未来的半个世纪内
[17:40] 那地球上40%的人将因为冰川的溶解 而面临严重的水短缺
[17:43] are gonna face a very serious shortage
[17:46] because of this melting.
[17:50] Italy, the Italian Alps. 意大利 意大利阿尔卑斯山
[17:52] Same sight today. 同一个地点 今天
[17:54] An old postcard from Switzerland. 老的瑞士明信片
[17:57] Throughout the Alps, we’re seeing the same story. 整个阿尔卑斯山 我们都看到同一个情况
[18:00] It’s also true in South America. 南美同样如此
[18:02] This is Peru 1 5 years ago. 这是15年前的秘鲁
[18:05] And the same glacier today. 今日的同一个冰川
[18:08] This is Argentina 20 years ago. Same glacier today. 这是20年前的阿根廷 今日的同一个冰川
[18:13] Seventy-five years ago in Patagonia on the tip of South America. 75年前的巴塔哥尼亚 南美之巅
[18:18] This vast expanse of ice is now gone. 这片广阔的冰川消失了
[18:23] There’s a message in this. 这里面有一个讯息
[18:25] There’s a message in this.
[18:26] It is worldwide. 全世界性的
[18:28] And the ice has stories to tell us. 冰川有故事要告诉我们
[18:30] My friend, Lonnie Thompson, digs core drills in the ice. 我的朋友朗尼?汤普森在冰原上钻取冰芯
[18:34] They dig down 他们向下钻
[18:35] and they bring the core drills back up and they look at the ice 收回冰芯钻 观察冰
[18:39] and they study it. 并加以研究
[18:41] When the snow falls, it traps little bubbles of atmosphere 雪下降时也携带了大气中的小气泡
[18:45] and they can go in and measure 他们可以对其测量
[18:47] how much CO2 was in the atmosphere the year that that snow fell. 雪落下的那年大气中的二氧化碳含量
[18:52] What’s even more interesting, I think, is 我想更有趣的是
[18:54] they can measure the different isotopes of oxygen 他们可以测量不同的氧同位素
[18:58] and figure out a very precise thermometer 就可以计算出一个非常准确的温度计
[19:02] and tell you what the temperature was 告诉你那小气泡被困住并落下那年的温度
[19:04] the year that that bubble was trapped in the snow as it fell.
[19:09] When I was in Antarctica, I saw cores like this. 我在南极洲时 我看到了这些冰芯
[19:13] And a guy looked at it. He said, 有个人看着它
[19:15] “Right here is where the US Congress passed the Clean Air Act.” 说道 这儿正是美国国会通过 空气洁净法令的时候
[19:19] And I couldn’t believe it. 我不相信
[19:20] But you can see the difference with the naked eye. 但你可以用肉眼看出差别
[19:22] Just a couple of years after that law was passed, 法令通过后仅仅几年
[19:25] it’s very clearly distinguishable. 区别十分明显
[19:28] They can count back year by year 他们可以一年年地回溯
[19:31] the same way a forester reads tree rings. 就像林务员观察树轮
[19:34] And you can see each annual layer from the melting and re-freezing, 你可以看到溶解和再冰冻 所形成的年层
[19:38] so they can go back in a lot of these mountain glaciers 1,000 years. 这样他们可以回溯到1000年前的高山冰川
[19:43] And they constructed a thermometer of the temperature. 他们构造了一个温度指示
[19:46] The blue is cold and the red is warm. 蓝端显示冷 红端显示热
[19:50] Now, I show this for a couple of reasons. 我现在展示这个是出于如下一些原因
[19:54] Number one, the so-called skeptics will sometimes say, 第一 所谓的怀疑论者有时候可能说
[19:59] “Oh, this whole thing, this is a cyclical phenomenon. “哦 这整个事情 就是一个循环现象
[20:02] “There was a medieval warming period, after all.” 毕竟在中世纪也曾有一个温暖期
[20:05] Well, yeah, there was. There it is, right there. 的确是有 就在那儿
[20:10] There are two others. 还有另外两个
[20:12] But compared to what’s going on now, 但是与现在的情况比较
[20:15] there’s just no comparison. 它们无法相互比较
[20:17] So if you look at 1,000 years’ worth of temperature 所以如果你看1000年的温度值
[20:21] and compare it to 1,000 years of CO2, 并与1000年的二氧化碳水平比较
[20:24] you can see how closely they fit together. 你可以看到它们是 多么紧密地联系在一起
[20:29] Now, 1,000 years of CO2 in the mountain glaciers, 现在 高山冰川里1000年的二氧化碳
[20:33] that’s one thing. 是一回事
[20:34] But in Antarctica, they can go back 650,000 years. 但在南极洲 可以回溯到65万年前
[20:41] This incidentally is the first time 顺带提一句 这是少数科学家之外的人 首次看到这幅图片
[20:43] anybody outside of a small group of scientists has seen this image.
[20:50] This is the present day era, 这是目前的时期
[20:53] and that’s the last ice age. 那是上一次冰川期
[20:55] Then it goes up. We’re going back in time now 650,000 years. 然后温度上升 我们开始退回到65万年前
[20:59] That’s the period of warming between the last two ice ages. 那是上两个冰川期之间的温暖期
[21:03] That’s the second and third ice age back. 然后往回数第2跟第3个冰川期
[21:06] Fourth, fifth, sixth 第4 第5 第6
[21:09] and seventh ice age back. 往回数第7个冰川期
[21:12] Now, an important point. 好了 重点来了
[21:14] In all of this time, 650,000 years, 在所有65万年期间
[21:20] the CO2 level has never gone above 二氧化碳水平从来没有超过百万分之300
[21:22] 300 parts per million.
[21:26] Now, as I said, they can also measure temperature. 正如我说的 他们也可以测量温度
[21:28] Here’s what the temperature has been on our Earth. 这是我们地球上曾经的温度
[21:33] Now, one thing that kind of jumps out at you is… 好了 跳到你面前的事情是
[21:37] Well, let me put it this way. If my classmate from the sixth grade 好 让我这么说
[21:38] 如果我那个问非洲南美关系的 六年级同学在这儿
[21:40] that talked about Africa and South America were here,
[21:43] he would say, “Did they ever fit together?” 他会问:”他们曾经合在一起吗?”
[21:48] “Most ridiculous thing I’ve ever heard.” “那是我所听到的最荒谬的事”
[21:50] But they did, of course. 但是事实当然如此
[21:52] And the relationship is actually very complicated. 其之间的关系是非常复杂的
[21:56] But there is one relationship that is far more powerful 但有一个关系 比所有其他的关系具有更大的作用
[21:59] than all the others and it is this.
[22:00] 就是这个
[22:02] When there is more carbon dioxide, the temperature gets warmer 二氧化碳越多 温度就越高
[22:06] because it traps more heat from the sun inside. 因为它吸收太阳更多的热
[22:10] In the parts of the United States that contain the modern cities 在美国北线(northern tier)等地区 包括克利夫兰 底特律 纽约等现代城市
[22:14] of Cleveland, Detroit, New York, in the northern tier,
[22:19] this is the difference between a nice day 这是一个好天气与结着一里厚的冰的差距
[22:22] and having a mile of ice over your head.
[22:27] Keep that in mind when you look at this fact. 当你看这个数据的时候 记住
[22:31] Carbon dioxide, 二氧化碳
[22:33] having never gone above 300 parts per million, 从来没有超过百万分之300
[22:37] here is where CO2 is now. 这是现在二氧化碳的水平
[22:44] Way above where it’s ever been 远远超过有记录以来的水平
[22:47] as far back as this record will measure.
[22:50] Now, if you’ll bear with me, I wanna really emphasize this point. 如果您有耐心 我想再强调一下这一点
[22:53] The crew here 这儿的工作人员设法教我使用这个装置
[22:55] has tried to teach me how to use this contraption here.
[22:59] So, if I don’t kill myself, I’ll… 所以 如果不出什么意外 我要…
[23:09] It’s already right here. 它已经在这了
[23:13] Look how far above the natural cycle this is, 看看它比自然循环高出多少
[23:17] and we’ve done that. 我们已经实现到这了
[23:20] But, ladies and gentlemen, in the next 50 years, 但是 女士们先生们 接下来的50年内
[23:23] really, in less than 50 years, 确切来说 少于50年
[23:26] it’s gonna continue to go up. 它将持续上升
[23:28] When some of these children who are here are my age, 当这里的一些孩子 活到我现在这个年纪的时候
[23:32] here is what it’s going to be in less than 50 years. 这就是50年之内它会到哪里
[23:43] You’ve heard of off the charts. 你们看到已经超出图表了
[23:48] Within less than 50 years, it’ll be here. 少于50年之内 就会达到这里
[23:52] There’s not a single fact or date or number 这里整理出用于说明的这些 事实、数据或数字
[23:55] that’s been used to make this up that’s in any controversy.
[23:57] 都是没有争议的
[23:58] The so-called skeptics look at this and they say,
[23:59] 所谓的怀疑论者看到这个会说
[24:01] (预测 无管制石油燃烧50年的结果)
[24:03] “So? That seems perfectly okay.” 那又怎样? 那看起来完全没问题啊
[24:03] “So? That seems perfectly okay.”
[24:13] Well, 那么
[24:15] again, if on the temperature side, 再一次 如果在温度指示上
[24:19] if this much on the cold side is a mile of ice over our heads, 冷的这端相当于我们头上有一里厚的冰
[24:25] what would that much on the warm side be? 那么在热端会是怎样个情况?
[24:31] Ultimately this is really not a political issue 最终 这真的不是一个政治议题
[24:36] so much as a moral issue. 更是一个道德议题
[24:39] If we allow that to happen, 如果我们允许这种情况发生
[24:42] it is deeply unethical. 是非常不道德的
[24:47] I had such faith in our democratic system, 我对我们的民主系统 自治政府 抱着深厚的信念
[24:50] our self-government.
[24:53] I actually thought and believed 我确实以为并相信
[24:57] that the story would be compelling enough to cause a real sea change 这情况能紧迫到足以彻底改变
[25:01] in the way the Congress reacted to that issue. 国会对这个议题的看法
[25:05] I thought they would be startled, too. 我以为他们也会吃惊的
[25:08] And they weren’t. 但是没有
[25:14] The struggles, 那些奋斗
[25:16] the victories that aren’t really victories, the defeats that aren’t really defeats. 并不是真正胜利的胜利 并不是真正失败的失败
[25:22] They can serve to magnify the significance 他们可以为放大一些 琐碎进步的重要性而工作
[25:25] of some trivial step forward,
[25:29] exaggerate the seeming importance 也可以夸大一些重大挫折的表面上的重要性
[25:33] of some massive setback.
[25:40] April 3, 1 989. 1989年4月3日
[25:44] My son pulled loose from my hand (戈尔参议院的儿子 6岁…) 我儿子松开我的手
[25:47] and chased his friend across the street. (…在体育场附近被车撞 情形严重) 跨街去追他的朋友
[25:52] He was six years old. (急救中心) 他那时6岁
[25:57] The machine was breathing for him. 器械在帮助他呼吸
[26:03] We were possibly going to lose him. 我们可能会失去他
[26:11] He finally took a breath. 但他终于喘过气来
[26:17] We stayed in the hospital for a month. 我们在医院呆了一个月
[26:22] It was almost as if 这就像你看着日历 然后…
[26:25] you could look at that calendar and just go…
[26:30] And everything just flew off. 而所有的东西就那么流逝
[26:32] Seemed trivial, insignificant. 看起来琐碎 无关紧要
[26:36] He was so brave. He was such… 他是那么勇敢 他是那么…
[26:39] He was such a brave guy. 他真是个勇敢的人
[26:45] It just turned my whole world upside down 它颠倒了我的生活
[26:48] and then shook it until everything fell out. 它震撼我每一根神经直到精疲力竭
[26:52] My way of being in the world, it just changed everything for me. 我在这世界的存在方式 它改变了我的一切
[26:58] How should I spend my time on this Earth? 我该怎么过我在地球上的日子?
[27:06] I really dug in, 对此我想得很深入
[27:09] trying to learn about it much more deeply. 试着更深地学习它
[27:13] I went to Antarctica. 我去了南极洲
[27:15] Went to the South Pole, the North Pole, the Amazon. 去了南极点 北极点 亚马孙
[27:18] Went to places where scientists could help me understand 去了那些科学家能够帮我理解那议题中
[27:22] parts of the issue that
[27:25] I didn’t really understand in depth. 我并没有很透彻理解的部分
[27:32] The possibility of losing what was most precious to me. 失去对于我们最宝贵的东西的可能性
[27:37] I gained an ability 我获得了一种我以前 可能从来不曾具有的能力
[27:41] that maybe I didn’t have before.
[27:46] But when I felt it, 但是当我感觉到它时
[27:48] I felt that we could really lose it, 我觉得我们真的会失去它
[27:55] that what we take for granted might not be here for our children. 那些我们认为理所当然的东西 可能不会留存到我们的下一代了
[28:02] These are actual measurements of atmospheric temperatures 这些是自从南北战争之后
[28:05] since our Civil War. 大气温度的实际测量数据
[28:07] In any given year, it might look like it’s going down, 某些年看起来或许是在下降
[28:10] but the overall trend is extremely clear. 但总的趋势是相当清楚的
[28:13] And in recent years, 在现在近几年
[28:15] it’s uninterrupted and it is intensifying. 这个趋势没有中断而且逐渐增强
[28:20] In fact, if you look at the 1 0 hottest years ever measured 事实上 如果你注意到 大气测量记录中最热的10年
[28:23] in this atmospheric record,
[28:26] they’ve all occurred in the last 1 4 years. 它们都出现在最近的14年
[28:29] And the hottest of all was 2005. 而最热的就是2005年
[28:33] We have already seen some of the heat waves 我们已经看到一些热浪
[28:37] that are similar to what scientists are saying 类似于一些科学家所言变得越来越频繁
[28:39] are gonna be a lot more common.
[28:41] Couple of years ago in Europe they had that massive heat wave (2003年欧洲热浪 估计死亡) 一些年前欧洲曾经发生过 导致3.5万人死亡的热浪
[28:44] that killed 35,000 people.
[28:48] India didn’t get as much attention, 印度没有得到较大的关注
[28:51] but the same year the temperature there went 但在同一年
[28:52] (印度 2003年6月 超过1400人死亡) 那儿的最高温度达到了122华氏度
[28:53] to 1 22 degrees Fahrenheit.
[28:57] This past summer in the American West, 去年夏季 在美国西部
[29:00] there were a lot of cities that broke all-time records for high temperatures 许多城市的天气记录都被打破 包括最高温记录
[29:03] and number of consecutive days with a 1 00-degree temperature or more. 以及气温连续超过100度的天数记录
[29:09] Two hundred cities and towns in the west set all-time records. 200多个西部城镇都改写了天气记录
[29:14] And in the east there were a lot of cities that did the same thing. 东部许多城市也一样
[29:18] Including, incidentally, New Orleans. 当然 也包括新奥尔良
[29:22] So the temperature increases are taking place all over the world, 也就是温度上升在全世界发生
[29:25] including in the oceans. 甚至包括大洋
[29:28] This is the natural range of variability for temperature in the oceans. 这是大洋温度变化的自然界限
[29:32] You know, people say, “Oh, it’s just natural. 你知道 有人说:”哦 这是自然的
[29:34] “It goes up and down, so don’t worry about it.” 温度有高有低 不用担心”
[29:36] This is the range that would be expected over the last 60 years, 这本应是过去60年的范围
[29:41] but the scientists who specialize in global warming have computer models 但是专长于全球变暖的科学家 所设计的计算模型
[29:45] that long ago predicted this range of temperature increase. 在很早以前就预测了这个升温的范围
[29:50] Now I’m gonna show you, recently released, 现在我将展示最近发表的
[29:53] the actual ocean temperatures. 真实的大洋温度
[29:57] And, of course, when the oceans get warmer, that causes stronger storms. 还有当然 海洋温度越高 形成的风暴就越强
[30:02] We have seen in the last couple of years 过去这么多年我们已经看到 许多大飓风
[30:04] a lot of big hurricanes.
[30:06] Hurricane Jeanne and Frances and Ivan were among them. 包括飓风吉妮 法兰西斯和伊万飓风
[30:11] And the same year that we had that string of big hurricanes, 在我们遭受一系列大飓风的同一年
[30:15] we also set an all-time record for tornadoes in the United States. 我们的龙卷风也打破了美国纪录
[30:19] Japan again didn’t get as much attention in our news media, 我们的媒体也没有怎么注意日本
[30:23] but they set an all-time record for typhoons. 但他们也打破了台风记录
[30:26] Previous record was seven. 上一次的记录是7次
[30:27] Here are all 1 0 of the ones they had in 2004. 而2004年则是10次
[30:32] The science textbooks have had to be rewritten 科学教科书必须重写
[30:34] because they say that it’s impossible to have a hurricane in the South Atlantic. 因为上面说南大西洋是不会形成飓风的
[30:38] But the same year the first one ever hit Brazil. 但是同一年巴西遭受了 南大西洋的第一次飓风袭击
[30:41] Summer of 2005 has been one for the books. 2005年的夏季值得大书特书
[30:44] The first one was Emily that socked into Yucatan. 艾米丽成为重击尤卡坦半岛的第一个飓风
[30:48] Then Hurricane Dennis came along and it did a lot of damage, 接下来是丹尼斯飓风造成了巨大损害
[30:52] including to the oil industry. 包括石油工业
[30:53] This is the largest oil platform in the world after Dennis went through. 这是世界最大的石油平台 被丹尼斯拜访过后的样子
[30:58] This one was driven into the bridge at Mobile. 这个飓风袭击了莫比尔上的大桥
[31:01] And then, of course, came Katrina. 接下来 当然就是卡特里娜飓风
[31:05] It’s worth remembering that when it hit Florida, it was a Category One. 值得一提的是 当它袭击 佛罗里达的时候只是个一级飓风
[31:10] But it killed a lot of people and caused billions of dollars’ worth of damage. 不过它仍造成大量的人员伤亡 及数十亿美元的财产损失
[31:14] And then what happened? 接下来发生了什么?
[31:16] Before it hit New Orleans, 在它袭击新奥尔良之前
[31:18] it went over warmer waters. 它经过了暖水区域
[31:21] As the water temperature increases, 水温上升
[31:24] the wind velocity increases 造成风速增加
[31:27] and the moisture content increases. 及水分含量增加
[31:30] And you’ll see Hurricane Katrina form over Florida. 你们可以看到卡特里娜飓风 形成于佛罗里达上空
[31:33] And then as it comes into the gulf over that warm water, 然后当它经过海湾地区的暖水区域
[31:37] it picks up that energy and gets stronger and stronger and stronger. 它获取能量而变得越来越来越强
[31:41] Look at that hurricane’s eye. 看那飓风眼
[31:43] And, of course, the consequences were so horrendous, 当然 后果是那么可怕
[31:48] there are no words to describe it. 以至于无法用语言形容
[32:16] Yeah, we’re getting reports and calls that are just breaking my heart. 我们接到了许多令人心痛的报告和电话
[32:19] From people saying, “I’ve been in my attic. I can’t take it anymore. 有人报告说:”我呆在阁楼上 我没办法再忍受了
[32:23] “The water is up to my neck. I don’t think I can hold out. “ 水已经升到我脖子处 我想我撑不住了”
[32:28] And that’s happening as we speak. 这就在发生在我们说话的时候
[32:30] We told everybody the importance of the 1 7th Street Canal issue. 我们告诉过大家 17街泄水道问题的严重性
[32:35] We said, “Please, please, take care of this. 我们说:”拜托 请务必要解决
[32:37] “We don’t care what you do. Figure it out. “ 我们不管你们怎么做 一定要解决”
[32:47] Something new for America. 对于美国来说一些新的东西
[32:53] But how in God’s name could that happen here? 上帝啊为什么它会发生在这里?
[33:00] There had been warnings that hurricanes would get stronger. 曾有警告说飓风会愈发强大
[33:04] There were warnings that this hurricane, 袭击的前几天 就有警告说 这个飓风会冲破大堤
[33:07] days before it hit, would breach the levees,
[33:11] would cause the kind of damage that it ultimately did cause. 会造成损害 而这些损害最终确实造成了
[33:15] And one question we as a people need to decide 一个问题 作为一个人 我们需要决定
[33:19] is how we react when we hear warnings 当我们听到顶尖科学家 发出警告时该如何反应
[33:23] from the leading scientists in the world.
[33:27] There was another storm in the 1 930s of a different kind. 30年代欧洲大陆 曾出现一个不同类型的风暴
[33:31] A horrible, unprecedented storm in continental Europe, 一个可怕的 空前的风暴
[33:35] and Winston Churchill warned the people of England 温斯顿?丘吉尔曾经警告过英国人民
[33:41] that it was different from anything that had ever happened before 那是一个从来没有碰到过的情况
[33:45] and they had to get ready for it. 他们必须为此做好准备
[33:48] And a lot of people did not want to believe it. 许多人不愿意相信这点
[33:51] And he got real impatient with all the dithering. 他对人们的犹豫不决感到很不耐烦
[33:55] And he said this, 他说了
[33:56] “继续拖延 折中
[33:59] 宽慰和莫名其妙的权宜之计的 时代已经接近尾声
[34:04] 我们将开始生活于其后果之中”
[34:06] (温斯顿?丘吉尔爵士 1936年11月12日)
[34:13] Making mistakes in generations and centuries past 过去的时代与世纪所犯的错误
[34:17] would have consequences that we could overcome. 其产生的结果是我们可以战胜的
[34:21] We don’t have that luxury anymore. 我们再不能那样高枕无忧了
[34:24] We didn’t ask for it, 我们并没有要它来
[34:27] but here it is. 但它还是来了
[34:29] Al Gore is the winner of the national popular vote. 阿尔?戈尔是 全国普选的胜者
[34:32] But the state of Florida, whomever wins there wins the White House. 但赢得佛罗里达州的人才能赢得总统宝座
[34:36] We call Florida, in the Al Gore column… 我们把佛洲划入戈尔的胜利…
[34:38] Bulletin: Florida pulled back into the undecided column. 快报: 佛洲被重新宣布为尚未决定的洲
[34:42] George Bush is the president elect of the United States. He is… 乔治?布什赢得了美国总统 他是…
[34:45] Florida goes Bush. The presidency is Bush. That’s it. 佛州最终由布什赢得 布什获到了总统宝座 就是这样
[34:48] And at 2:1 8 this morning, we project… 早上2:18 我们预计…
[34:52] All right, we’re officially saying that Florida is too close to call. 我们正式宣布佛州结果太过接近 难以分出胜负
[35:20] While I strongly disagree with the court’s decision, 在强烈反对法院的决定的同时
[35:24] I accept it. 我接受
[35:26] I accept the finality of this outcome. 我接受最终的结果
[35:38] …do solemnly swear… …郑重发誓…
[35:39] I, George Walker Bush, do solemnly swear… 我 乔治?沃克?布什庄严宣誓…
[35:41] … that I will faithfully execute the Office of President… …我将忠实地履行 美利坚合众国总统的职责…
[35:56] Well, that was a hard blow, but… 那是一个重大的打击 但是…
[36:01] What do you do? You… 你要怎么做? 你…
[36:06] You make the best of it. 你尽力往好的方面看
[36:19] It brought into clear focus 它使我更加清晰的注视 我这么多年来所追求的使命
[36:23] the mission that I had been pursuing
[36:27] for all these years, and
[36:32] I started giving the slide show again. 我再度开始巡展我的幻灯片
[36:43] One often unnoticed effect of global warming 一个常常被忽略的全球变暖的效应
[36:46] is it causes more precipitation, 是它形成了更多的降水
[36:48] but more of it coming in one-time big storm events. 但这些往往都在一次性 的大暴雨中降下了
[36:52] Because the evaporation off the oceans puts all the moisture up there, 因为大洋的蒸发使水分上升
[36:56] when storm conditions trigger the downpour, more of it falls down. 当风暴引发暴雨 其雨量更大
[36:59] when storm conditions trigger the downpour, more of it falls down.
[36:59] The insurance industry has actually noticed this. 保险业开始注意到这点
[37:03] Their recovered losses are going up. 他们所支付的损失赔偿费用持续上升
[37:05] You see the damage from these severe weather events? 看到这恶劣天气所造成的损害了没?
[37:08] And 2005 is not even on this yet. 而2005年还都不在上面
[37:12] When it does, it’ll be off that chart. 如果它在上面 肯定会超出这图表
[37:15] Europe has just had a year very similar to the one we’ve had 欧洲去年和我们非常像
[37:20] where they say nature’s been going crazy. 当时他们说自然发疯了
[37:23] (奥地利 2005年8月23日)
[37:23] All kinds of unusual catastrophes, 各种不正常的灾害
[37:25] like a nature hike through the Book of Revelations. (瑞士 2005年8月23日)
[37:26] 如同《启示录》里灾难预言的应验
[37:27] (瑞士 布里恩茨 2005年8月26日)
[37:30] Flooding in Asia. 亚洲洪水
[37:31] Mumbai, India this past July. 印度孟买 这年的7月
[37:34] Thirty-seven inches of rain in 24 hours. 24小时内37英尺的雨量 是目前为止
[37:38] By far, the largest downpour
[37:40] 全印度所有城市中 下的最大的豪雨
[37:41] that any city in India has ever received.
[37:45] Lot of flooding in China, also. 同样中国也频繁发生洪水
[37:48] Global warming, paradoxically, causes not only more flooding, 说也奇怪 全球变暖并不仅造成更多洪水
[37:53] but also more drought. 也导致更多干旱
[37:55] This neighboring province right next door 当这些地区发洪水的时候
[37:58] had a severe drought at the same time these areas were flooding.
[38:00] 相邻的省份却经历着严重的干旱
[38:03] One of the reasons for this has to do with the fact 发生此事的原因之一是
[38:06] that global warming not only increases precipitation worldwide, 全球变暖不仅仅增加全世界的降水
[38:11] but it also relocates the precipitation. 也重新分配降水
[38:15] And focus most of all on this part of Africa 其影响最集中在非洲的这个地区
[38:19] just on the edge of the Sahara. 就在撒哈拉沙漠的边缘
[38:22] Unbelievable tragedies have been unfolding there, 难以置信的灾难在此处发生
[38:25] and there are a lot of reasons for it. 这是有很多原因的
[38:28] But Darfur and Niger are among those tragedies. 但是达尔福尔和尼日尔都频遭天灾
[38:33] And one of the factors that has been compounding them 其中一个使其恶化的因素
[38:36] is the lack of rainfall and the increasing drought. 就是雨量不足与干旱变长
[38:40] This is Lake Chad, once one of the largest lakes in the world. 这是乍得湖 原是世界上最大的湖泊之一
[38:46] It has dried up over the last few decades to almost nothing, 它在过去几十年里几乎缩减至消失
[38:51] vastly complicating the other problems that they also have. 这使当地的其他问题也愈发复杂
[38:55] The second reason 这奇怪现象的第二个原因
[38:57] why this is a paradox.
[39:00] Global warming creates more evaporation off the oceans 全球变暖加剧了大洋的蒸发而形成云
[39:04] to seed the clouds,
[39:06] but it sucks moisture out of the soil. 但它吸出了土壤里的水分
[39:10] Soil evaporation increases dramatically 在高温作用下 土壤蒸发戏剧性地加剧
[39:13] with higher temperatures.
[39:16] And that has consequences for us in the United States, as well. 我们美国也承受了其后果
[39:21] So this is the Carthage exit. 这就是迦太基出口
[39:25] When I was 1 4 years old, I totaled the family car 我14岁时撞毁了家里的汽车
[39:29] right there.
[39:30] 就在那儿
[39:32] Went off that shoulder, turned it over. 冲上路肩 车翻了过来
[39:36] And see this Black Angus bull? 看到那头黑安格斯牛没?
[39:40] We raised Black Angus. 我们养过黑安格斯牛
[39:46] My father was named Breeder of the Month. 我父亲被称作每月饲养之星
[39:51] He grew up on a farm. 他在农场长大
[39:54] All through his career in the Senate 在他参议员的整个生涯中
[39:57] he continued to come back here and raise cattle. 他每年都抽出时间回到这里养牛
[40:01] Learning it from your dad on the land, 在地里向父亲学习是蛮特别的
[40:07] that’s really something special.
[40:12] My childhood upbringing was a little unusual in the sense that 我的童年生活也因此变得不寻常
[40:18] I spent eight months of each year in Washington DC 我每年在华盛顿待8个月的时间 住在一间小的酒店公寓
[40:21] in a small little hotel apartment.
[40:26] And then the other four months were spent here on this big, beautiful farm. 余下的4个月我待在这个漂亮的大农场
[40:32] I had a dog here. 这里我养了条狗
[40:35] I had a pony here. 这里我养了匹马
[40:37] I could shoot my rifle here. 在这里我可以射我的步枪
[40:39] I could go swimming in the river here. 在这里我可以去河里游泳
[40:44] Go out and lay down in the grass. 出去躺在芳草间
[40:54] As a kid, it took me a while 作为个孩子 我花了不少时间
[40:57] to learn the difference between fun and work.
[40:57] 才分清什么是玩 什么是工作
[41:06] The places where people live were chosen 人们选择自己生活的地方是根据
[41:10] because of the climate pattern 地球自上个冰河世纪结束后
[41:12] that has been pretty much the same on Earth
[41:17] since the end of the last ice age 1 1, 000 years ago. 11000年内几乎都保持不变的气候规律
[41:22] Here, on this farm, the patterns are changing. 而现在这个农场 这个规律在发生变化
[41:26] And it seems gradual in the course of a human lifetime 以人类的生命周期来看 它似乎发生得很缓慢
[41:30] but in the course of time, as defined by this river, 但是以这条河流所定义的时间来看
[41:35] it’s happening very, very quickly. 它发生得非常非常快
[41:41] Two canaries in the coal mine. 两只煤矿里的金丝雀
[41:44] First one is in the Arctic. 第一只在北极
[41:46] This, of course, is the Arctic Ocean, the floating ice cap. 它当然就是北冰洋 漂浮的冰帽
[41:49] Greenland, on its side there. 格林兰岛在它的旁边
[41:52] I say canary in the coal mine 我说煤矿里的金丝雀
[41:54] because the Arctic is one of the two regions of the world 因为北极是现在地球上
[41:57] that is experiencing faster impacts 受全球变暖冲击较快的两个地方之一
[42:00] from global warming.
[42:02] from global warming.
[42:02] This is the largest ice shelf in the Arctic, 这是北极最大的冰架
[42:05] the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf. Ward Hunt冰架
[42:08] It just cracked in half three years ago. 它三年前刚刚崩成两半
[42:10] The scientists were astonished. 科学家们震惊了
[42:12] These are called drunken trees just going every which way. 这些东倒西歪的树被称为醉树
[42:16] This is not caused by wind damage or alcohol consumption. 它不是由狂风或酗酒造成的
[42:19] These trees put their roots down in the permafrost, 这些树扎根于永久冻土中
[42:25] and the permafrost is thawing. 而永久冻土层正在融化
[42:26] And so they just go every which way now. 所以它们才如此东倒西歪
[42:30] This building was built on the permafrost 这建筑就建在永久冻土层上
[42:33] and has collapsed as the permafrost thaws. 当它溶解后 房子也倒塌了
[42:36] This woman’s house has had to be abandoned. 这妇人的房子无奈要被遗弃
[42:39] The pipeline is suffering a great deal of structural damage. 管道也正遭受结构性的损伤
[42:44] And incidentally, the oil that they want to produce in that protected area 顺便提一下 我所反对的那个在北阿拉斯加
[42:49] in Northern Alaska, which I hope they don’t, 保护区内进行的石油生产
[42:51] they have to depend on trucks to go in and out of there. 必须依靠卡车进行进出运输
[42:55] And the trucks go over the frozen ground. 卡车在冻土上来回穿梭
[42:59] This shows the number of days that the tundra in Alaska is 这显示的是卡车 在阿拉斯加冻原上的每年可行驶天数
[43:03] frozen enough to drive on it.
[43:05] Thirty-five years ago, 225 days a year. 从35年前的225天缩减到现在的75天
[43:10] Now it’s below 75 days a year
[43:14] because the spring comes earlier and the fall comes later 因为春天来得更早了 秋天来得更晚了
[43:18] and the temperatures just keep on going up. 温度在持续上升
[43:21] I went up to the North Pole. 我去过北极点
[43:23] I went under that ice cap in a nuclear submarine 我坐核潜艇去了冰帽下面
[43:27] that surfaced through the ice like this. 它升到冰面上就像这样
[43:30] Since they started patrolling in 1957, 自从他们1957年开始巡逻以来
[43:33] they have gone under the ice 他们潜到冰面下
[43:36] and measured with their radar looking upwards 然后向上用雷达测量其厚度
[43:39] to measure how thick it is
[43:41] because they can only surface in areas 因为他们只能在厚度小于3.5英尺的 地方进行冰面航行
[43:42] where it’s three and a half feet thick or less.
[43:46] So they have kept a meticulous record 所以他们保留着精确的记录
[43:49] and they wouldn’t release it because it was national security. 而他们不肯公开这些数据 因为它是国家机密
[43:52] I went up there in order to persuade them to release it, and they did. 我到那里劝说他们公开数据 最后成功了
[43:55] And here’s what that record shows. 而这就是那些记录所显示的
[43:58] Starting in 1 970, there was a precipitous drop-off 从1970年开始 北极冰帽的总量、广度和厚度都急剧下降
[44:02] in the amount and extent and thickness of the Arctic ice cap.
[44:07] It has diminished by 40% in 40 years. 它在40年内减少了40%
[44:11] And there are now two major studies showing 而另外两个重要研究表明
[44:14] that within the next 50 to 70 years, 未来50至70年内
[44:16] in summertime it will be completely gone. 在夏季 北极冰帽将完全消失
[44:19] Now, you might say, “Why is that a problem?” 现在 你可能会问:”这算什么问题?”
[44:22] And “How could the Arctic ice cap actually melt so quickly?” 及”北极冰帽究竟怎么能溶解得这么快?”
[44:28] When the sun’s rays hit the ice, 当太阳的光线射到冰上
[44:30] more than 90% of it bounces off right back into space like a mirror. 其90%以上都像被射在 镜子上一样被反射了回去
[44:35] But when it hits the open ocean, more than 90% of it is absorbed. 但当它射到空旷的海洋 90%以上都被吸收了
[44:39] And so, as the surrounding water gets warmer, 这样 周围的海水升温
[44:42] it speeds up the melting of the ice. 会加速冰的融解
[44:46] Right now, the Arctic ice cap acts like a giant mirror. 现在 北极冰帽就像个巨大的镜子
[44:49] All the sun’s rays bounce off, more than 90%. 超过90%的太阳光都被反射了回去
[44:53] It keeps the Earth cooler. 它保持了地球的凉爽
[44:55] But as it melts 但一旦它融化
[44:57] and the open ocean receives that sun’s energy instead, 空旷的海洋将吸收90%以上的太阳能量
[45:00] more than 90% is absorbed.
[45:02] So there is a faster buildup of heat here, 所以北冰洋北极点以及整个北极地区
[45:06] at the North Pole, in the Arctic Ocean,
[45:09] and the Arctic generally than anywhere else on the planet. 就会比地球其它地方更快地累积热量
[45:14] That’s not good for creatures like polar bears who depend on the ice. 对于依冰而生的生物 例如北极熊 这不是一个好消息
[45:20] A new scientific study shows that 一项新的科学研究说
[45:22] for the first time they’re finding polar bears that have actually drowned, 他们第一次发现北极熊淹死
[45:29] swimming long distances, up to 60 miles, to find the ice. 为了寻找冰面连续游泳60里而淹死
[45:33] And they didn’t find that before. 以前从来没有发现过这种情况
[45:36] But what does it mean to us? 那对于我们意味着什么?
[45:38] To look at a vast expanse of open water 看看这片在我们地球的顶端
[45:42] at the top of our world that used to be covered by ice. 原来一直被冰覆盖的广阔空旷水域
[45:46] We ought to care a lot 我们应当考虑许多
[45:48] because it has planetary effects. 因为它将对整个地球产生影响
[45:51] The Earth’s climate is like a big engine for redistributing heat 地球的气候就像个对从赤道到极点的热量
[45:56] from the equator to the poles. 进行再分配的巨大引擎
[45:58] And it does that by means of ocean currents and wind currents. 它的工作手段是靠海水流动和空气流动
[46:02] They tell us, the scientists do, that the Earth’s climate is a nonlinear system. 科学家告诉我们 地球的气候是一个非线型系统
[46:06] Just a fancy way they have of saying 这样说大家可能不明白
[46:10] that the changes are not all just gradual. 改变不全是缓缓的
[46:13] Some of them come suddenly, in big jumps. 有些变化突然而来 变化幅度巨大
[46:16] On a worldwide basis, the annual average temperature is 世界的年平均气温约为58华氏度
[46:20] about 58 degrees Fahrenheit.
[46:23] If we have an increase of five degrees, 如果我们在投影的下端
[46:27] which is on the low end of the projections, 增加5度
[46:30] look at how that translates globally. 看看它转换成全球温度会如何
[46:32] That means an increase of only one degree at the equator, 也就是赤道增加1度
[46:36] but more than 1 2 degrees at the pole. 在极点会增加12度以上
[46:39] And so all those wind and ocean current patterns 结果在上个冰川期后形成
[46:42] that have formed since the last ice age and have been relatively stable, 并稳定下来的风流和洋流
[46:47] they’re all up in the air and they change. 他们都会没有去向并改变
[46:50] And one of the ones they’re most worried about, 他们花费了很多时间去研究
[46:53] where they’ve spent a lot of time studying the problem, 且最为担心的一个问题
[46:56] is in the North Atlantic 就是北大西洋范围
[46:59] where the Gulf Stream comes up and meets the cold winds 在这里墨西哥湾流上来
[47:00] 遇到了离开北极越过格陵兰的冷风
[47:01] coming off the Arctic over Greenland.
[47:04] And that evaporates so that the heat out of the Gulf Stream 其蒸发掉墨西哥湾流的热量
[47:08] and the steam is carried over to Western Europe 蒸汽被盛行风和地球自转带到西欧
[47:10] by the prevailing winds and the Earth’s rotation.
[47:13] But isn’t it interesting that the whole ocean current system 很有意思
[47:14] 整个洋流系统都被这个环路连在了一起
[47:15] is all linked together in this loop?
[47:18] They call it the ocean conveyor. 人们称之为海洋传送
[47:21] And the red are the warm surface currents. 红色表示的是海洋表面的暖流
[47:24] The Gulf Stream is the best known of them. 最著名的是墨西哥湾流
[47:27] But the blue represent the cold currents 蓝色代表的是反向流动的寒流
[47:30] running in the opposite direction,
[47:32] and we don’t see them at all because they run along the bottom of the ocean. 它们在海底流动 因此我们看不见
[47:37] Up in the North Atlantic, after that heat is pulled out, 在北大西洋 当热量被带走后
[47:42] what’s left behind is colder water and saltier water 剩下的只有更冷且更咸的海水
[47:45] because the salt doesn’t go anywhere. 因为盐分哪里都去不了
[47:48] And so that makes it denser and heavier. 这样海水的密度和质量增加
[47:51] And so that cold, dense, heavy water sinks 那冰冷 质密 沉重的海水
[47:53] 以每秒50亿加仑的速度下沉
[47:53] at the rate of five billion gallons per second.
[47:59] And then that pulls that current back south. 拉动洋流回到南方
[48:03] At the end of the last ice age, 在上个冰川期的末期
[48:05] as the last glacier was receding from North America, 当最后的冰川在北美渐渐融化
[48:05] as the last glacier was receding from North America,
[48:09] the ice melted and a giant pool of fresh water 冰雪融化并在北美形成一个巨大的淡水湖
[48:13] formed in North America.
[48:15] And the Great Lakes are the remnants of that huge lake. 五大湖就是那个巨湖的剩余部分
[48:19] An ice dam on the eastern border formed and one day it broke. 在东部边界形成的冰堤破裂了
[48:25] And all that fresh water came rushing out, 淡水汹涌外泄
[48:28] ripping open the St. Lawrence there, 劈开圣劳伦斯湾
[48:31] and it diluted the salty, dense, cold water, 它稀释了那又咸又密冰冷的水
[48:34] made it fresher and lighter, so it stopped sinking. 使其淡化、变轻 从而停止下沉
[48:39] And that pump shut off. “水泵”停止运转
[48:42] And the heat transfer stopped. 热量传送停止
[48:44] And Europe went back into an ice age for another 900 to 1,000 years. 欧洲重回冰川期 时间长达900到1000年
[48:49] And the change from conditions like we have here today 从我们现在的样子到冰川期
[48:53] to an ice age
[48:55] took place in perhaps as little as 1 0 years’ time. 这个转变最少只要10年
[49:00] So that’s a sudden jump. 这是一个突然的变化
[49:02] Now, of course that’s not gonna happen again 当然 现在不会再发生这种事
[49:05] because the glaciers of North America are not there, and… 因为北美的冰被已不在 可…
[49:08] Is there any other big chunk of ice anywhere near there? 那附近有没有其他巨大的冰被呢?
[49:13] Oh, yeah. 哦 没错
[49:15] We’ll come back to that one. 我们以后再谈这个
[49:38] It’s extremely frustrating to me 去尽量清楚地跟别人一遍又一遍地沟通
[49:43] to communicate over and over again, as clearly as I can. 这让我感到十分沮丧
[49:52] And we are still, by far, 到目前为止 我们仍然
[49:55] the worst contributor to the problem. 是造成这问题的最大元凶
[50:03] And I look around 我环顾四周
[50:04] and look for really meaningful signs 想找到一些真正有意义的迹象
[50:08] that we’re about to really change. 能表示我们正打算真正地去改变
[50:13] I don’t see it right now. 此刻 我找不到
[50:16] A number of very reputable scientists have said that one factor of air pollution 许多著名科学家说过 空气污染的一个原因
[50:21] is oxides of nitrogen from decaying vegetation. 就是腐败植被产生的氮氧化物
[50:24] This is what causes the haze that gave the big Smoky Mountains their name. 这也正是大烟山上那些雾产生的原因
[50:29] Thank you very much, okay. 非常感谢 好的
[50:32] This guy is so far off in the environmental extreme, 这个家伙走了环境极端
[50:35] we’ll be up to our neck in owls and out of work for every American. 每个美国人都会成为 整天忙着拯救猫头鹰的失业者
[50:40] This guy is crazy. 这家伙疯了
[50:42] Even if humans were causing global warming, and we are not, 即使人类曾造成全球变暖 但是我们现在没有
[50:47] this could be maybe the greatest hoax ever perpetrated 这也许是对美国人开的最大的玩笑
[50:50] on the American people.
[50:52] We’re dealing with something that’s highly emotional. 我们在处理一些高度情绪化的东西
[50:56] If an issue is not 如果一个议题不在人民选举者的嘴边
[50:59] on the tips of their constituents’ tongues,
[51:05] it’s easy for them to ignore it. 人民就很容易会忽视它
[51:13] To say, “Well, we’ll deal with that tomorrow. “ 只要说 “好吧 明天再说”
[51:23] So the same phenomena of changing all these patterns 同样 这些改变所产生的同样现象
[51:26] is also affecting the seasons. 也在影响着季节
[51:29] Here is a study from the Netherlands. 这里有一份荷兰的研究
[51:31] The peak arrival date for migratory birds 25年前 候鸟到达最多的一天是4月25日
[51:34] 25 years ago was April 25th,
[51:38] and their chicks hatched on June the 3rd. 它们的雏鸟于6月3日孵化
[51:41] Just at the time when the caterpillars were coming out. 正是毛虫出来的时候
[51:45] Nature’s plan. 大自然的计划
[51:47] But 20 years of warming later, 但20年的转暖拖延
[51:51] the caterpillars peaked two weeks earlier, 毛虫的出现时间提前了两周
[51:53] and the chicks tried to catch up with it, but they couldn’t. 雏鸟试着赶上它们 却做不到
[51:58] And so, they’re in trouble. 因此 它们碰到麻烦了
[52:00] And there are millions of ecological niches 像这样由于全球变暖而受影响的生态位
[52:03] that are affected by global warming in just this way.
[52:05] 还有成千上万
[52:07] This is the number of days with frost in Southern Switzerland 这是过去100年来
[52:10] 瑞士南部的霜冻期
[52:10] over the last 1 00 years.
[52:13] It has gone down rapidly. But now watch this. 它在急剧下降 现在看这个
[52:15] This is the number of invasive exotic species 这是侵入来填充新生态位的外来物种数量
[52:19] that have rushed in to fill the new ecological niches that are opening up.
[52:25] That’s happening here in the United States, too. 在美国这里 情况也是如此
[52:27] You’ve heard of the pine beetle problem? 听过松树甲虫的问题没有?
[52:30] Those pine beetles used to be killed by the cold winters, 这些甲虫曾被寒冬杀死
[52:34] but there are fewer days of frost, 如今霜冻期减少了
[52:36] and so the pine trees are being devastated. 因此松树遭殃了
[52:39] This is part of 1 4 million acres of spruce trees in Alaska 这是阿拉斯加被甲虫毁坏的 1400万英亩云杉的一部分
[52:44] that have been killed by bark beetles. The exact same phenomenon. 一模一样的现象
[52:48] There are cities that were founded 一些城市因为位于蚊子线之上而被建立
[52:51] because they were just above the mosquito line.
[52:54] Nairobi is one, Harare is another. There are plenty of others. 内罗毕是一个 哈拉雷是另一个 还有很多其它的
[52:58] Now the mosquitoes, with warming, are climbing to higher altitudes. 现在 这些蚊子随着气温升高 飞到了更高的海拔
[53:02] There are a lot of vectors for infectious diseases that are worrisome to us 其它携带着令人不安的传染性疾病的 动物的活动范围也在扩大
[53:06] that are also expanding their range.
[53:09] Not only mosquitoes, but all of these others as well. 不仅仅是蚊子 这些也同样如此
[53:12] And we’ve had 30 so-called new diseases 最近25年又出现了30种新的疾病
[53:14] that have emerged just in the last quarter century.
[53:18] And a lot of them, like SARS, have caused tremendous problems. 而且有许多疾病 比如SARS 造成了巨大的问题
[53:22] The resistant forms of tuberculosis. There are others. 肺结核抗体 等等…
[53:25] And there’s been a re-emergence of some diseases 有些已被控制的疾病又卷土重来
[53:27] that were once under control.
[53:30] The avian flu, of course, quite a serious matter, as you know. 禽流感 当然 也是个很严重的问题
[53:35] West Nile Virus. 西尼罗病毒
[53:37] It came to the eastern shore of Maryland in 1 999. 1999年来到马里兰州东岸
[53:40] Two years later, it was across the Mississippi. 两年后 它穿过了密西西比州
[53:43] And two years after that, it had spread across the continent. 又过两年 它横穿了整个大陆
[53:47] But these are very troubling signs. 这些是很严重的信号
[53:49] Coral reefs all over the world, 全世界的珊瑚礁
[53:52] because of global warming and other factors, 因为全球变暖和其它因素
[53:54] are bleaching and they end up like this. 渐渐褪色 最后变成了这样
[53:57] And all the fish species that depend on the coral reefs 所有依赖珊瑚礁的鱼类
[54:00] are also in jeopardy as a result. 也因此处于危险之中
[54:03] Overall, species loss is now occurring 总的来说 物种灭绝正以
[54:06] at a rate 1,000 times greater than the natural background rate. 自然本底速度的1000倍进行
[54:11] This brings me to the second canary in the coal mine. 这让我想到煤矿里的第二只金丝雀
[54:14] Antarctica. 南极洲
[54:15] The largest mass of ice on the planet by far. 有史以来地球上最大的冰陆
[54:19] A friend of mine said in 1 978, 我的一个朋友在1978年说道
[54:22] “If you see the breakup of ice shelves along the Antarctic peninsula, “如果你看到南极半岛冰架崩裂
[54:25] “watch out 小心
[54:27] “because that should be seen as an alarm bell for global warming.” 因为那可是全球变暖的警钟”
[54:31] And actually, if you look at the peninsula up close, 实际上 如果你仔细看南极半岛
[54:35] every place where you see one of these green blotches here 你所看见的每一个绿色块
[54:39] is an ice shelf larger than the state of Rhode Island 都是一处最近的15到20年崩裂
[54:43] that has broken up just in the last 1 5 to 20 years. 比罗得岛还大的冰架
[54:47] I want to focus on just one of them. 我想只重点说其中的一处
[54:49] It’s called Larsen B. 称之为Larsen B
[54:50] I want you to Iook at these black pools here. 我要你看这些黑色的水池
[54:55] It makes it seem almost as if we’re looking through the ice 好像我们的视线已经透过了冰面
[54:58] to the ocean beneath. But that’s an illusion. 看到了下面的海洋 但那是幻觉
[55:01] This is melting water that forms in pools, 是融化的冰形成了这些水池
[55:05] and if you were flying over it in a helicopter, 如果你从直升机上看它
[55:08] you’d see it’s 700 feet tall. 你会发现它有700英尺高
[55:10] They are so majestic, so massive. 它们是如此宏伟 如此巨大
[55:15] In the distance are the mountains and just before the mountains 远处是山脉 在山脉前面
[55:18] is the shelf of the continent, there. 是大陆架 这里
[55:22] This is floating ice, 这是浮冰
[55:24] and there’s land-based ice on the down slope of those mountains. 在那些山的下坡上有陆基冰被
[55:29] From here to the mountains is about 20 to 25 miles. 从这里到山脉约有20到25英里
[55:34] Now they thought this would be stable for at least 100 years, 他们认为至少在最近100年内 一切都是稳定的
[55:37] even with global warming. 即使全球变暖发生
[55:39] The scientists who study these ice shelves 研究这些冰架的科学家
[55:43] were absolutely astonished 完全震惊了
[55:46] when they were looking at these images. 当他们看到这些图片
[55:48] Starting on January 31, 2002 从2002年1月31日起
[55:50] in a period of 35 days 过了35天
[55:53] this ice shelf completely disappeared. 这个冰架完全消失了
[55:57] They could not figure out how in the world this happened so rapidly. 他们完全想不出这怎么会发生得这么快
[56:03] And they went back to try to figure out where they’d gone wrong. 他们往回检查 想知道哪里出的错
[56:07] And that’s when they focused on those pools of melting water. 这时他们注意到这些 冰块融化而形成的水池
[56:12] But even before they could figure out what had happened there, 在他们研究出发生了什么之前
[56:15] something else started going wrong. 又有不好的事发生了
[56:18] When the floating sea-based ice cracked up, 海基浮冰崩塌后
[56:21] it no longer held back the ice on the land, 陆地上的冰块就没有了支撑
[56:23] and the land-based ice then started falling into the ocean. 陆基冰被开始掉落到海里
[56:27] It was like letting the cork out of a bottle. 就像打开了酒瓶上的软木塞一样
[56:29] And there’s a difference between floating ice and land-based ice. 浮冰和陆基冰被是不同的
[56:33] That’s like the difference between an ice cube floating in a glass of water, 就好像一杯水里面浮着个冰块
[56:37] which when it melts doesn’t raise the level of water in the glass, 它融化后 玻璃杯的水位不会上涨
[56:41] and a cube that’s sitting atop a stack of ice cubes 这堆冰块中最上面的一块
[56:44] which melts and flows over the edge. 融化后 水位漫过边界
[56:47] That’s why the citizens of these Pacific nations 这也是为什么那些太平洋岛国的居民
[56:50] have all had to evacuate to New Zealand. 不得不移居到新西兰
[56:54] But I want to focus on West Antarctica 再来看看南极洲西部
[56:57] because it illustrates two factors about land-based ice and sea-based ice. 因为它揭示了关于陆基冰被 和海基冰被的两个原因
[57:02] It’s a little of both. It’s propped up on tops of islands, 有点两者兼有 它由岛屿顶部撑起
[57:05] but the ocean comes up underneath it. 下面是海洋
[57:09] So as the ocean gets warmer, it has an impact on it. 因此海洋升温会对这里产生很大影响
[57:12] If this were to go, 如果这块不见了
[57:15] sea level worldwide would go up 20 feet. 全世界海平面将上升20英尺
[57:18] They’ve measured disturbing changes on the underside of this ice sheet. 他们测量到这冰原下面发生的 令人担忧的变化
[57:22] It’s considered relatively more stable, however, 然而 人们还是认为它比 另一块几乎同样大小的冰原稳定
[57:26] than another big body of ice that’s roughly the same size.
[57:31] Greenland would also raise sea level almost 20 feet 如果格陵兰融化 它也会让海平面几乎上升20英尺
[57:35] if it went.
[57:37] A friend of mine just brought back some pictures 我的一位朋友带给我些照片
[57:39] of what’s going on on Greenland right now. 关于格陵兰现在情况的照片
[57:42] Dramatic changes. These are the same kinds of pools 戏剧性的变化 就像南极洲形成的这些水池
[57:46] that formed here, on this ice shelf in Antarctica.
[57:51] And the scientists thought 科学家以为
[57:53] that when that water seeped back into the ice, it would just refreeze. 如果这些水渗回冰里 它又会冻成冰
[57:58] But they found out that actually what happens 但他们发现 实际上
[58:01] is that it just keeps on going. It tunnels to the bottom 它继续流动 打洞到最底部
[58:05] and makes the ice like Swiss cheese, 让这些冰变得好像瑞士奶酪一样
[58:07] sort of like termites. 就像白蚁一样
[58:09] This shows what happens to the crevasses, 这里显示的是裂口出的情况
[58:12] and when lakes form, they create what are called moulins. 这些湖泊形成后 它们创造了一些冰川锅穴
[58:17] The water goes down to the bottom 水往下流到底部
[58:19] and it lubricates where the ice meets the bedrock. 在冰和岩床接触的地方起到润滑作用
[58:22] See these people here for scale. 看这些测量的人
[58:25] This is not on the edge of Greenland, this is in the middle of the ice mass. 这不是在格陵兰边缘 这是在冰原中间
[58:29] This is a massive rushing torrent 这是个巨大的融水洪流
[58:32] of fresh melt water
[58:35] tunneling straight down through the Greenland ice 从格陵兰冰块往下
[58:38] to the bedrock below. 沿着通道一直流到岩床
[58:40] Now, to some extent, there has always been seasonal melting 在某种程度上 过去也一直有些季节性的融化
[58:46] and moulins have formed in the past, but not like now. 和空洞的形成 但不像现在
[58:50] In 1 992, they measured this amount of melting in Greenland. 1992年 人们测量到这么多格陵兰冰的融化量
[58:55] Ten years later, this is what happened. 10年后 这就是发生的情况
[58:57] And here is the melting from 2005. 这是2005年融化的情况
[59:01] Tony Blair’s scientific advisor has said that 托尼?布莱尔的科学顾问说过
[59:05] because of what’s happening in Greenland right now, 根据格陵兰现在发生的情况
[59:08] the maps of the world will have to be redrawn. 世界地图将要重新绘制
[59:11] If Greenland broke up and melted, 如果格陵兰崩开融化
[59:14] or if half of Greenland and half of West Antarctica 或如果半个格陵兰和半个西南极洲
[59:18] broke up and melted, 崩开融化
[59:20] this is what would happen to the sea level in Florida. 这就是佛罗里达州海平面的变化
[59:29] This is what would happen to San Francisco Bay. 这是旧金山湾的情况
[59:33] A lot of people live in these areas. 这些地区有许多居民
[59:36] The Netherlands, one of the low countries. 荷兰 世界上海拔最低的国家之一
[59:41] Absolutely devastating. 完全破坏
[59:44] The area around Beijing that’s home to tens of millions of people. 北京周围 上千万居民的家园
[59:50] Even worse, in the area around Shanghai, 更糟糕的是 在上海周围
[59:53] there are 40 million people. 这里有四千万人
[59:57] Worse still, Calcutta, and to the east, Bangladesh, 还有更糟的 加尔各答和东边的孟加拉国
[1:00:02] the area covered includes 60 million people. 这里有六千万人
[1:00:06] Think of the impact of a couple hundred thousand refugees 想想上万难民的冲击吧
[1:00:11] when they’re displaced by an environmental event. 他们由环境事件而无家可归
[1:00:14] And then imagine the impact of a hundred million or more. 再想想上亿难民的冲击吧
[1:00:20] Here’s Manhattan. 这是曼哈顿
[1:00:22] This is the World Trade Center memorial site. 这是世贸中心纪念地
[1:00:26] And after the horrible events of 9/1 1, 在9/11那个恐怖日子后
[1:00:32] we said, “Never again.” 我们说 “事情决不会重演”
[1:00:33] we said, “Never again.”
[1:00:34] But this is what would happen to Manhattan. 但这就是曼哈顿会发生的情况
[1:00:42] They can measure this precisely, 人们可以准确地测量出
[1:00:45] just as the scientists could predict precisely 就像科学家可以准确地预测一样
[1:00:48] how much water would breach the levees in New Orleans. 有多少海水会漫过新奥尔良的大堤
[1:00:52] The area where the World Trade Center Memorial is to be located 世贸中心纪念地被定位在
[1:00:57] would be underwater. 海面以下
[1:01:00] Is it possible that we should prepare against other threats besides terrorists? 我们是不是该为其它威胁作些准备? 而不仅仅是恐怖分子?
[1:01:06] Maybe we should be concerned about other problems as well. 也许我们应该关心一下其它问题了
[1:01:17] 1.3 billion people. 13亿人
[1:01:21] An economy that’s surging. 蓬勃发展的经济
[1:01:25] More and more energy needs. 需要更多的能源
[1:01:28] Massive coal reserves. 大量的煤储量
[1:01:32] The coal belt in Northern China, 中国北部的煤带
[1:01:36] -Inner Mongolia. -Right. – 内蒙古 – 没错
[1:01:38] Then there’s Shaanxi province. 这些在山西省
[1:01:41] -And also biggest coal mine here. -Up here. – 这里是最大的煤矿 – 在这里
[1:01:45] -Yeah. -Now, is that an open pit mine? – 是的 – 是露天的吗?
[1:01:47] -Yes. -Yes. – 是的 – 是的
[1:01:49] Every time I’ve visited China, 每次我访问中国
[1:01:50] (露天煤矿 不用挖很深)
[1:01:52] I’ve learned from their scientists. They’re right on the cutting edge. 我从中国科学家那里得知 他们有最新的科学技术
[1:01:56] Give me some sense of the numbers of 给我一些关于
[1:01:59] new coal fire generating plants. 新烧煤火电站数量的理解
[1:02:02] Well, I have to say that the number is enormous 我不得不说数量是巨大的
[1:02:05] because it’s so profitable. 因为它十分有利可图
[1:02:07] This issue is really the same for China as it is for the US. 这个议题对中国和美国是一样的
[1:02:13] We are both using old technologies that are dirty and polluting. 我们都在使用肮脏且 污染严重的古老技术
[1:02:17] …more flooding and more drought …出现了更多的洪灾和旱灾
[1:02:19] and stronger storms is going up, 出现了更强的风暴
[1:02:22] and global warming is implicated in the pattern. 全球变暖在此图中被牵连着
[1:02:24] And if you were to give some suggestions to everybody here 如果你要给这里的人们一些建议
[1:02:28] about, like, what we can do for the situation now. 关于 比如 我们该做些什么
[1:02:33] Separating the truth from the fiction 区分事实与假象
[1:02:37] and the accurate connections from the misunderstandings 以及找出误会中的正确联系
[1:02:41] is part of what you learn here. 是你们学的一部分内容
[1:02:45] But when the warnings are accurate and based on sound science, 但当根据合理的科学得出 的这些警告是正确的
[1:02:50] then we as human beings, whatever country we live in, 那么我们作为人类 无论生活在哪个国家
[1:02:54] have to find a way to make sure 都要努力确保
[1:02:56] that the warnings are heard and responded to. 人们知道这些警告并做出反应
[1:03:07] We both have a hard time shaking loose the familiar patterns 我们都很难放弃自己过去所依赖的…
[1:03:12] that we’ve relied on in the past. 熟悉模式
[1:03:15] We both face completely unacceptable consequences. 我们都在面对难以接受的后果
[1:03:26] 我们在见证我们的文明和地球之间的冲突
[1:03:31] And there are three factors that are causing this collision, 造成这个冲突的原因有三
[1:03:34] and the first is population. 第一个便是人口问题
[1:03:36] When my generation, the baby boom generation, was born after World War II, 我出生时 二战后的婴儿潮
[1:03:40] the population had just crossed the two billion mark. 人口刚刚超过20亿
[1:03:45] Now, I’m in my 50s, 现在 我已年过50
[1:03:47] and it’s already gone to almost six and a half billion. 世界人口已几乎到65亿
[1:03:52] And if I reach the demographic expectation for the baby boomers, 如果我能活到人口统计学的估计的那年
[1:03:57] it’ll go over nine billion. 将来会超过90亿人
[1:04:00] So if it takes 10,000 generations to reach two billion 如果要过10000代来到达20亿
[1:04:04] and then in one human lifetime, ours, 现在只要一段人生的时间 我们的
[1:04:08] it goes from two billion to nine billion, 人口从20亿激增到90亿
[1:04:11] something profoundly different’s going on right now. 有些深刻的改变正在进行
[1:04:14] We’re putting more pressure on the Earth. 我们在给地球施加更大压力
[1:04:17] Most of it’s in the poorer nations of the world. 更多是由贫穷的国家来造成的
[1:04:20] This puts pressure on food demand. 这给食物需求
[1:04:23] It puts pressure on water demand. 水的需求
[1:04:25] It puts pressure on vulnerable natural resources, 以及脆弱的自然资源带来巨大的压力
[1:04:29] and this pressure’s one of the reasons 这种压力也是
[1:04:30] why we have seen all the devastation of the forest, 为什么我们不仅在热带 而且在每个地方
[1:04:33] not only tropical, but elsewhere. 都能看到对森林毁坏的一个原因
[1:04:36] It is a political issue. 这是个政策性的问题
[1:04:38] This is the border between Haiti and the Dominican Republic. 这里是海地和多米尼加共和国的边界
[1:04:42] One set of policies here, another set of policies here. 这边实行一种政策 而在这边实行另一种政策
[1:04:47] Much of it comes not only because of cutting, but also burning. 导致这种局面的原因 不仅是由于砍伐 也是因为焚烧
[1:04:51] Almost 30% of all the CO2 that goes up each year into the atmosphere 每年释放到大气中的二氧化碳
[1:04:55] comes from forest burning. 大约有30%是由森林的燃烧产生的
[1:04:58] This is a time-lapse picture of the Earth at night over a six-month period 这是六个月内夜晚地球的图像
[1:05:02] showing the lights of the cities in white 白色表示城市的灯光
[1:05:04] and the burning forests and brush fires in red. 红色表示燃烧的森林和灌木丛
[1:05:07] The yellow areas are the gas flares, like these in Siberia. 黄色区域表示天然气的火光 例如西伯利亚这里
[1:05:11] And that brings me to the second factor 这使我想到了
[1:05:12] that has transformed our relationship to the Earth. 改变我们和地球关系的第二个因素
[1:05:15] The scientific and technological revolution is a great blessing 科学和技术的革命使我们受益匪浅
[1:05:20] in that it has given us tremendous benefits 它在医学和通信等方面
[1:05:23] in areas like medicine and communications. 给我们带来了巨大的利益
[1:05:26] But this new power that we have also brings a responsibility 但是我们拥有的这种新力量
[1:05:28] 也使我们肩负起它所产生的后果的责任
[1:05:29] to think about its consequences.
[1:05:32] Here’s a formula to think about. 这是一个公式 请大家思考一下
[1:05:33] Old habits plus old technology have predictable consequences. 老习惯加上老技术得到的是可预见的后果
[1:05:38] Old habits that are hard to change plus new technology 难已改变的老习惯加上新技术
[1:05:42] can have dramatically altered consequences. 得到的却是戏剧性转变的后果
[1:05:45] Warfare with spears and bows and arrows 使用长矛 弓箭 步枪 机枪进行的战争
[1:05:48] and rifles and machine guns, that’s one thing.
[1:05:51] 是一回事
[1:05:53] But then a new technology came. 但是之后产生了新的技术
[1:06:03] We have to think differently about war 我们就得重新考虑战争了
[1:06:06] because the new technologies so completely transformed 因为新的技术完全改变了这些老习惯后果
[1:06:10] the consequences of that old habit
[1:06:13] that we can’t just mindlessly continue the patterns of the past.
[1:06:13] 我们不能仅仅延续过前的模式
[1:06:19] In the same way, we have always exploited the Earth for sustenance. 同样 我们一直在为了食物在开垦着地球
[1:06:24] For most of our existence, we used relatively simple tools. 我们人类存在的大部分时间
[1:06:28] The plow, the tractor. 都使用犁 拖拉机这样相对简单的工具
[1:06:31] But even tools like shovels are different now. 但是现在即使像铁铲这样的工具 也不再一样了
[1:06:34] Shovel used to be this. 铁铲曾经是这样的
[1:06:36] Shovels have gotten bigger. 铁铲变大了
[1:06:38] And every year, they get more powerful. 每年 它们都变得更强大
[1:06:41] So our ability to have an effect, in this case on the surface of the Earth, 这样 我们在地球表面所造成的后果的能力
[1:06:46] is utterly transformed. 与以往完全不同了
[1:06:48] You can say the same thing about irrigation, which is a great thing. 你也可以同样考虑灌溉这样的大事
[1:06:53] But when we divert rivers without considering the consequences, 但是如果我们不考虑后果就改变河水流向
[1:06:57] then sometimes rivers no longer reach the sea. 那么河流可能就不能再流入大海了
[1:07:02] There were two rivers in Central Asia 在中亚地区
[1:07:03] that were used by the former Soviet Union 曾经有两条被前苏联不明智地
[1:07:06] for irrigating cotton fields unwisely. 用来灌溉棉田的河流
[1:07:08] The Aral Sea was fed by them. 咸海的水由这两条河注入
[1:07:11] It used to be the fourth largest inland sea in the world. 它曾经是全球第四大的内陆海
[1:07:14] When I went there, I saw this strange sight 但是当我到那里时 看到的确是一副
[1:07:17] of an enormous fishing fleet resting in the sand. 庞大的渔船队被闲置在沙滩上的 不可思议的景象
[1:07:22] This is the canal that the fishing industry desperately tried to build 这是渔业建造并最终失望的
[1:07:27] to get to the receding shoreline. 到达不断远去的海岸线的水道
[1:07:29] Making mistakes in our dealings with nature can have 如今 在我们对待自然时犯下错误
[1:07:32] bigger consequences now 将产生更大的后果
[1:07:34] because our technologies are often bigger than the human scale. 因为我们的科技水平 常常超过我们所能负担的程度
[1:07:38] When you put them all together, they’ve made us a force of nature. 当你把这些错误都放在一起时 它们就会向我们展示出大自然的力量
[1:07:42] And this is also a political issue. 这也是一个政策性的问题
[1:07:45] This is a computer map of the world 这是一张分解的全球数字地图
[1:07:47] that distorts to show the relative contributions to global warming. 显示的是各地区在全球变暖中 所负的相对责任
[1:07:52] In our country, we are responsible for more than all of South America, 在我们国家 我们所负的责任
[1:07:56] all of Africa, all of the Middle East, 比把南美 非洲 中东 亚洲都加在一起
[1:07:59] all of Asia, all combined. 所负的责任还要大
[1:08:02] The per capita average in Africa, India, China, Japan, EU, Russia. 这是非洲 印度 中国 日本 欧洲以及俄罗斯的 人均二氧化碳排放量
[1:08:07] There’s where we are. Way, way above everyone else. 这是我们国家的 远远超过其它任何一个国家
[1:08:10] If you take population into account, it’s a little bit different. 如果按总人口量来计算的话 则会有所不同
[1:08:14] China’s playing a bigger role, so is Europe. 中国将负更大的责任 欧洲也一样
[1:08:18] But we are still by all odds the largest contributor. 但我们美国仍要负最大的责任
[1:08:22] And so it is up to us to look at how we think about it, 这取决于我们如何考虑这个问题
[1:08:25] because our way of thinking is the third and final factor 因为我们考虑问题的方法
[1:08:28] that transforms our relationship to the Earth. 就是改变我们和地球的关系的 第三和最后一个因素
[1:08:31] If a frog jumps into a pot of boiling water, 如果一只青蛙跳进一杯开水里
[1:08:35] it jumps right out again because it senses the danger. 它马上又跳了出来 因为它感到了危险
[1:08:39] But the very same frog, 但是同样一只青蛙
[1:08:41] if it jumps into a pot of lukewarm water 如果它跳进一杯温水里
[1:08:45] that is slowly brought to a boil, 把温水慢慢加热煮沸
[1:08:47] will just sit there and it won’t move. 青蛙就会坐在那里一动不动
[1:08:50] It’ll just sit there, even as the temperature continues to go up and up. 哪怕温度不断上升 它仍然会坐在那里
[1:08:55] It’ll stay there, until… Until it’s rescued. 它会待在那里 直到… 直到它被解救出来
[1:09:00] It’s important to rescue the frog. 解救这只青蛙是十分重要的
[1:09:07] But the point is this. 但关键是
[1:09:09] Our collective nervous system is like that frog’s nervous system. 我们的群体神经系统 与青蛙的神经系统类似
[1:09:12] It takes a sudden jolt sometimes before we become aware of a danger. 有时候只有突然一晃 我们才能意识到危险
[1:09:17] If it seems gradual, even if it really is happening quickly, 如果危险是缓慢到来的 即使实际上发生很快
[1:09:20] we’re capable of just sitting there and not responding. 我们可能只是坐在那里 没有感觉
[1:09:25] And not reacting. 也没有反应
[1:09:32] I don’t remember a time when I was a kid 我不记得当我还是个孩子的时候
[1:09:36] when summertime didn’t mean working with tobacco. 那时候夏季并不意味着 要在烟草地里工作
[1:09:40] It was just… I used to love it. It was during that period 只是…我曾经非常喜欢那种生活
[1:09:43] when working with the guys on the farm 跟朋友们在农场一起工作的那段时光
[1:09:47] seemed like fun to me. 对我来说充满了乐趣
[1:09:51] Starting in 1 964, with the Surgeon General’s report, 从1964年开始 由于卫生署长的报告
[1:09:57] the evidence was laid out on the connection 吸烟与肺癌存在联系的证据
[1:09:59] between smoking cigarettes and lung cancer. 被摆上台面
[1:10:07] We kept growing tobacco. 我们仍然在种植烟草
[1:10:13] Nancy was almost 10 years older than me, 南希几乎比我大了十岁
[1:10:17] and there were only the two of us. 那时候只有我们两个人
[1:10:22] She was my protector 她是我的保护神
[1:10:24] and my friend at the same time. 同时也是我的朋友
[1:10:30] She started smoking when she was a teenager 她十几岁就开始吸烟
[1:10:34] and never stopped. 从来没有停过
[1:10:40] She died of lung cancer. 她死于肺癌
[1:10:46] That’s one of the ways you don’t want to die. 你不会想要那样死的
[1:10:51] The idea that we had been 我们采用
[1:10:56] part of that economic pattern 那种经济模式的作法
[1:10:59] that produced the cigarettes, 这种作法制造了香烟
[1:11:02] that produced the cancer, 也制造了癌症
[1:11:05] it was so… 这种做法…
[1:11:08] It was so painful on so many levels. 这种做法带来了如此多的痛苦
[1:11:13] My father, he had grown tobacco all his life. He stopped. 我的父亲 他的一生都在种植烟草 他停手了
[1:11:20] Whatever explanation 无论什么解释
[1:11:24] had seemed to make sense in the past, just didn’t cut it anymore. 即使在过去它看起来多么有意义 就是不再种了
[1:11:30] He stopped it. 他停手了
[1:11:39] It’s just human nature to take time to connect the dots. I know that. 我知道人类明白事情要花时间
[1:11:45] But I also know that there can be a day of reckoning 但是我也知道 有一天你回忆往事
[1:11:50] when you wish you had connected the dots more quickly. 就会后悔自己怎么没有早点明白
[1:12:03] There are three misconceptions in particular that bedevil our thinking. 有三个误解特别困扰着我们的思维
[1:12:07] First, isn’t there a disagreement among scientists 第一个 科学家们之间
[1:12:09] about whether the problem is real or not? 关于这个问题是真还是假有争议吗?
[1:12:11] Actually, not really. 事实上 没有
[1:12:14] There was a massive study of every scientific article 研究人员对过去十年焦点回顾的期刊中
[1:12:17] in a peer-reviewed journal written on global warming for the last 1 0 years. 每一篇关于全球变暖的 科学文章都做了研究
[1:12:23] And they took a big sample of 1 0%, 928 articles. 他们取了个10%的大样本 928篇文章
[1:12:27] And you know the number of those that disagreed with the scientific consensus 你知道其中不同意 是我们导致着全球变暖
[1:12:32] that we’re causing global warming and that it’s a serious problem? 不认为这是个严重问题的文章有多少吗?
[1:12:35] Out of the 928, zero. 在928篇文章中 零
[1:12:39] The misconception that there’s disagreement about the science 有相对一小部分人
[1:12:42] has been deliberately created by a relatively small group of people. 他们蓄意制造了 这种科学观点存在争议的误解
[1:12:47] One of their internal memos leaked. 他们的一个内部备忘录中泄露了
[1:12:50] And here’s what it said, according to the press. 根据一份杂志的报道 这是那篇备忘录的内容
[1:12:53] Their objective is to reposition global warming 他们的目的是
[1:12:57] as theory rather than fact. 把全球变暖变成一种理论而不是当成事实
[1:13:00] 这以前就发生过
[1:13:00] This has happened before. (更多医生选择抽骆驼牌烟)
[1:13:04] After the Surgeon General’s report. 在卫生署长的报告之后
[1:13:08] One of their memos leaked 40 years ago. Here’s what they said. 40年前 他们的一份备忘录中泄露了 这是其内容
[1:13:11] “Doubt is our product, “怀疑就是我们的产品”
[1:13:13] “since it is the best means of creating a controversy in the public’s mind.” “因为这是在公众舆论中制造争论的最好办法”
[1:13:19] But have they succeeded? 但是他们成功了吗?
[1:13:20] You’ll remember that there were 928 peer-reviewed articles. 你该记得共有928篇焦点回顾中的文章
[1:13:25] Zero percent disagreed with the consensus. 0%对这观点进行否定
[1:13:28] There was another study of all the articles in the popular press. 还有一个对流行杂志中 所有文章进行的研究
[1:13:31] Over the last 1 4 years, they looked at a sample of 636. 在过去14年中 他们对其中的636篇进行了采样研究
[1:13:35] More than half of them said, 它们中超过半数是这样说的
[1:13:37] “Well, we’re not sure. It could be a problem, may not be a problem.” “是这样 我们也不确定 它可能是个问题 也可能不是问题”
[1:13:42] So no wonder people are confused. 因此人们糊涂也不足为奇
[1:13:54] Hey. 嘿
[1:13:56] What did you find out? 你发现什么了?
[1:14:00] Working for who? 为谁工作?
[1:14:04] Chief of Staff? 参谋长?
[1:14:06] I’m gonna… 我要…
[1:14:07] That’s the White House environment office. 是白宫的环境办公室
[1:14:10] American Petroleum Institute. It’s fair to say that’s the oil and gas lobby. 美国石油组织 公平点说是石油和天然气工业的游说者
[1:14:16] Is that fair? 这样说公平吗?
[1:14:18] Totally fair. 非常公平
[1:14:20] Do a little bit more and see who his clients were. 多做一些调查看看他的客户是谁
[1:14:25] So he was defending the Exxon Valdez thing. 那么他是在为爱克森公司 瓦拉兹油轮事件进行辩护
[1:14:30] Uh, very. Thank you. 非常感谢你
[1:14:34] Scientists have an independent obligation 当科学家发现真相的时候
[1:14:39] to respect and present the truth as they see it. 他们有尊重事实并反它呈献出来的 不受拘束的责任
[1:14:45] Why do you directly contradict yourself 为什么在你提供的这个科学问题的证据面前
[1:14:50] in the testimony you’re giving about this scientific question? 你直接否定了你自己?
[1:14:54] The last paragraph in that section was not a paragraph which I wrote. 那部分中的最后一段不是我写的
[1:14:58] That was added to my testimony. 那是被后来加到我的证据里面的
[1:15:00] If they force you to change a scientific conclusion, 如果他们强迫你改变你的科学结论
[1:15:04] it’s a form of science fraud by them. 那它就是他们设置的科学欺诈
[1:15:07] You know, in the Soviet Union, ordering scientists 你知道 在苏联
[1:15:09] 命令科学家更改他们的研究 以符合他们的意识形态…
[1:15:10] to change their studies to conform with the ideology…
[1:15:19] I’ve seen scientists 我就曾见过一些科学家
[1:15:21] who were persecuted, 他们被迫害
[1:15:25] ridiculed, 他们被嘲笑
[1:15:28] deprived of jobs, income, 他们被剥夺了工作和收入
[1:15:34] simply because the facts they discovered 仅仅是因为他们发现的事实
[1:15:38] led them to an inconvenient truth 引出了不方便的真相
[1:15:45] that they insisted on telling. 但是他们仍然坚持要说出来
[1:15:51] He worked for the American Petroleum Institute. 他为美国石油组织工作
[1:15:55] And in January of 2001, 2001年1月
[1:15:57] he was put by the president in charge of environmental policy. 他被总统聘请负责环境政策
[1:16:02] He received a memo from the EPA 他从环境保护局收到一份
[1:16:05] that warned about global warming 有关警告全球变暖的备忘录
[1:16:09] and he edited. He has no scientific training whatsoever. 他编辑了那份备忘录 他从来没接受过任何科学培训
[1:16:13] But he took it upon himself to overrule the scientist. 但是他自作主张否决了科学家
[1:16:16] I said, “I want to see what this guy’s handwriting looks like.” 我说”我想看看这家伙的笔迹是什么样的”
[1:16:19] This is the memo from the EPA. These are his actual pen strokes. 这是从环境保护局的备忘录 这是他的真实笔迹
[1:16:23] He says, “No, you can’t say this. This is just speculation.” 他说 “不 你不能这么说 这只是一种推测”
[1:16:27] This was embarrassing to the White House, 这对白宫来说是件很尴尬的事
[1:16:30] so this fellow resigned a few days later. 因此这个人几天后就辞职了
[1:16:34] And the day after he resigned, he went to work for Exxon Mobil. 在他辞职后的那一天 他就去为埃克森-美孚工作了
[1:16:39] You know, more than 1 00 years ago, Upton Sinclair wrote this. 100多年前 厄普顿.辛克莱这样写道
[1:16:42] That it’s difficult to get a man to understand something 如果一个人的工作是建立在 对事情的不了解之上
[1:16:46] if his salary depends upon his not understanding it. 那么 要他了解这件事就非常困难了
[1:16:57] The second misconception. 第二个误解
[1:16:59] Do we have to choose between the economy and the environment? 我们需要在经济和环境之间做出选择吗?
[1:17:01] This is a big one. 这是一个很大的误解
[1:17:03] Lot of people say we do. 很多人说我们应该做出选择
[1:17:05] I was trying to convince the previous administration, 我曾试图说服前政府
[1:17:09] the first Bush administration, to go to the Earth Summit. 也就是第一届布什政府去参加地球峰会
[1:17:12] And they organized a big White House conference 他们组织了一次大型白宫会议
[1:17:14] to say, “Oh, we’re on top of this.” 为了说 “哦 这事在我们掌控之中”
[1:17:16] And one of these view graphs caught my attention. 这里面的一幅图引起了我的注意
[1:17:18] And I want to talk to you about it for a minute. 我想和你们谈谈
[1:17:20] Now here is the choice that we have to make 现在根据这幅图
[1:17:23] according to this group. 我们必须做个选择
[1:17:25] We have here a scales that balances two different things. 我们这里有一架天平来平衡两种不同的东西
[1:17:30] On one side, we have gold bars. 在天平的一边 我们放的是金砖
[1:17:38] Don’t they look good? 它们看起来很不错吧?
[1:17:40] I’d just like to have some of those gold bars. 我非常想拥有一些金砖
[1:17:46] On the other side of the scales, the entire planet. 在天平的另一边 是整个地球
[1:18:05] I think this is a false choice for two reasons. 我想有两个原因可以说明 这不是个选择问题
[1:18:08] Number one, if we don’t have a planet… 第一 如果我们没有地球…
[1:18:16] The other reason is that if we do the right thing, 另一个原因是如果我们做对了事情
[1:18:20] then we’re gonna create a lot of wealth 那么我们就会创造很多的财富
[1:18:22] -and we’re gonna create a lot of jobs. -Yes. -我们就会创造很多的就业机会 -确实
[1:18:24] Because doing the right thing moves us forward. 因为做对了事情可以让我们不断发展
[1:18:32] I’ve probably given this slide show 1,000 times. 这部幻灯片我可能已经讲解1000次了
[1:18:43] I would say, at least 1,000 times. 可以说 至少有1000次了
[1:18:46] Nashville to Knoxville to Aspen and Sundance. 从纳什维尔到诺克斯维尔 再到阿斯潘和圣丹斯
[1:18:50] Los Angeles and San Francisco. Portland, Minneapolis. 洛杉矶 旧金山 波特兰 明尼阿波利斯
[1:18:55] Boston, New Haven, London, Brussels, Stockholm, Helsinki, 波士顿 纽黑文 伦敦 布鲁塞尔 斯德哥尔摩 赫尔辛基
[1:19:00] Vienna, Munich, Italy and Spain 维也纳 慕尼黑 意大利 西班牙
[1:19:03] and China, South Korea, Japan. 还有中国 韩国 日本等等
[1:19:09] Thank you. 谢谢
[1:19:11] I guess the thing I’ve spent more time on than anything else in this slide show 除了讲解幻灯片 花费我最多时间的
[1:19:15] is trying to identify 就是识别
[1:19:17] all those things in people’s minds 人们思想中
[1:19:21] that serve as obstacles to them understanding this. 妨碍他们明白这个道理的那些东西
[1:19:28] And whenever I feel like I’ve identified an obstacle, 一旦我感到我发现了一个障碍
[1:19:32] I try to take it apart, roll it away. Move it. 我就要解剖它 让它滚蛋 移开它
[1:19:37] Demolish it, blow it up. 毁了它 炸了它
[1:19:47] I set myself a goal. 我给自己制定了一个目标
[1:19:52] Communicate this real clearly. 明确的告知人们这个真相
[1:19:57] The only way I know to do it 我知道的达到这个目标的唯一方法
[1:20:00] is city by city, 就是一个城市接着一个城市
[1:20:08] person by person, 一个人接着一个人
[1:20:14] family by family. 一个家庭接着一个家庭
[1:20:20] -Bye-bye. Thank you again. -Bye. -再见 再次感谢你 -再见
[1:20:22] And I have faith that pretty soon 我坚信很快
[1:20:25] enough minds are changed 足够多的人就会转变想法
[1:20:29] that we cross a threshold. 我们跨过一个门槛
[1:20:34] Let me give you an example 我来给你们举个例子
[1:20:35] of the wrong way to balance the economy and the environment. 一个关于采用错误的方式 平衡经济与环境的例子
[1:20:38] One part of this issue involves automobiles.
[1:20:39] 这件事情的一部分是关于汽车的
[1:20:39] (全世界燃料节约措施…
[1:20:41] Japan has mileage standards up here.
[1:20:41] 日本的里程标准是这么高
[1:20:43] …和温室效应气体排放标准比较)
[1:20:44] Europe plans to pass Japan. 欧洲计划超过日本
[1:20:46] Our allies in Australia and Canada are leaving us behind. 我们的盟友澳大利亚和加拿大 把我们抛在了后面
[1:20:51] Here is where we are. 这是我们的标准
[1:20:55] Now there’s a reason for it. 有一种关于出现这种局面的理由
[1:20:57] They say that we can’t protect the environment too much 他们说我们太注意保护环境
[1:21:01] without threatening the economy and threatening the automakers. 而影响了经济 影响了汽车制造业
[1:21:04] Because automakers in China might come in and just steal all our markets. 因为中国的汽车厂家 可能会来夺走我们的市场
[1:21:09] Well, here is where China’s auto mileage standards are now. 这是中国现在的里程标准
[1:21:15] Way above ours. 远远在我们之上
[1:21:16] We can’t sell our cars in China today 我们现在不能在中国卖汽车
[1:21:19] because we don’t meet the Chinese environmental standards. 因为我们不符合中国的环境标准
[1:21:24] California has taken an initiative 加州采取主动
[1:21:27] to have higher-mileage cars sold in California. 提高在加州销售汽车的里程标准
[1:21:31] Now the auto companies have sued California 现在汽车公司已经控告加州
[1:21:35] to prevent this law from taking effect 希望能阻止这项法律生效
[1:21:37] because, as they point out, 1 1 years from now 因为 正如他们指出的 11年后…
[1:21:41] this would mean that California would have to have cars for sale 这也许意味着11年后
[1:21:46] that are as efficient 1 1 years from now 加州必须得销售
[1:21:49] as China’s are today. 和中国现在一样效率的汽车
[1:21:51] Clearly too onerous a provision to comply with. 很明显这是个太过分的防备
[1:21:55] And is this helping our companies succeed? 这会帮助我们的公司成功吗?
[1:21:57] Well, actually, if you look at who’s doing well in the world, 实际上 如果你看看世界上谁做得较好
[1:22:00] (2003-2004公司市值)
[1:22:00] it’s the companies that are building more-efficient cars.
[1:22:01] 是那些生产更高效率汽车的公司
[1:22:03] (丰田 本田 福特 通用)
[1:22:04] And our companies are in deep trouble. 我们的公司麻烦大了
[1:22:07] Final misconception. 最后一个误解
[1:22:08] If we accept that this problem is real, 如果假设这个问题是真的
[1:22:11] maybe it’s just too big to do anything about. 那么可能这个问题太大了 以至于我们做任何事情都无济于事
[1:22:14] And, you know, there are a lot of people who go straight from denial 而且 有很多人
[1:22:16] 直接从否认走向了绝望
[1:22:18] to despair
[1:22:20] without pausing on the intermediate step 甚至在转变的中间
[1:22:23] of actually doing something about the problem. 没有停下来做任何解决这个问题的事情
[1:22:27] And that’s what I’d like to finish with. The fact that we already know 这就是我最后所要讲的
[1:22:28] (人类已经知道科学 技术和工业上…
[1:22:28] 我们已知的事实 每件所需知道的事情
[1:22:30] everything we need to know to effectively address this problem. …处理碳和气候的问题的诀窍…)
[1:22:33] 来有效地处理这个问题
[1:22:33] (2004年8月13日 《科学》)
[1:22:36] We’ve got to do a lot of things, not just one. 我们要做很多事情 而不仅仅是一件
[1:22:38] If we use more efficient 如果我们采用效率更高的电器
[1:22:41] electricity appliances,
[1:22:44] we can save this much off of the global warming pollution 我们就可以节约下导致全球变暖热这一部分
[1:22:47] that would otherwise be put into the atmosphere. 否则这部分就会被排放到大气中
[1:22:51] If we use other end-use efficiency, this much. 如果我们采用更多效率为本的发式 这么多
[1:22:54] If we have higher mileage cars, this much. 如果我们有里程标准更高的汽车 这么多
[1:22:56] And all these begin to add up. Other transport efficiency, 这样就会增加 其它运输的效率
[1:23:00] renewable technology, 可持续技术
[1:23:02] carbon capture and sequestration. 碳固存技术
[1:23:04] A big solution that you’re gonna be hearing a lot more about. 一种你以后将了解更清楚的有效解决方法
[1:23:07] They all add up, 这些节约下来的都加在一起
[1:23:09] and pretty soon we are below our 1 970 emissions. 那么很快我们就会低于1970年的排放量
[1:23:15] We have everything we need, 我们有我们需要的所有东西
[1:23:17] save perhaps political will. 节约可能只是一种政治上的意向
[1:23:21] But you know what? In America, political will is a renewable resource. 但是你知道吗? 在美国 政治意向是一种可更新资源
[1:23:30] We have the ability to do this. 我们有能力解决这个问题
[1:23:32] Each one of us is a cause of global warming, 我们每一个人都是 导致全球变暖的一个因素
[1:23:35] but each of us can make choices to change that. 但是我们每一个人 都可以选择改变这种状况
[1:23:38] With the things we buy, the electricity we use, the cars we drive, 通过我们购买的东西 像我们使用的电器 我们驾驶的汽车等等
[1:23:42] we can make choices to bring our individual carbon emissions to zero. 我们可以做出选择 将个人碳排放量降到零
[1:23:46] The solutions are in our hands. 问题的解决办法就在我们手里
[1:23:49] We just have to have the determination to make them happen. 我们只需要下定决心去做
[1:23:53] Are we gonna be left behind as the rest of the world moves forward? 我们就这样让世界前进 而把我们甩在后面吗?
[1:23:57] All of these nations have ratified Kyoto. 这些国家都签署了京都议定书
[1:24:00] There are only two advanced nations in the world that have not ratified Kyoto, 世界上只有两个发达国家 没有签署京都议定书
[1:24:05] and we are one of them. The other is Australia. 我们是其中一个 另一个是澳大利亚
[1:24:10] Luckily, several states are taking the initiative. 幸运的是 有些州 已经主动行动起来了
[1:24:13] The nine northeastern states have banded together 东北部的9个州已经联合起来
[1:24:16] on reducing CO2. 一同减少二氧化碳
[1:24:19] California and Oregon are taking the initiative. 加州和俄勒冈主动行动
[1:24:22] Pennsylvania’s exercising leadership on solar power and wind power. 宾夕法尼亚州在太阳能 和风力能源方面领先
[1:24:27] And US cities are stepping up to the plate. 美国各个城市也在行动
[1:24:31] One after the other, we have seen 一个接一个 我们看到
[1:24:35] all of these cities pledge to take on global warming. 这些城市承诺要解决全球变暖
[1:24:42] So what about the rest of us? 那么剩下的人呢?
[1:24:45] Ultimately this question comes down to this. 最终这个问题变成了
[1:24:50] Are we, as Americans, 我们 作为美国人
[1:24:54] capable of doing great things 能不能完成伟大的工作
[1:24:57] even though they are difficult? 即使困难重重?
[1:25:00] Are we capable 我们能不能
[1:25:02] of rising above ourselves and above history? 提高我们自己并超越历史?
[1:25:05] Well, the record indicates that we do have that capacity. 这个记录显示我们有这个能力
[1:25:10] We formed a nation, we fought a revolution 我们建立了一个国家 我们进行了一场革命
[1:25:13] and brought something new to this Earth, 给地球带来了一些新的东西
[1:25:16] a free nation guaranteeing individual liberty. 一个保证个人自由的国家
[1:25:20] America made a moral decision. Its slavery was wrong, 美国做了个有道德的决定 奴隶制度是错误的
[1:25:25] and that we could not be half free and half slave. 我们不能是一半自由 一半奴隶
[1:25:30] We, as Americans, decided 我们 作为美国人 决定
[1:25:31] that of course women should have the right to vote. 女性也应当享有投票权
[1:25:34] We defeated totalitarianism and won a war 我们战胜极权主义
[1:25:36] in the Pacific and the Atlantic simultaneously. 在太平洋和大西洋同时取得了战争的胜利
[1:25:41] We desegregated our schools. 我们在学校废除了种族隔离
[1:25:44] And we cured fearsome diseases like polio. 我们治愈了诸如 骨髓灰质炎之类的可怕疾病
[1:25:47] We landed on the moon. 我们登上了月球
[1:25:49] The very example of what’s possible when we are at our best. 那也是我们在最佳状态的最佳印证
[1:25:53] We worked together in a completely bipartisan way 我们两党一同努力
[1:25:56] to bring down communism. 打倒了共产主义
[1:25:58] We have even solved a global environmental crisis before, 我们以前甚至解决过环境危机
[1:26:02] the hole in the stratospheric ozone layer. 臭氧空洞问题
[1:26:05] This was said to be an impossible problem to solve 这曾经被认为是不可能解决的问题
[1:26:07] because it’s a global environmental challenge 因为它是个全球环境挑战
[1:26:10] requiring cooperation from every nation in the world. 解决它需要全世界每个国家的合作
[1:26:14] But we took it on. 但我们做到了
[1:26:16] And the United States took the lead in phasing out the chemicals 美国带头逐渐淘汰了
[1:26:20] that caused that problem. 可能导致这个问题的化学品
[1:26:22] So now we have to use our political processes in our democracy, 我们现在必须在民主上使用政治程序
[1:26:27] and then decide to act together to solve those problems. 来决定一起解决这些问题
[1:26:30] But we have to have a different perspective on this one. 但我们对此得持一种不同的看法
[1:26:34] It’s different from any problem we have ever faced before. 这和我们以前遇到的问题都不一样
[1:26:39] You remember that home movie of the Earth spinning in space? 还记得地球在太空中旋转的那段电影吗?
[1:26:45] One of those spacecraft continuing on out into the universe, 其中的一艘飞船还在向宇宙深处航行
[1:26:50] when it got four billion miles out in space, 它在太空已经行驶了40亿英里
[1:26:54] Carl Sagan said, “Let’s take another picture of the Earth.” 卡尔?萨根说 “让我们再给地球照张照吧”
[1:26:59] You see that pale blue dot? 看见那灰蓝色的点没有?
[1:27:02] That’s us. 那是我们
[1:27:04] Everything that has ever happened in all of human history 人类历史的一切事情
[1:27:08] has happened on that pixel. 都发生在那个像素上
[1:27:11] All the triumphs and all the tragedies. 所有的胜利 所有的悲剧
[1:27:14] All the wars, all the famines. 所有的战争 所有的饥荒
[1:27:17] All the major advances. 所有的先进技术
[1:27:20] It’s our only home. 这是我们唯一的家
[1:27:23] And that is what is at stake. 现在它却情况危急
[1:27:28] Our ability to live 我们在地球上
[1:27:32] on planet Earth, 生存
[1:27:35] to have a future as a civilization. 并发展文明的能力
[1:27:42] I believe this is a moral issue. 我相信这是个道德问题
[1:27:45] It is your time to seize this issue. 现在该你来解决这个问题
[1:27:48] It is our time to rise again, to secure our future. 该我们再一次起来 确保我们的未来
[1:28:04] There’s nothing that unusual about what I’m doing with this. 我这样做没有什么不寻常的地方
[1:28:10] What is unusual is that I had the privilege to be shown it 不寻常的是我作为一个年轻人
[1:28:14] as a young man. 有权把它展示出来
[1:28:17] Ladies and gentlemen, Mr. Al Gore. 女士们 先生们 有请阿尔?戈尔先生
[1:28:20] It’s almost as if a window was opened through which 就好像打开了一扇窗户
[1:28:24] 通过它你可以把未来看得清清楚楚
[1:28:24] the future was very clearly visible.
[1:28:30] “See that?” he said, “See that? “看见了吗?” 他说 “看见了吗?
[1:28:34] “That’s the future in which you are going to live your life. “ “那就是你我将要生活的未来”
[1:29:01] Future generations 下一代
[1:29:04] may well have occasion to ask themselves, 也许有机会问他们自己
[1:29:07] “What were our parents thinking? “我们父母是怎么想的?
[1:29:10] “Why didn’t they wake up when they had a chance?” “他们有机会清醒的时候怎么没醒来呢?”
[1:29:19] We have to hear that question from them, now. 我们现在已听到他们在这么问了
[1:29:33] 你准备好要改变自己的生活方式了吗?
[1:29:38] 气候危机可以被解决
[1:29:42] 由此开始
[1:29:44] 登录
[1:29:46] www.climatecrisis.net
[1:29:51] 你可以降低你的碳排放量
[1:29:54] 实际上 你可以降低你的碳排放量至零
[1:30:03] 买高效率使用能源的电器 +灯泡
[1:30:08] 调整你的空调温度(使用空调定时开关功能) +减少供暖使用能源 +制冷
[1:30:13] 增强你的房屋越冬能力 增加隔热材料 聘请一个能源审计
[1:30:17] 再利用
[1:30:24] 如果可以 买一辆电油两用车
[1:30:27] 可以的时候 多走路和骑自行车
[1:30:32] 尽量多乘坐轻轨 +公共交通工具
[1:30:42] 告诉父母不要毁灭你将生活的世界
[1:30:49] 如果你是家长 与你的孩子 一起去拯救他们将生活的世界
[1:31:02] 使用可再生能源
[1:31:05] 打电话问电力公司是否提供绿色能源
[1:31:08] 如果回答为否 问为什么不
[1:31:15] 选发誓要解决这危机的领导人
[1:31:17] 写信给国会
[1:31:20] 如果他们不听 去参加议员竞选
[1:31:29] 种树
[1:31:31] 很多树
[1:31:39] 在你的社区大声宣传
[1:31:42] 打电话给广播节目并写信给报社
[1:31:45] 坚持要求美国停止二氧化碳排放
[1:31:48] + 加入国际性反对全球变暖组织
[1:31:58] 减少对国外石油的需求量
[1:32:01] 帮助农民生产乙醇燃料
[1:32:05] 提高燃料节约措施标准
[1:32:08] 要求汽车降低排放量
[1:32:16] 如果你相信祈祷
[1:32:19] 祈祷人们能找到
[1:32:22] 改变的勇气
[1:32:36] 一句老非洲谚语说道
[1:32:40] 当你祈祷时
[1:32:42] 动动脚
[1:32:45] 鼓励你认识的每一个人来看这部电影
[1:32:49] 尽你所能了解气候危机
[1:32:55] 将你的知识付诸行动
2006年

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