英文名称：The Big Short
年代：2015
推荐：千部英美剧台词本阅读
| 时间 | 英文 | 中文 |
|---|---|---|
| [01:20] | Hiya, Frank. How are the wife and kids? | 嘿 弗兰克 老婆孩子还好吧？ |
| [01:23] | You know, for you, I’m considering | 你考虑过 |
| [01:24] | treasury bonds and utility stocks. Smoke? | 买国库券或事业公司股票吗 抽烟吗 |
| [01:30] | you went into to make large sums of money. | 赚大钱的行业 |
| [01:34] | It was a fucking snooze. | 绝对废柴行业 |
| [01:37] | Filled with losers. Like selling insurance or | 到处是穷鬼 都是来卖保险 |
| [01:40] | accounfing. | 做帐的 |
| [01:41] | And if banking was boring, | 如果银行业废柴的话 |
| [01:43] | then the bond department at the bank was straight-up comatose. | 证券部门就是植物人呆的地方 |
| [01:46] | We all know about bonds. | 大伙都知道证券是怎么回事 |
| [01:48] | You give them to your snot-nosed kid when he turns 15. | 把证券当礼物送给你的15岁小屁孩 |
| [01:50] | Maybe when he’s 30 he makes a hundred bucks. | 到他30了 能拿到一百来块钱 |
| [01:52] | Boring. | 无聊之极 |
| [01:53] | That is, until Lewis Ranieri came on the scene at Salomon Brothers. | 千呼万唤 所罗门兄弟公司的刘易斯·拉涅里驾临 |
| [02:02] | You might not know who he is, but he changed your life | 这名不经传的人物 对你的影响… |
| [02:04] | more than Michael Jordan, the iPod and YouTube put together. | 比起迈克尔·乔丹 iPod YouTube视频网站加起来还要大 |
| [02:10] | All right, gentlemen! Let’s get some money in here! | 好了 先生们 咱们一起发财吧 怎么样？ |
| [02:12] | Let’s make some money! What do you say? | 一起发财吧 怎么样？ |
| [02:15] | You see, Lewis didn’t know it yet, | 可能当时刘易斯还不知道 |
| [02:17] | but he had already changed banking forever | 但其实他已经改变了历史 |
| [02:19] | with one simple idea. | 就用最简单的这个点子 |
| [02:21] | The mortgage-backed security. Or private-label MBS. | 房贷证券 或者私营房贷证券 |
| [02:27] | You’ve got your average person’s mortgage. | 你们都背着普通的房贷 |
| [02:29] | Fixed rate, 30 years. | 固定利率 30年还清 |
| [02:30] | Boring, safe, small payoff, right? But, | 简单 安全 小笔钱偿还 对吧？但是… |
| [02:35] | when you have thousands of them all bundled together, | 如果你把上千个房贷打包起来 |
| [02:38] | suddenly the yield goes up but the risk is still small because, | 忽然回报率上升了 但风险还很小 因为 |
| [02:41] | well, they’re mortgages! | 它们是房贷 |
| [02:42] | And who the hell doesn’t pay their mortgage? | 哪个神经病不还房贷呢？ |
| [02:44] | What exactly is the credit rating on this bond? | 这种证券评级怎么样？ |
| [02:46] | This bond, gentlemen, is AAA-rated. | 证券评级… 是AAA级别 |
| [02:50] | This is exactly what the Michigan state pension fund has been looking for. | 这就是我们密西根州养老基金一直找的啊 |
| [02:53] | I’ll buy $20 million. | 我买两千万 |
| [02:55] | – Oh, come on, live a little. – $25 million. | – 别扫兴啊 放开点 – 两千五百万 |
| [02:58] | The money came raining down, | 钱就像下雨一样来了 |
| [03:01] | and for the first time, | 起初 |
| [03:02] | the banker went from the country club to the strip club. | 银行家破例从乡村具乐部跑到了脱衣舞夜总会 |
| [03:08] | Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential. | 很快 股票和存款都没人考虑了 |
| [03:11] | They were doing $50, $100, $200 billion | 每年大伙都买卖5百亿 1千亿 2千亿的 |
| [03:13] | in mortgage bonds and dozens of other securities a year. | 房贷证券 还有几十种其他证券 |
| [03:25] | And America barely noticed as its number one industry | 美国人都没注意到金融行业已经 |
| [03:28] | became boring old banking. | 成为领头羊 |
| [03:34] | And then one day, almost 30 years later, in 2008, | 然后三十年后 08年的一天 |
| [03:38] | it all came crashing down. | 一切轰然倒塌 |
| [03:43] | March. Bear Stearns was in a death spiral | 三月 贝尔斯登公司陷入泥潭 |
| [03:46] | and the Fed brokered its sale. | 美联储帮忙救急 |
| [03:48] | It’s been called the worst financial crisis in modern times. | 现代历史上最严重的经济危机 |
| [03:51] | Certainly the largest financial disaster in decades in this country, | 几十年以来最大的金融海啸 |
| [03:55] | and perhaps the end of an era in American business. | 很可能是整个时代最糟的情况了 |
| [03:58] | In the end, Lewis Ranieri’s mortgage-backed security | 到最后 刘易斯·拉涅里的房贷证券 |
| [04:01] | mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy. | 异变成了摧毁全球经济的怪物 |
| [04:05] | And none of the experts or leaders or talking heads | 专家 领导人或者电视上的权威 |
| [04:07] | had a clue it was coming. | 都没能预料到 |
| [04:10] | I’m guessing most of you still don’t really know what happened. | 我估计你们也没弄明白发生了什么事情 |
| [04:13] | Yeah, you got a soundbite you repeat so you don’t sound dumb, but come on. | 是啊 大家也就是人云亦云一下… |
| [04:16] | Our financial institutions are strong. | 我们的金融机构是强有力的 |
| [04:20] | But there were some who saw it coming. | 不过确实有人预料到这事儿发生 |
| [04:22] | While the whole world was having a big old party, | 整个世界都在虚假狂欢 |
| [04:24] | a few outsiders and weirdos saw what no one else could. | 少数的局外人和怪才却独具慧眼 |
| [04:28] | Not me. I’m not a weirdo. I’m pretty fucking cool. | 不是我 我才不怪呢 我的酷事儿 |
| [04:31] | But we’ll meet again later. | 等会再跟你说 |
| [04:34] | These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy. | 这些人发现了经济中心的弥天大谎 |
| [04:37] | And they saw it by doing something | 方法不难 |
| [04:38] | the rest of the suckers never thought to do. | 只是随大流的人永远不会去做： |
| [04:42] | They looked. | 亲自去了解 |
| [04:56] | During the 1930s, | 贯穿整个20世纪30年代… |
| [05:00] | the housing market collapsed nationwide | 房产市场… 全国性的崩溃 |
| [05:06] | by roughly 80%. | 大概80%都完了 |
| [05:08] | I mean, half of all mortgage debt was in default. | 其中有一半的房贷都违约了 |
| [05:13] | And, I mean, there were very | 而且 我是说 那时候有… |
| [05:17] | specific identifiers, extremely recognizable. | 明确的鉴别指标 相当好认 |
| [05:24] | I mean, for instance, | 稍等 比方说 |
| [05:25] | one of the hallmarks of mania | 狂热的标志之一 |
| [05:28] | is the rapid rise in complexity and the rates of fraud. | 是快速上升的复杂性和欺诈性的利率 |
| [05:32] | And did you know that they’re going up? | 居然在上升 |
| [05:55] | I’ve always been more comfortable alone. | 我这人习惯自己呆着 |
| [06:06] | I believe maybe it’s because of my glass eye. | 可能是我玻璃假眼的原因吧 |
| [06:13] | I lost the eye in a childhood illness. | 小时候得过病 眼睛坏了一边 |
| [06:20] | It separates me from people. | 我就不再合群了 |
| [06:27] | And did you know that they are going | 利率居然在 |
| [06:29] | Up? | 上升 |
| [06:30] | The highest fraud rates since the 1930s. | 欺诈性的利率达到了30年代最高点 |
| [06:34] | Hey, hey, it’s okay. It’s okay. | 嘿 嘿 没事的 没事的 |
| [06:36] | No, I didn’t know that. | 我还真不了解 |
| [06:43] | In 1933, the fourth year of the Great Depression. | 我是说1933年大萧条的第四年 |
| [06:47] | Let’s wash it off and put it back in. | 把伤口洗干净 然后回到赛场 |
| [06:49] | You were playing so great, son. | 你表现的一直很好 孩子 |
| [06:51] | I even heard the coach say it. | 教练都表扬你了 |
| [06:54] | Can we just go home? | 我想回家 |
| [06:56] | Most social interactions are awkward for me and for the person. | 所有社交活动 都会让我和对方不舒服 |
| [07:01] | Even when I try to compliment someone, | 哪怕我想夸夸别人 |
| [07:04] | it comes out wrong. | 也词不达意 |
| [07:06] | You have a very nice haircut. Did you do it yourself? | 你头型不错啊 你自己理的吗？ |
| [07:11] | What? | 你说啥？ |
| [07:12] | No. No, I… | 不是我… 嗯… |
| [07:23] | I’m sorry. I’m just… | 抱歉 别往心里去 |
| [07:31] | I’m going on and on. | 我老是这样 |
| [07:32] | My wife told me I need to share more. | 我老婆让我多和别人交流 |
| [07:36] | – That seems healthy. – Yeah. | – 听起来挺好的建议 – 对 |
| [07:51] | So do I get the job? | 那我就在这儿干了？ |
| [07:52] | I really think I could help your fund. | 我觉得我能帮你筹款 |
| [07:56] | Yeah. | 好啊 |
| [07:57] | Yeah, sure. Go on. | 那太好了 去吧 |
| [08:02] | – You’re… – David. Great. | – 你叫？ – 大卫 太棒了 |
| [08:05] | I guess I’ll go find a desk. | 那我去找个位子 |
| [08:07] | Is there anything you want me to work on for start… | 有什么我能上手帮到你的工作吗？ |
| [08:12] | Yeah. | 有 |
| [08:14] | You could let me know later. I could come back. | 你回头找我也行 |
| [08:18] | Did you think it was strange when | 你觉得当时奇怪吗… |
| [08:23] | the tech bubble burst in 2001 | 2001年互联网泡沫破裂的时候… |
| [08:26] | and the housing market in San Jose, | 硅谷的房价… |
| [08:28] | the tech capital of the world, | 世界科技中心的房价… |
| [08:32] | Went up? | 却逆势上涨… |
| [08:34] | – Wasn’t that strange? – No. | – 难道不奇怪 – 不 |
| [08:36] | No, it’s housing. Housing is always stable. | 这是房产… 房产一直很稳定 |
| [08:39] | Low risk. It’s solid. | 风险也低 很稳定 |
| [08:40] | That’s the idea, yeah. | 我说的就是这点很奇怪 |
| [08:42] | I want you to get me | 我要你帮我找到… |
| [08:44] | the top 20 selling mortgage bonds. | 卖的最火的20个房贷证券 |
| [08:47] | So you want to know what the top 20 selling mortgage bonds are? | 你想要知道最火的20家是哪些？ |
| [08:50] | No, no, no, I want to know what mortgages are in each one. | 不 不 不 我要知道每一家的所有房贷数据 |
| [08:56] | Okay, aren’t those mortgages made up of… | 好吧 这些房贷不是… |
| [08:59] | Wait, aren’t those bonds made up | 稍等 这些房贷证券不是 |
| [09:00] | of thousands and thousands of mortgages? | 成千上万个房贷组成的吗？ |
| [09:02] | Yeah. | 是啊 |
| [09:08] | Right away, Dr. Burry. | 我这就去办 巴里博士 |
| [09:29] | I am a nice guy all day long. | 我人不错 整天乐呵呵的 |
| [09:33] | Ask anyone, I’m a pleasure to work with. | 你去问别人 大伙都愿意和我相处 |
| [09:38] | But the second my son screws up, I am… | 可是我儿子只要办砸了事儿 我… |
| [09:43] | …yelling at him just like my dad did to me. | 我就对他吼 就像我爸对我一样… |
| [09:48] | I hear the words that are coming out of my mouth and… | 感觉自己控制不住自己的嘴… |
| [09:51] | Sorry I’m late! No cabs. | 抱歉我迟到了 没出租车 |
| [09:56] | So, get this. | 你们评评理 |
| [09:58] | I met with this retail banker yesterday. | 昨天我和私人银行的一个人聊 |
| [10:01] | I’m supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund, | 本来是让他投资我的基金 |
| [10:04] | but instead | 结果 |
| [10:05] | I start grilling him about overdraft penalties | 我开始和他较真有关透支的问题 |
| [10:08] | and how his bank will let a customer write 10-12 checks | 他的银行让客户写了十几个支票 |
| [10:11] | before they tell them they’re overdrawn. | 还不告诉客户已经透支了 |
| [10:13] | And this creep is making billions off screwing over people this way. | 这个小人用这种卑鄙的方式赚了十亿多 |
| [10:17] | And I’m getting madder and madder. | 我越来越压不住火 |
| [10:18] | And I ask him, I look him in the face and I say, | 我问他 瞪着他 质问他 |
| [10:22] | “How can you sleep at night | 你晚上睡得着觉吗？ |
| [10:24] | “knowing that you are ripping off working people?” | 不怕鬼叫门吗 |
| [10:28] | And you know what he did? He left. | 你猜怎么着… 他扭头走了 |
| [10:30] | He just walks out of the lunch, doesn’t say a word. | 也不理我 直接走人 |
| [10:32] | What the fuck is that? | 这他妈是什么玩意？ |
| [10:33] | Who’s fucked up in that scenario? Am I? | 好像我惹着他了 错在我？ |
| [10:36] | Or is this douchebag, who leaves me hanging? | 还是这个人渣？把我晾在那儿 |
| [10:38] | Is he the fucked up one? | 谁更操蛋？ |
| [10:40] | We have talked about this numerous times. | 咱们以前说过几次了 |
| [10:43] | You can’t come in late and hijack the entire session. | 你不能迟到了就抢别人的话 |
| [10:46] | What do you mean? I didn’t hijack the meeting. | 你说什么啊 我没抢啊 |
| [10:47] | – Did I hijack the session? – Yeah. | – 我抢话了吗？- 抢了 |
| [10:50] | – What do you do? – I’m in commodities. | – 你干啥的？- 我做商品期货的 |
| [10:53] | Good luck with that. | 我等着看你的好戏 |
| [10:54] | Mark, I know you suffered a terrible loss. | 马克… 我知道你刚失去了亲人 |
| [10:58] | Maybe you want to talk about that. | 你想要聊聊吗 |
| [10:59] | I don’t talk about that. | 这事儿我不会开口 |
| [11:00] | Hold on. | 稍等 |
| [11:02] | Hold on… | 稍等… |
| [11:03] | Shit, I have to take this. Sorry. Sorry. | 我得接电话了 抱歉 对不起了 |
| [11:07] | No… I don’t care, Porter. | 伯特 你怎么做我不管 |
| [11:09] | This guy’s whole business is built on ripping people off. | 这家伙赚的钱是刮人骨头来的 |
| [11:11] | How long can that last? | 能撑多久 |
| [11:14] | Bye, everybody! | 大伙再见 |
| [11:16] | 95… 95… | |
| [11:18] | That’s 30 days late… Sixty days late… | 这个逾期30天 这个60天没交了 |
| [11:23] | They pay on time… | 按时还贷 |
| [11:28] | These FICO scores… | 这些FICO信用评分… |
| [11:35] | Late. And they caught up on their payments… | 你们这下现原形了… |
| [11:39] | Another 30 days late… | 30天逾期 |
| [11:40] | LTV, 95… LTV, 90… They caught up on their payments… | 贷款价值比 大概是95 可能是90 |
| [11:43] | Sixty days late? Jesus! | 60天逾期 天哪 |
| [11:45] | LTV, 110? I’ve never heard of that! | 贷款价值比 110 闻所未闻 |
| [11:47] | Thirty days late, rate adjusts… | 30天逾期 利率调整 |
| [11:50] | In ’07 rate adjusts… | 07年利率调整 |
| [11:51] | In ’06 rate adjusts… | 06年利率调整 |
| [11:52] | 95.. 90… Jesus! | 95 90 天啊 |
| [11:56] | He hasn’t moved all day. | 他一天都没动窝了 |
| [11:58] | He does this every few days. | 他每隔几天都这样一次 |
| [12:00] | He hasn’t spoken to me since he hired me. | 他雇了我以后就没再理过我 |
| [12:02] | Maybe the LTV’s at… High-risk, | 贷款价值比 处于高风险 |
| [12:04] | interest-only… I never heard of that mortgage history, | 只还利息 我从来没有听说过房贷历史有过 |
| [12:06] | I never heard of that… How? | 我从未听说过 怎么啦 |
| [12:09] | Michael, how are you, guy? | 迈克尔 你还好吗 |
| [12:10] | Lawrence, I found something really interesting. | 劳伦斯 我找到了有意思的东西 |
| [12:13] | Great, Michael. Whenever you find something interesting, | 迈克尔你干的好 你每次找到有意思的东西 |
| [12:15] | we all tend to make money. | 我们就能躺着赚钱了 |
| [12:17] | – What stock are you valuing? – No, no, no, no. No stocks. | – 看上哪个股票了 – 不 不 不… 不是股票 |
| [12:20] | I want to short the housing market. | 我要做空房地产市场 |
| [12:23] | Really? But the housing market is rock solid. | 是吗？房地产市场可是坚如磐石 |
| [12:26] | Greenspan just said | 格林斯潘说过 |
| [12:28] | bubbles are regional, defaults are rare. | 泡沫是局部现象 断供的很少 |
| [12:30] | Tell them I’ll be there in a minute. | 告诉他们我一会就到 |
| [12:33] | – Say again? – Look, look… | – 你再说一遍 – 听好了 |
| [12:34] | Greenspan’s wrong. | 格林斯潘说错了 |
| [12:36] | I don’t think you mean to do this, but sometimes you sound very | 我知道你不是故意的 可你有时候说话 |
| [12:40] | dismissive and superior. | 太瞧不起人 |
| [12:42] | It’s a fact. Greenspan’s wrong. | 事情本来就是这样 格林斯潘错了 |
| [12:43] | I don’t know how else you want me to say… | 你让我怎么说… |
| [12:46] | Look, Michael. | 听着 迈克尔 |
| [12:47] | Metro Capital backed you four years ago | 四年前你还是个博士 |
| [12:49] | when you were a doctor with a | 只有个破网站和一点继承来的钱 |
| [12:51] | dinky webpage and some inheritance money. | 我们全球国际资本就力挺你了 |
| [12:53] | We’ve all done very well. | 一直以来业绩也不错… |
| [12:54] | Why don’t you just stick with stocks? | 你继续做股票… |
| [12:56] | Look. You know me. I, I, I… | 你了解我这个人 我 我 |
| [12:58] | I look for value wherever it can be found. | 我的风格就是找能赚钱的地方 |
| [13:02] | And the fact is | 情况就是 |
| [13:03] | that these mortgage-backed securities are filled | 这些房贷证券… |
| [13:06] | with extremely risky subprime adjustable-rate loans. | 里面有相当高风险的可调利率房贷 |
| [13:10] | And when the majority of the adjustable rates | 等这部分到07年左右 |
| [13:12] | kick in, in ’07, | 开始发作 |
| [13:15] | they will begin to fail. | 市场就会衰退 |
| [13:16] | And if they fail above 15%, the whole bond is worthless. | 如果最终能占到15%以上 整个房贷证券市场就毫无价值 |
| [13:19] | Michael, just take a beat. | 迈克尔 停下来再想想 |
| [13:22] | We’ll talk about this later, okay? | 回头我再找你聊 好吗？ |
| [13:23] | Lawrence, please, don’t patronize me. Listen… | 劳伦斯 别给我来这套 如果 |
| [13:26] | Mortgage-backed securities. | 房贷证券 |
| [13:28] | – It, it, it… – Subprime loans. Tranches. | – 这 这 – 次级贷 份额… |
| [13:31] | It’s pretty confusing, right? | 名词让人头疼是吧？ |
| [13:33] | Does it make you feel bored? Or stupid? | 是不是让你觉得智商特别低 |
| [13:35] | Well, it’s supposed to. | 这就是它的本意 |
| [13:38] | Wall Street loves to use confusing terms | 华尔街特别爱用玄乎的词儿 |
| [13:39] | to make you think only they can do what they do. | 让你觉得只有他们才能做的来 |
| [13:42] | Or, even better, | 或者你撒手不管 |
| [13:44] | for you to just leave them the fuck alone. | 他们就更高兴了 |
| [13:46] | So here’s Margot Robbie in a bubble bath to explain. | 我们让演员玛格在泡泡浴里解释给你听 |
| [13:49] | Basically, Lewis Ranieri’s mortgage bonds | 大概意思就是 刘易斯的房贷证券 |
| [13:52] | were amazingly profitable for the big banks. | 让大银行疯狂赚钱 |
| [13:55] | They made billions and billions on their 2% fee | 他们从2%的买卖提成中 |
| [13:59] | they got for selling each of these bonds. | 赚了几十亿 |
| [14:01] | But then they started running out of mortgages to put in them. | 但慢慢房贷不够用来组成证券了 |
| [14:05] | After all, there are only so many homes | 毕竟 房子和能买房的人 |
| [14:07] | and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them, right? | 都是有数儿的 对吧？ |
| [14:11] | So the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages. | 银行就开始把风险越来越高的房贷做成证券 |
| [14:16] | Thank you, Benter. | 谢了 本特 |
| [14:17] | That way they can keep that profit machine churning, right? | 这样的话 机器就能一直转着了 |
| [14:22] | By the way, these risky mortgages are called subprime. | 对了 这些高风险的房贷 就叫:次级贷 |
| [14:26] | So whenever you hear “subprime”, think | 下回 听到次级贷这个词 你就想： |
| [14:28] | “shit”. | 狗屎贷 |
| [14:30] | Our friend Michael Burry found out that these mortgage bonds | 迈克尔老兄发现… 这些房贷证券 |
| [14:34] | that were supposedly 65% AAA | 本来应该至少有65%的3A评级 |
| [14:37] | were actually just mostly full of shit. | 但其实里面就是一坨屎 |
| [14:40] | So now he’s going to “short” the bonds. | 所以他要做空房贷证券 |
| [14:43] | Which means to “bet against”. | 也就是 赌房产市场跌 |
| [14:46] | Got it? | 懂了吧？ |
| [14:48] | Good. | 太好了 |
| [14:52] | Now fuck off. | 别看姐洗澡了 |
| [14:53] | It’s only a matter of time before someone else sees this investment. | 很快人们就会发现这个机会的 |
| [14:56] | We have to act now! | 咱们得快点干 |
| [14:58] | How do you know the bonds are worthless? | 你怎么就知道这些证券不值钱？ |
| [15:00] | Aren’t they filled with fucking thousands | 这里面不是他妈的有上千页 |
| [15:02] | of pages of mortgages? | 房贷吗？ |
| [15:03] | I read them. | 我都看了 |
| [15:06] | – You read them? – I read… Yes. | – 你都看了？- 我都看了 |
| [15:08] | No one reads them. Only the lawyers who put them together read them. | 没人这么去读的 打包房贷的证券律师才不得不看 |
| [15:11] | Look, I don’t think that they even know what they’ve made. | 听着 我觉得他们也不懂纸里包的是什么 |
| [15:16] | The housing market is propped up on these | 有这些垃圾贷款 房地产注定 |
| [15:20] | bad loans, and I’m… | 火不起来 我… |
| [15:22] | It’s a time bomb, and I want to short it. | 定时炸弹在 我要做空房产市场 |
| [15:24] | Through what instrument, Michael? | 凭藉什么做空 迈克尔？ |
| [15:27] | There are no insurance contracts or options for mortgage bonds. | 现在还没有做房贷证券的保险或期权 |
| [15:30] | – The bonds are too stable. – Lawrence… | – 这证券太稳定没人做 – 劳伦斯… |
| [15:36] | This is what I’m gonna do. I am gonna get a bank | 我打算这么干 我要让银行 |
| [15:40] | to make me one. | 专门为我做一个 |
| [15:43] | And then | 然后… |
| [15:45] | I’m gonna buy it. | 我再买下来 |
| [15:48] | I don’t want that kind of business. | 我不做这种买卖 |
| [15:50] | Money is not money. That’s bad money. | 这钱不干净 是黑心钱 |
| [15:53] | Hey! Excuse me! | 嘿 看着点 |
| [15:57] | Let me ask you this. What company treats its customers | 我问你 什么公司这么玩弄客户 |
| [16:00] | that shittily and succeeds? | 还能做大？ |
| [16:04] | Fine. Okay, Goldman. You’re right. | 好吧 高盛银行 随便你 |
| [16:05] | Mark Baum had built his career | 马克之所以成功 |
| [16:07] | on never assuming anyone or any company | 是因为他从不为任何 |
| [16:09] | was legit without proving it. | 不合法的生意做担保 |
| [16:11] | When he was a kid he excelled at studying | 他小的时候在 |
| [16:12] | the Talmud in Yeshiva. Whatever. | 犹太学院学法典时 不管怎样 |
| [16:14] | But one day his rabbi told his mom why. | 有天他老师对他妈说 |
| [16:18] | Paul is a fine boy, and Mark is an excellent student | 保罗不错 马克学习法典 |
| [16:21] | of the Torah and the Talmud. | 也成绩优异 |
| [16:23] | Then what’s the problem, rabbi? | 那还有什么问题 老师？ |
| [16:25] | It’s the reason Mark is studying so hard. | 是因为马克努力学习的理由 |
| [16:29] | He’s looking for inconsistencies in the word of God! | 他是想要找到上帝福音中的矛盾之处 |
| [16:35] | So has he found any? | 那他找到了吗？ |
| [16:39] | Later, Baum started his own fund on Wall Street. | 以后 马克就在华尔街成立了自己的基金 |
| [16:42] | He had an amazing nose for bullshit. | 他对屁话可是有狗一样嗅觉 |
| [16:43] | And he wasn’t afraid to let anyone know when and where | 哪里有蠢蛋在胡说 他都会给大伙指出来何时何地 |
| [16:46] | the bull had gone number two. | 牛市变了 |
| [16:48] | But then a tragedy happened to Mark, | 后来马克经历了不幸 |
| [16:50] | and it turned his world view dark | 整个世界观都阴暗了 |
| [16:51] | and ready to believe the whole system was a lie. | 开始觉得整个金融系统都是骗局 |
| [16:54] | Hold on. | 稍等 |
| [16:56] | It’s Cynthia. I’ll be in the office in 20 minutes. | 辛西娅找我 我20分钟到办公室 |
| [16:59] | Hi, honey. | 亲爱的 |
| [17:02] | The therapist called. You did it again. | 咨询师打电话给我 你怎么又这样了 |
| [17:06] | There were no cabs. What was I supposed to do? | 没出租车有什么办法 |
| [17:09] | I worry about you, Mark. | 我很担心你的状态 |
| [17:11] | At least I went. | 我至少去报到了 |
| [17:13] | – You’re running around like you have to right every wrong in the world. – Okay. | – 你这样 像是想把全世界都理顺了 – 好吧 |
| [17:17] | You’re so angry. | 一直气鼓鼓的 |
| [17:18] | Fine. You know what? | 你说的对 |
| [17:20] | I’m a mean guy and I’m pissed off. | 我就是心眼小 现在还生气了 |
| [17:23] | But it is a shit storm out here, sweetie. | 可我这个圈子 |
| [17:25] | You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling. | 留下烂摊子 擦屁股走人的太多 |
| [17:28] | And everyone’s walking around like they’re in a goddamn Enya video. | 大伙还脸上自带拍恩雅MTV的表情 |
| [17:33] | They’re all getting screwed, you know. | 以后他们全被玩完 |
| [17:34] | You know what they care about? They care about the ballgame. | 他们关心什么？关心球赛 |
| [17:37] | Or they care about what actress just went into rehab. | 关心哪个女演员去戒毒了 |
| [17:40] | I think you should try medication. | 你得让医生给你开点药了 |
| [17:42] | No, no. We agreed. If it interfered with work. | 不行 咱俩商量过 影响工作的药不能吃 |
| [17:45] | You hate Wall Street. Maybe it’s time to quit. | 你这么恨华尔街 消消气就别干了 |
| [17:48] | – I love my job. – You hate your job. | – 我爱这一行 – 你恨这一行 |
| [17:50] | – I love my job. – You’re miserable. | – 我爱这一行 – 你都这么郁闷了 |
| [17:52] | I love my job. I love my job, honey. | 我爱我的工作 真的 亲爱的 |
| [17:55] | Mark… | 马克 |
| [17:57] | I am sad every day about what happened. | 想起发生的事情 我每天也心里不舒服 |
| [18:00] | I know you must feel the same, but you never show it. | 你肯定也不好受 可你从来不表现出来 |
| [18:10] | I know how close you were to your brother. | 我知道你们兄弟俩关系很好 |
| [18:16] | Paul. | 保罗 |
| [18:18] | Where’d you go, Paul? | 你去哪儿了 保罗？ |
| [18:25] | Paul! | 保罗 |
| [18:32] | Every day I think you’re gonna talk about it, but you never do. | 每天我都觉得你想开口聊聊 可你总是忍着 |
| [18:38] | Will you at least think about the idea of making a change? | 你能试着做一点改变吗？ |
| [18:42] | Fine. Fine. Honey, you know what? I will consider it. | 好吧 亲爱的 我会认真考虑的… |
| [18:45] | But, honestly, Cynthia. I’m okay. I really am. | 不过我真的没事儿 辛西娅 放心 |
| [18:49] | Hey, hey, hey! No, no. | 嘿 嘿 嘿 不 不 |
| [18:51] | My cab. That’s my cab. That’s my cab. That is my cab. | 这是我抢来的出租 我的出租 我的 |
| [18:54] | – Schmuck. Fuck you. – Fuck you. | – 蠢货 滚蛋 – 滚蛋 |
| [18:56] | – Fuck you. – Fuck you. | – 你滚蛋 – 去死 |
| [18:59] | I’ll call you later. | 我等会再打给你 |
| [19:07] | I want to buy swaps on mortgage bonds. | 我要买… 房贷证券的互换 |
| [19:12] | A credit default swap that will pay off | 这种信用违约互换 来担保 |
| [19:15] | if the underlying bond fails. | 房贷证券不能兑换的情况 |
| [19:18] | You want to bet against the housing market? | – 你想要赌房价跌？ |
| [19:20] | – Yes. – Why? | – 是的 – 为什么？ |
| [19:22] | Those bonds only fail | 除非 |
| [19:23] | if millions of Americans don’t pay their mortgages. | 有上百万的美国人房贷断供才有可能 |
| [19:26] | That’s never happened in history. | 历史上从来没有过这种事 |
| [19:28] | If you’ll excuse me, Dr. Burry, it seems like a foolish investment. | 恕我直言 巴里博士 我觉得您投资不太明智 |
| [19:31] | Well, based on prevailing sentiment of the market and banks in popular culture, | 按照市场和银行的主流预期和大众看法 |
| [19:36] | yes, it’s a foolish investment. But… | 我这么做是不明智 但是 |
| [19:39] | Everyone’s wrong. | 所有人都错了… |
| [19:43] | That’s a good one. | 不错的想法 |
| [19:47] | This is Wall Street, Dr. Burry. | 巴里博士 华尔街是赚钱的地方 |
| [19:48] | If you offer us free money, we are going to take it. | 有免费的钱 我们自然来者不拒 |
| [19:50] | My one concern is that when the bonds fail, | 我唯一的顾虑是 万一房贷市场垮了 |
| [19:56] | I want to be certain of payment | 我要确保你们赔付… |
| [20:00] | in case of solvency issues with your bank. | 你们万一偿还能力不够 我的钱怎么办 |
| [20:03] | I’m sorry, are you for real? | 您不是在说笑吧 |
| [20:06] | You wanna bet against the housing market | 你想要赌房地产崩溃 |
| [20:08] | and you’re worried we won’t pay you? | 还担心我们不能赔付你？ |
| [20:09] | Yes, that’s correct. | 是的 就是这意思 |
| [20:22] | …unless the market crashes. | 我觉得我们能做成这笔买卖 |
| [20:24] | The market on housing’s never gonna crash | 房贷证券不可能出事的 |
| [20:26] | because it’s so solid right now. | 现在市场还非常稳固 |
| [20:29] | I mean, who doesn’t pay their mortgages? | 那我们继续和他谈 |
| [20:39] | Dr. Burry, | 巴里博士 |
| [20:40] | we could work out a pay-as-we-go structure | 我们会制定一个 |
| [20:43] | that would pay out if the bonds fail. | 现收现付的赔付办法 |
| [20:45] | But it would also apply to your payments | 这也意味着 您的付款方面 |
| [20:46] | if the value of the mortgage bond goes up. | 如果证券势头上涨 |
| [20:48] | You’d have to pay us monthly premiums. | 你要每个月付给我们保险费用 |
| [20:51] | Is that acceptable, Dr. Burry? | 您能同意这样的条款吗 巴里博士？ |
| [20:56] | Yes. Yes. | 很好 没问题 |
| [20:59] | I have prospectuses on six mortgage-backed securities I want to short. | 我这里有招股说明书想给你看6个房贷证券 |
| [21:09] | Majority of the mortgages… | 这些多数是审批过的房贷 |
| [21:22] | I don’t see us losing any money on these at all. | 这交易绝对不会亏钱 |
| [21:38] | Dr. Burry, these should be fine. | 巴里博士 这些应该没问题 |
| [21:40] | Yeah. We’re prepared to sell you $5 million | 好 我们能卖给你5百万的 |
| [21:42] | in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds. | 房贷证券的信用违约互换 |
| [21:45] | Can we make it $100 million? | 能不能卖给我一亿？ |
| [21:50] | Absolutely, we can make it $100 million. | 那也没问题 我们能准备好一亿 |
| [21:54] | We’ll be in touch, send some paperwork over. | 我们会联系你 把文书发给你 |
| [22:00] | I like these cups. Can I take one for my son? | 我挺喜欢这杯子的 想给我儿子带一个 |
| [22:03] | Have… Yes. Yes. | 拿走吧 好的 |
| [22:05] | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| [22:06] | Have two. | 拿走两个也行 |
| [22:28] | Is there any way to do $200 million? | 有可能卖给我2亿吗？ |
| [22:32] | I mean, we can. But are you sure? | 我们是可以… 但你得想清楚了 |
| [22:36] | Absolutely. Absolutely, we can do that. | 当然… 我们当然可以 |
| [22:53] | We do different projects. We do gardening. | 我们有各种服务 比如园艺等… |
| [22:56] | The bonds I’d like to bet against. | 有关证券 我想… |
| [23:00] | It’s not bad seeing yourself on the big screen. | 别人说你走极端也没什么不好的 |
| [23:01] | It’s very cool. | 这样活着才酷 |
| [23:03] | I ordered the 24-ounce T-bone, which was choice. | 好比我本来想买24盎司的T骨牛排 结果 |
| [23:07] | – I went for volume… – Yeah. | – 却拿到了8盎司的碎肉 – 嗯 |
| [23:09] | …rather than prime. | 我想买顶级的 |
| [23:10] | I went for subprime, and the gist was… | 却买了次级的 主要是 |
| [23:35] | Hey, Randall! What’s with the Dom? | 兰达尔 你现在就这么逍遥？ |
| [23:37] | Bonuses aren’t for three months. | 三个月后才发奖金呢 |
| [23:39] | We just sold $200 million in credit swaps for mortgage bonds. | 我们刚卖了2亿的房贷证券的信用违约互换 |
| [23:43] | Some fund manager from California. | 一些加利福尼亚冒出来基金经理 |
| [23:45] | It’s fucking crazy, right? | 真是疯子 对吧？ |
| [23:46] | A whole new way to make money, Doug. | 老伙计 咱们就得赚傻子的钱 |
| [23:48] | Wait, wait. I didn’t know there were swaps on mortgages. | 有这种违约互换？ |
| [23:50] | There are now. We made it for him. | 现在就有了 陪他玩儿么 |
| [23:53] | He must have gone off his Zoloft or something. | 他脑袋估计塞屁股里去了吧 |
| [23:54] | I don’t know. | 我不知道 |
| [23:56] | – Want to join? No? – Just a second. | – 来一杯吗 – 稍等 |
| [23:59] | Hey, Jared. | 嘿 杰瑞德 |
| [24:00] | Did you hear about the deal that Randall just did | 你听说了兰达尔和一个基金经理 |
| [24:02] | with some fund manager? | 做的买卖吗 |
| [24:03] | Randall? Bullshit. | 兰达尔？扯蛋吧 |
| [24:05] | He’s a foot soldier. I’m sure it’s a shit deal. | 他没脑子 肯定不是赚钱买卖 |
| [24:07] | No, it’s for real. | 是真的 |
| [24:10] | I told you we’d meet later. | 跟你说过咱们会再见面的 |
| [24:11] | Unfortunately, it’s in a place like this which I would never be. | 不巧是这种鬼地方 我平常不会来的 |
| [24:14] | I never hung out with these idiots after work, ever. | 我不和这些傻子下班后散心 |
| [24:16] | I had fashion friends. | 我的朋友比他们有品味 |
| [24:19] | Apparently, this guy wanted $200 mil in credit default swaps. | 看起来 确实有人要买2亿的信用违约互换 |
| [24:22] | Randall made the sale. Can you believe it? | 兰达尔也做成了买卖 你敢信？ |
| [24:24] | Somebody shorted $200 mil on mortgage bonds? | 有人敢做空2亿的房贷证券？ |
| [24:26] | That was just with Deutsche. Word is he hit half the town. | 这还只是在德意志银行 听传闻说 他扫遍了半个城市的银行 |
| [24:31] | How much in total? | 总共多少？ |
| [24:32] | $1.3 billion. | 一共13亿 |
| [24:34] | What? That’s pretty much all of Salon’s liquidity. | 说什么？赛恩的流动资金也就这么多啊 |
| [24:37] | Michael, this is highly distressing. | 迈克尔 你这太过分了吧 |
| [24:40] | Lawrence, that is not all of our liquidity. | 劳伦斯… 我们流动资金没用完 |
| [24:44] | And I’m not certain | 我觉得 |
| [24:45] | that you really understand this trade. | 你没弄明白这买卖是怎么回事 |
| [24:47] | This is a certainty. | 这是必赚的钱 |
| [24:48] | Mike, I consider myself a mentor to you. | 迈克尔 我和你平常是师生关系都好说 |
| [24:52] | But our company is not comfortable with this investment. Am I being clear? | 但是这笔投资对公司绝对不合适 我说话你听明白了吗？ |
| [24:56] | Lawrence, I have full autonomy | 劳伦斯 对于投资策略 |
| [24:58] | when it comes to investment strategy. | 我拥有完全自主权 |
| [25:01] | You can read our agreement. | 你去看合同 |
| [25:02] | Do not throw our inception agreement in my face, Michael. | 别给我扯官腔 迈克尔 |
| [25:06] | We had an underlying | 那是咱俩有 |
| [25:07] | understanding you wouldn’t act like a goddamn crazy man. | 内部共识的基础上 现在你就像个疯子一样 |
| [25:09] | This is not crazy. | 这不是疯狂 |
| [25:11] | It’s all very logical. | 这完全是逻辑推理 |
| [25:13] | So, now we pay up premiums on these swaps | 那现在我们就每月付费 |
| [25:15] | against the housing market until the mortgages fail? | 坐等着房地产崩溃？ |
| [25:18] | In other words, we lose millions | 也就是说 马上就损失了几百万 |
| [25:20] | until something that’s never happened before happens? | 除非天真塌下来？ |
| [25:27] | That’s correct. | 说的没错 |
| [26:01] | Hello, Mark Baum. | 你好 马克·鲍姆 |
| [26:02] | Oh, hey, Kathy, you busted me. | 你好 凯茜 别怪我 |
| [26:05] | – I had a personal thing this afternoon. – I’m not your babysitter. | – 我下午有私事 – 我不是你的保姆 |
| [26:07] | If FrontPoint makes money for Morgan Stanley, I’m happy. | 只要你给咱们摩根士丹利赚钱 我就开心 |
| [26:09] | Okay. Hey, did I hear you’re expecting? | 好吧… 听说你要生了？ |
| [26:12] | We’re expecting to be expecting. | 那个 我们是打算要小孩… |
| [26:13] | LVF’s are cleaning us out but we’re staying positive… | 虽然我不好解释得太清楚… |
| [26:15] | That’s exciting! | 那也是好事儿 |
| [26:21] | …lump on my ball. And I go in for a scan. | 蛋蛋那里有个肿块 我去检查了一下 |
| [26:25] | Turns out that I have a very large thing called an epididymis. | 结果是叫什么”附睾”肿了 |
| [26:29] | Which is a thing that goes around the ball | 这东西环绕着蛋蛋 |
| [26:31] | and is like a sac underneath. | 好像下面兜着个口袋一样 |
| [26:33] | – I have an extremely pronounced epididymis. – I’m riveted… | – 我的附睾清晰可见 – 我被吸引 |
| [26:36] | I’m riveted by this. Do you have any pictures? | 我被这吸引 你有照片吗？ |
| [26:38] | It’s almost as large as another testicle unto itself. | 肿得和睾丸一样大 |
| [26:42] | So get this. Cynthia… | 拿好了 辛西娅… |
| [26:44] | Guys. Cynthia wants me to quit and open a B&B in Vermont. | 伙计们 辛西娅想让我辞职不干了 让我在佛蒙特州开个过夜旅馆 |
| [26:48] | That sounds great. I’d love to see Mark Baum run a bed and breakfast. | 挺好的主意 我挺想看你会怎么开旅馆 |
| [26:52] | Like, “Here’s your steel-cut oatmeal, asshole.” | 估计是这样：”吃你的燕麦粥吧 白痴 “ |
| [26:54] | Mark refused to kiss the ring of the people with the checkbooks, | 马克不愿意讨好那些能开出支票的顾客 |
| [26:57] | so he had to set up his fund under Morgan Stanley’s umbrella. | 所以才委屈自己在摩根士丹利旗下开设基金 |
| [27:00] | His small team reflected his distrust of the system. | 他的团队也反映出他对金融系统的质疑态度 |
| [27:03] | You guys are sick. You’re sick. | 你们一群变态 变态 |
| [27:05] | She says this job is making me unhappy. | 她说 这工作让我不爽 |
| [27:07] | But you’re happy when you’re unhappy. | 可你不爽的时候反倒挺爽的 |
| [27:08] | I am happy when I’m unhappy. | 我是在不爽的时候感觉挺爽的 |
| [27:10] | Vinnie Daniel. | 文尼·丹尼尔 |
| [27:11] | You know how to make a muffin? | 你知道怎么做松饼吗？ |
| [27:12] | – Mark’s numbers guy. – Do you even know ‘now | – 文尼是马克手下懂数字的人 – 你甚至连怎么洗衣服 |
| [27:14] | – to do laundry? Make a bed? – Okay… | – 都不知道吧？铺床呢？- 好吧 |
| [27:16] | Vinnie lost his father to a violent crime when he was young. | 文尼小的时候 爸爸就因为一场恶性犯罪去世了 |
| [27:18] | Just like Mark, he didn’t talk about it. | 和马克一样 他也从来不说起这事 |
| [27:20] | I don’t talk about that. | 我就是不说 |
| [27:22] | Cynthia’s no joke. She could actually make him move to Vermont. | 辛西娅这么认真 还真有可能赶他到佛蒙特州去 |
| [27:24] | I mean, she made me start wearing a seatbelt. | 她都逼着我穿西服了 |
| [27:26] | – Hey, you want me to… – Porter Collins. | – 嘿 你想要我… – 伯特？柯林斯 |
| [27:28] | Former Olympic rower who went to Brown. | 布朗大学的奥运会级别划船手 |
| [27:30] | He worked with Baum at a previous firm | 从上一个公司和马克一起过来 |
| [27:32] | and couldn’t figure out why no one listened to Baum. | 搞不懂为什么没人听马克的 |
| [27:34] | The guy with all the good ideas. | 他觉得马克提出的都是好点子 |
| [27:36] | Sorry. I think you have the wrong FrontPoint. | 抱歉 你是不是打错电话了？ |
| [27:38] | ‘Cause there is another FrontPoint in this same building that is bonds. | 这里还有个叫前点基金的公司？ |
| [27:40] | And Danny Moses. The optimist of the bunch. | 丹尼·摩西 是这群人里的乐天派 |
| [27:44] | And a hell of a trader. | 他是交易鬼才 |
| [27:45] | Which is the only reason they put up with his bullshit optimism. | 也这是大伙容忍他傻瓜式乐天派的唯一原因 |
| [27:49] | That was a weird call. | 一个奇怪的电话 |
| [27:50] | You take longer with a wrong number than anybody else. | 你对打错电话的也太客气了 |
| [27:53] | It was this guy from Deutsche | 这家伙是德意志银行的 |
| [27:56] | who was talking about shorting housing bonds. | 说什么做空房贷证券 |
| [28:00] | And then in the middle of the call I realized he had the wrong FrontPoint. | 说到中间 我才听出他找错人了 |
| [28:03] | And then… ‘Cause he wanted the one on the 8th floor. | 然后他说想要找8层的那个公司 |
| [28:06] | He wanted to short housing bonds? | 他想要做空房贷证券？ |
| [28:08] | That happens like five times a day | 每天至少5个拨错的电话 |
| [28:09] | that somebody gets the wrong FrontPoint. | 某人给了他错误的前点基金电话 |
| [28:10] | – We should change our name. – Wait. Wait. | – 咱们得改个名了 – 稍等 |
| [28:13] | He wanted to short housing bonds? | 他想要做空房贷证券？ |
| [28:15] | Who bets against housing? | 赌房价跌吗？ |
| [28:18] | – What’s the ABX at? – What’s ABX? | – 资产担保证券指数到几点了？- 这指数什么意思？ |
| [28:20] | It tracks subprime mortgage bond value. Go back to sleep. | 用来跟踪次级房贷证券的价值 回去睡你的觉 |
| [28:23] | The ABX is at… | 指数在… |
| [28:26] | Wow, it’s down! It’s down three points since last year. | 我的天 降下来了 去年到现在降了3点 |
| [28:29] | That’s weird. I haven’t heard a peep about that. | 这不对劲 怎么一点动静都没听到过 |
| [28:31] | What was this guy’s name? | 这人叫啥？ |
| [28:33] | Jared Vennett. Vennett. | 杰瑞德·威内特 威内特 |
| [28:35] | That’s right. These lucky sons of bitches | 这是真的 这群中奖了的杂种 |
| [28:37] | caught wind of one of the best trades in Wall Street history | 抓住了华尔街历史上最好的一桩交易 |
| [28:40] | from a wrong number. | 因为我拨错的电话 |
| [28:42] | They should have paid 10% to my fuckstick assistant. | 他们应该给我的错误电话线路抽成10% |
| [28:44] | His name was Jared Vennett. Vennett. | 叫杰瑞德·威内特 威内特 |
| [28:46] | Jared Vennett from Deutsche. Sounded very sketchy. | 杰瑞德·威内特 德意志银行 听着就不靠谱 |
| [28:48] | Sounds like a douchebag. | 听他说话就让人不爽 |
| [28:50] | Do you smell that? | 你闻到了吗？ |
| [28:52] | Do you smell that? | 你闻到了吗？ |
| [28:53] | I smell money. | 我闻到钱的味道 |
| [28:56] | This is your basic mortgage… | 这是你的基本房贷… |
| [29:01] | Okay, hi. How are you? | 嘿 你们好啊 |
| [29:03] | Have a seat. | 请坐 |
| [29:04] | Okay, Mr. Vennett from Deutsche Bank. What do we have? | 来自德意志银行的杰瑞德 我们洗耳恭听了 |
| [29:12] | There you go. | 给 |
| [29:17] | So, how many people have you talked to about this trade? | 你和多少人聊过？ |
| [29:20] | A few. There’s definitely some interest. | 有几个 有意向的还不少 |
| [29:23] | No! My boss would have my ass… | 不 我老板知道了非得弄死我不可 |
| [29:24] | – N.O.! – You crazy, Jared? | – 不 – 你疯了吧？杰瑞 |
| [29:26] | – Get lost. – Fuck you. | – 别废话 – 滚蛋 |
| [29:28] | Which is why you’re here talking to us, a wrong number. | 所以你才打错电话给我们 |
| [29:31] | Sounds like there’s a lot of interest. | 听着确实感兴趣的人不少哇 |
| [29:32] | All right. A few people have invited us in | 好吧 有的人和我聊天 |
| [29:35] | just to laugh at me on this deal. Is that you? | 就是看笑话寻开心 你们也不想谈正事吗？ |
| [29:37] | Is that what this is? | 你们也是这意思？ |
| [29:38] | That’s not what this is. | 我们不是这类人 |
| [29:39] | That’s just how Mark is. | 就马克爱开这种玩笑 |
| [29:41] | – Let’s see what you got. – I’m sorry. | – 和我们详细说说 – 抱歉 |
| [29:43] | – You smell that? – What is that? | – 你闻到什么东西了吗？- 闻到什么？ |
| [29:44] | – What? – What’s that smell? | – 什么？- 这是什么味道？ |
| [29:46] | – Your cologne? – No. | – 古龙水吗？- 不… |
| [29:51] | – Opportunity. – No. Money. | – 发财的机会 – 不 钱的味道 |
| [29:53] | Okay. | 好吧 |
| [29:55] | – I smell money. – Okay. | – 我闻到钱味儿了- 好吧 |
| [29:57] | – Chris, God damn it. – Sorry. | – 克里斯 该死的 – 抱歉 |
| [30:03] | This is your basic mortgage bond. | 这就是你们房贷证券的构成 |
| [30:05] | All right? The originals were simple. | 对吧？开始很简单 |
| [30:08] | They were just thousands ofAAA mortgages bundled together, | 就是几千个3A级房贷组合起来 |
| [30:11] | guaranteed by the U.S. government. | 政府担保 |
| [30:13] | The modern ones are different. | 而现代的房贷证券就不一样了 |
| [30:15] | They’re private. And they’re made up of layers of tranches. | 是私营的 而且由分层份额构成意为某物的一部分 |
| [30:23] | The highest level, AAA, is getting paid first. | 最高的3A级最先偿还 |
| [30:26] | The lowest rated, B, is getting paid last, | 最差的B级最后还 |
| [30:27] | taking on defaults first. | 会首先断供 |
| [30:29] | Now, obviously, if you’re buying B’s, you could make more money. | 显然断供的B级 能要回更多的钱来 |
| [30:32] | But they’re a little risky. | 但是有点风险 |
| [30:33] | Sometimes they fail. | 有时候也可能偿还不了 |
| [30:36] | Chris? | 克里斯… |
| [30:42] | Somewhere along the line, these B’s and BB’s | 某处开始 有些B级或者2B级 |
| [30:44] | went from a little risky | 从有点风险 |
| [30:45] | to dog shit. Where’s the trash? | 变成狗屎贷 垃圾桶在哪 |
| [30:48] | It’s right behind you. | 就在你后面 |
| [30:49] | I’m talking rock-bottom FICO scores. | 我说的是最低的信用评分 |
| [30:53] | No income verification. | 没有收入核实 |
| [30:56] | Adjustable rates. Dog shit! | 可调利率贷款 就是狗屎 |
| [31:00] | The default rates are already up from 1% to 4%, fellas. | 违约率已经到了1至4个百分点 |
| [31:03] | And if they rise to 8%, and they will, | 等到了8%… 也肯定会到的 |
| [31:06] | a lot of these BBB’s are going to zero, too. | 那这些3B级的房贷也会一钱不值 |
| [31:09] | And that… You’re too close. | 这… 别离我这么近 |
| [31:12] | – …is an opportunity. – Okay. | – 这就是发财机会 – 好吧 |
| [31:14] | You’re saying that at 8% the bonds fail and we are already at 4%? | 你说8%的警戒线 现在已经到4%了？ |
| [31:18] | That’s right. | 没错 |
| [31:19] | If they go to 8%, it’s Armageddon? | 到了8就是世界末日了 |
| [31:21] | Yeah. That’s right. | 是的 没错 |
| [31:22] | How come nobody’s talking about this? | 那怎么没人提到过这事儿 |
| [31:24] | You’re completely sure of the math? | 你计算没问题吗？ |
| [31:26] | Look at him. That’s my quant. | 好好看看他 他是我的矿工 |
| [31:28] | Your what? | 你的啥？ |
| [31:30] | My quantitative! | 我的量化研究员 |
| [31:31] | My math specialist. Look at him. | 我的数学专家 瞧瞧他 |
| [31:34] | You notice anything different about him? Look at his face. | 看到有什么与众不同的吗？看看他的脸 |
| [31:37] | That’s pretty racist. | 你这也太种族歧视了… |
| [31:38] | Look at his eyes! I’ll give you a hint. | 看看他的眼睛 我提示你们一下… |
| [31:40] | His name’s Yang! | 他的名字叫做”杨” |
| [31:43] | He won a national math competition in China! | 他得了国家数学竞赛的金牌 还是中国的竞赛 |
| [31:46] | He doesn’t even speak English! | 他连英语都不会说 |
| [31:49] | Yeah, I’m sure of the math. | 所以没错 我对数字有信心 |
| [31:52] | Actually, my name’s Jiang and I do speak English. | 其实我名字叫”江” 我也会说英语 |
| [31:56] | Jared likes to say I don’t because he thinks | 杰瑞喜欢这么说 |
| [31:58] | it makes me seem more authentic. | 是想要让我看起来更牛逼一些 |
| [32:00] | And I got second in that national math competition. | 我其实得了数学竞赛第二名 |
| [32:03] | So you’re offering us a chance to short this pile of blocks? How? | 所以你让我们做空这堆积木吗？怎么做空？ |
| [32:08] | With something called a credit default swap. | 用信用违约互换来做 |
| [32:12] | It’s like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust | 就像是证券的保险 不过如果证券完了 |
| [32:14] | you can make 10-to-1, even 20-to-1 return. | 那你能拿到10倍的赔偿 甚至有可能拿到20倍 |
| [32:17] | And it’s already slowly going bust! | 崩溃趋势已经开始了 |
| [32:20] | 10-to-1? 20-to-1? No way. | 10倍 20倍 怎么可能 |
| [32:22] | And no one’s paying attention. | 也没人注意到 |
| [32:24] | No one is paying attention! | 没人亲自去了解 |
| [32:27] | Because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees | 因为银行忙着卖证券 |
| [32:31] | to sell these bonds. | 暗地里拿提成 |
| [32:32] | But wait. You are the bank. You work for the bank. | 稍等 可你就是银行的人 你为银行工作 |
| [32:35] | I bet your margins are pretty nice and fat. | 那你的提成也富的流油吧 |
| [32:37] | Let’s not talk about my margins, by the way. | 我的提成和这个没关系 |
| [32:39] | Being nice and fat, that’s a nice shirt. Do they make it for men? | 这是我私事 好比我看你衬衫不错 合不合适男的 |
| [32:43] | Aren’t you the bank? | 你不替银行说话？ |
| [32:44] | I work for the bank. I don’t think like a bank. | 我给银行打工 银行的事跟我没半毛关系 |
| [32:47] | Big bank, small bank, I like to make money. All right? | 大银行小银行 我赚的是钱 对吧？ |
| [32:51] | Let me put it this way. I’m standing in front of a burning house… | 让我直说 这就像我来到失火大楼前面 |
| [32:54] | And I’m offering you fire insurance on it. | 现场让你们买火灾保险 |
| [32:56] | How can these underlying bonds be as bad as you say? | 怎么可能这些证券像你说得那么差 |
| [32:59] | It wouldn’t be legal. | 没人管吗 |
| [33:00] | Nobody knows what’s in them. | 没人知道里面装的什么东西 |
| [33:02] | Nobody knows what’s in the bonds. | 没人知道在证券里有什么猫腻 |
| [33:04] | I’ve seen some that are 65% AAA-rated | 我见到过65%达到3A评级的 |
| [33:07] | that I know for a fact are filled with 95% | 其实95%都是次级狗屎 |
| [33:10] | FICO | 评分300-850700以上认为是优 |
| [33:10] | subprime shit with FICOs below 550! | 信用评分都低于550 |
| [33:13] | Get the fuck out of here. | 你就吹吧 |
| [33:15] | You want me to really blow your mind? | 真想被我吹晕了吗？ |
| [33:16] | When the market deems a bond too risky to buy, | 要是市场觉得一个证券风险太高了 |
| [33:18] | what do you think we do with it? | 那你觉得我们怎办？ |
| [33:20] | – Take a guess. – I don’t know. You tell me. | – 你们猜吧 – 我不知道 才让你说 |
| [33:23] | All right. You think we just warehouse it on the books? No. | 好 你以为像书本上说的用仓单存货抵押吗？假的 |
| [33:27] | We just repackage it with a bunch of other shit | 实际上我们重新打包 混上 |
| [33:29] | that didn’t sell and put it into a CDO. | 其他卖不出去的东西 放到CDO里面卖 |
| [33:32] | – A CDO? – Yes. A CDO. | – CDO？- 对 这东西叫CDO |
| [33:34] | – What is that? – This is where we take a bunch of B’s, | – 是什么？- 把一些没人买的B |
| [33:36] | BB’s and BBB’s that haven’t sold, | 2B 3B级烂贷 |
| [33:39] | and we put them in a pile. | 打包成一堆… |
| [33:42] | And when the pile gets large enough, | 数量差不多了 |
| [33:44] | the whole thing is suddenly considered diversified | 就忽然叫做”分散化投资”了 |
| [33:46] | and the whores at the rating agency give it a 92%-93% AAA rating, | 等着评级机构的婊子们 评个百分之92到93的3A级别 |
| [33:51] | no questions asked. | 其他屁都不放 |
| [33:55] | – Hold it. – What? Say that again. | – 见鬼 – 什么 你再说一遍 |
| [33:58] | A collateralized debt obligation. | CDO 担保债务凭证 |
| [34:00] | It’s important to understand because it’s what allowed | 理解CDO很重要 CDO才是让房产危机… |
| [34:02] | a housing crisis to become a nationwide economic disaster. | 祸害全国经济的关键 |
| [34:06] | Here’s world-famous chef Anthony Bourdain to explain. | 让我们的世界顶级厨师安东尼·伯尔顿解释一下 |
| [34:14] | Okay, I’m a chef on a Sunday afternoon setting the menu at a big restaurant. | 假设我正给一个周日下午的大餐厅备菜 |
| [34:17] | I ordered my fish on Friday, | 我周五定购的鱼 |
| [34:19] | which is the mortgage bond that Michael Burry shorted. | 就好比迈克尔·巴里做空的房贷证券 |
| [34:22] | But some of the fresh fish doesn’t sell. | 有些鱼 没卖出去 |
| [34:24] | I don’t know why. Maybe it just came out halibut has the intelligence of a dolphin. | 我也不知道原因 没准这比目鱼成精了有海豚一样的智商 |
| [34:27] | So, what am I going to do? | 那我该怎么办呢？ |
| [34:29] | Throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB level of the bond, | 把这些3B评级的鱼扔掉吗？ |
| [34:33] | in the garbage and take the loss? | 认亏了？ |
| [34:36] | No way. | 没必要 |
| [34:37] | Being the crafty and morally onerous chef that I am, | 我这么心灵手巧… |
| [34:40] | whatever crappy levels of the bond I don’t sell, | 每种卖不掉的烂证券 |
| [34:42] | I throw into a seafood stew. | 我都扔到海鲜汤里去 |
| [34:45] | See, it’s not old fish. It’s a whole new thing! | 这不再是烂鱼 这是新东西 |
| [34:48] | And the best part is they’re eating 3-day-old halibut. | 最妙的地方就在于 卖给顾客的名头 是零售比目鱼 |
| [34:52] | That is a CDO. | 这就是CDO |
| [34:54] | I just need to know, how could these possibly be collated? | 怎么可能这些东西被攒到一起 |
| [34:57] | Somehow you’re like Dora the Explorer | 你好像《爱探险的朵拉》主人公 |
| [34:59] | and you’re the first person | 老是第一个 |
| [35:00] | – who found this thing. – Hold on. Hold on. | – 发现大新闻 – 稍等 稍等 |
| [35:02] | So mortgage bonds are dog shit, | 你是说房贷证券是狗屎？ |
| [35:04] | CDOs are dog shit wrapped in cat shit. | CDO是猫屎包起来的狗屎 |
| [35:07] | Yeah, that’s right. | 对 就是这个理儿 |
| [35:09] | Institutions treat these CDOs like they’re as solid as treasury bonds, | 机构们还把CDO当成国库券一样的宝贝 |
| [35:13] | and they’re going to zero. | 等着它们一钱不值吧 |
| [35:15] | No. That can’t be right. There were $500 billion | 不对啊 去年一年就卖了 |
| [35:18] | in housing bonds sold last year alone. | 5千亿的房贷证券 |
| [35:20] | The rating agencies, the banks, the fucking government, | 信用评级机构 银行政府也掺和在里面？ |
| [35:23] | you’re saying they’re all asleep at the wheel? | 你这就像在说他们闭着眼开车 |
| [35:25] | Yeah. My whole department’s long on this stuff. | 没错 我整个部门都对这种狗屎流口水 |
| [35:30] | They call me Chicken Little. They call me Bubble Boy. | 他们反倒叫我胆小鸡仔 他们叫我泡沫男孩 |
| [35:36] | A’s, zero. B’s, zero. | A级废了 B级废了 |
| [35:40] | BB’s, zero. BBB’s, zero. | 2B级废了 3B级 也是废品 |
| [35:45] | And then that happens. | 接下来就是这个了 |
| [35:47] | What is that? | 这是啥？ |
| [35:50] | That’s America’s housing market. | 这就是美国的房产市场 |
| [35:55] | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| [35:56] | Fuckin’ A, Jared. | 说的好 杰瑞德 |
| [35:57] | Shut your fucking mouth. | 给我闭嘴 |
| [35:59] | – …hang outwith you. – Good. Okay. | – 和你一起 – 很好 好的 |
| [36:02] | Sack up, do the deal. Let’s be friends. | 获取利润 达成成交 让我们是朋友 |
| [36:04] | We will see. Thank you. | 我们会看到的 谢谢 |
| [36:05] | – Don’t bullshit me. – All right. | – 不要忽悠我 -好的 |
| [36:06] | You’re gonna say no, aren’t you? | 你要说不 是不是？ |
| [36:08] | No. No, I’m just evaluating right now. | 不 不 我只是在评估 |
| [36:10] | Thank you. Thank you for coming in. | 谢谢 谢谢你的到来 |
| [36:13] | Bye, Jared. | 再见 杰瑞德 |
| [36:20] | I don’t like it. | 这不对劲 |
| [36:23] | He’s playing us. | 他肯定有猫腻 |
| [36:25] | He’s playing us. He’s got too much skin in the game | 他在玩我们 他陷得太深了 拉人垫背 |
| [36:27] | and he’s dumping his position. | 然后他脱身 |
| [36:30] | What if he’s right? | 要是他说的是真的呢 |
| [36:32] | – You want him to be right. – Yes, I do. | – 你当然希望他说的是真的 – 我是希望 |
| [36:35] | The banks have given us 25% interest rates on credit cards. | 银行给我们信用卡的利息是25% |
| [36:38] | They have screwed us on student loans that we can never get out from under. | 助学贷款也坑了大家 普通人已经没法脱身了 |
| [36:42] | Then this guy walks into my office and says | 然后这家伙 走到我办公室里说 |
| [36:45] | those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market, | 这些银行太贪婪 已经忽视了市场真相了 |
| [36:48] | and I can profit off of their stupidity? | 然后我还能通过他们的愚蠢赚钱 |
| [36:50] | Fuck, yeah, I want him to be right! | 妈的 我当然希望他是对的 |
| [36:52] | How come you don’t hate this guy? | 你怎么能不讨厌他？ |
| [36:54] | He’s everything you taught us not to trust. | 你告诫我们注意的骗子特征他身上全有 |
| [36:56] | I can’t hate him. | 我恨不起来 |
| [36:56] | He is so transparent in his self-interest that I kind of respect him. | 他这么把自己的利益摆到台面上 我倒挺尊敬他 |
| [37:00] | Would I buy a car from him? No. | 我会从这种人手里买车吗？肯定不会 |
| [37:03] | Is he right about the mortgage market? | 但是他说的房贷市场情况是否属实？ |
| [37:04] | – No. – Let’s find out. Let’s find out. | – 不属实 – 咱们自己去调查看看 去调查 |
| [37:08] | Look. It’s two very simple questions. | 我们只要回答两个简单问题 |
| [37:10] | Is there a housing bubble? | 房地产有没有泡沫？ |
| [37:12] | And if there is, how exposed are the banks? | 如果有 银行了解多少？ |
| [37:14] | Yeah. Okay. | 好 好 |
| [37:16] | Let’s get on this quickly too. | 咱们赶快行动 |
| [37:17] | Because if he’s right, | 如果情况属实 |
| [37:19] | every loser with a couple million bucks and a fund is gonna be jumping on this. | 那有点钱的基金都会来找我们的麻烦 |
| [37:23] | Let’s go. | 现在就出发 |
| [37:32] | JPMorgan Chase. JPMorgan Chase. | 摩根大通 摩根大通 |
| [37:37] | Okay. Stop saying “JPMorgan Chase”. | 拜托 别再说摩根大通了 |
| [37:39] | I got a good feeling about this. | 我觉得咱们能交好运 |
| [37:41] | It’s just a meeting though, you know? | 就一个会面 你知道的 |
| [37:42] | It’s just a meeting. It’s something like… | 就一个会面 别抱太大期望 |
| [37:44] | People have meetings all the time. You know? | 会面天天都有… |
| [37:47] | People drink their coffee, they have a meeting. | 人们喝完咖啡 就去会面… |
| [37:48] | – Brownfield Fund? – Yes! | – 棕地基金？- 对 |
| [37:50] | – Hey. Hello. – Ted. | – 嘿 你们好 – 泰德 |
| [37:52] | – Chris – Chris | – 我叫克里斯 – 克里斯 |
| [37:53] | – I’m on Ted’s desk. – Okay. | – 我叫克里斯 泰德交易团队的前台 – 克里斯 你好 |
| [37:54] | – I’m Charlie, Charlie Geller. – Jamie. Jamie Shipley | – 我叫查理 查理·盖勒 – 我叫杰米 杰米·希普利 |
| [37:57] | Hi. | 嘿 |
| [37:57] | We’re so excited to get set up on your trading platform. | 我们太想在你们的交易平台上接入了 |
| [38:01] | Cool. | 很好啊 |
| [38:02] | Here, have a seat a second. | 先坐下聊一聊 |
| [38:04] | All right. | 好的 |
| [38:06] | So, I… Ted had asked me to do some meeting prep. | 我 泰德让我 先和你们见面聊聊 |
| [38:09] | But I couldn’t find any marketing material on you guys. | 可我一直找不到你们的宣传资料 |
| [38:13] | We just moved here from Boulder. | 我们是刚从科罗拉多州博尔德搬过来 |
| [38:15] | – Yeah. – Got it. | – 是的 – 知道了 |
| [38:16] | Could we see some of your offering documents? | 我能看看你们的招募书吗？ |
| [38:19] | Well, Brownfield is its own money. | 其实 棕地基金用的是我们自己的钱 |
| [38:22] | – It’s our money. – Yeah. | – 我俩的存款 -嗯 |
| [38:24] | Can you tell us how much you manage? | 说说你们资金规模是多大？ |
| [38:26] | Of course. We’re doing $30 million right now. | 好啊 我们现在做到3千万了… |
| [38:29] | – But we started four years ago with $110, 000. – Wow. | – 可是我们是4年前开始的 当时只有11万的本钱 – 厉害啊 |
| [38:33] | So, as you can see, that’s pretty phenomenal returns. | 所以你看 我们的投资回报率相当厉害 |
| [38:38] | We want to get an ISDA agreement with JPMorgan so we can | 我们想和摩根签署ISDA协议 |
| [38:41] | deal in long-term options. | 这样我们就能交易长线期权了 |
| [38:44] | – That’s really cool. – Yeah. | – 想法很好嘛 – 是啊 |
| [38:46] | 国际掉期及衍生产品协议 这个协议能够让投资者 坐在”大亨”席位上 阻止愚蠢的新手扰乱高水平的交易 | |
| [38:53] | 押注很大的交易员 如果没有ISDA 就像骑着羊驼 想要赢得超级印地赛车比赛冠军一样 | |
| [38:58] | That is so cool. | 你们的想法很好 |
| [39:00] | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| [39:01] | But you guys are under the capital requirements for an ISDA. | 不过呢 你们没达到ISDA的资本准入门槛 |
| [39:05] | By how much? | 差多少？ |
| [39:08] | One billion four hundred seventy million, so… | 差了十亿四千七百万 所以… |
| [39:13] | …a lot. | 还差挺多 |
| [39:15] | This makes us look bad, doesn’t it, | 这让我们看起来挺不专业的 是吗 |
| [39:17] | that we didn’t know what the capital requirements were? | 我们连资金要求都不知道 |
| [39:22] | It’s not great. | 影响是不太积极 |
| [39:24] | But | 不过呢 |
| [39:25] | keep up those returns and give us a call | 你们保持这样的利润率 |
| [39:28] | way down the line. You know. | 以后发达了 记得再给我们打电话 |
| [39:30] | Okay? | 好吗？ |
| [39:31] | – Okay. – Thanks, Chris. | – 好的 – 谢谢你 克里斯 |
| [39:32] | – Have a good one, guys. – Thank you, Chris. | – 祝你们好运 – 谢谢 |
| [39:38] | Shit! | 见鬼 |
| [39:41] | Who the fuck schedules a meeting | 谁他妈会安排 |
| [39:42] | – at 4:50 in the afternoon? – Oh, my, God. | – 下午4点50谈正事儿 – 哦 天啊 |
| [39:44] | That was so painful. | 真蛋疼 |
| [39:46] | Dude, B ofA and Bear didn’t even return our calls. | 美国银行和贝尔斯登没回电话也就算了 |
| [39:50] | – And even fucking Wachovia blew us off, man! – I know. | – 连美联银行这种大众货也不鸟我们 – 知道了 |
| [39:54] | Here’s the prospectuses of all the other losers | 这是其他一样在大厅里 |
| [39:56] | who didn’t make it past the lobby. | 就被拍死的家伙的招股书 |
| [39:58] | I don’t think I can do this anymore. You know. | 我真不想搞这个了 伙计 |
| [40:00] | I’m young, yet. I can still do something with my life. | 我还年轻 还能干点正事儿 |
| [40:03] | I miss Colorado anyway. The weed’s better. | 我想回科罗拉多老家 连大麻都比这边的飘 |
| [40:06] | Gentlemen, I need you to leave. | 先生们 请离开大厅 |
| [40:08] | Yep, yep, we’re going. Let’s go. | 好 我们马上走 咱们走 |
| [40:09] | Look at this. Look at this. | 看这个 看看这个 |
| [40:11] | This guy | 这人 |
| [40:12] | says that the housing market’s a giant bubble. | 说房地产市场就是一个大泡沫 |
| [40:17] | Okay, so this part isn’t totally accurate, you know. | 这部分情节和真实情况有些出入 |
| [40:20] | We didn’t find Jared Vennett’s housing bubble pitch | 我俩不是在大厅发现了 |
| [40:22] | in the lobby of a bank that rejected us. | 杰瑞德的推销资料 |
| [40:24] | The truth is | 实际情况是 |
| [40:26] | a friend had told Charlie about it, | 一个朋友告诉了查理这件事 |
| [40:27] | and I read about it Jim Grant’s Interest Rate Observer. | 我是从金融史学家吉姆·格兰特的个人期刊上读到的 |
| [40:30] | This is crazy. | 不敢相信 |
| [40:31] | This is crazy stuff. | 简直像胡说的东西 |
| [40:34] | Shit, he’s saying that there’s 10-to-1 returns | 这儿说房贷证券的信用违约互换 |
| [40:37] | on credit default swaps for mortgage-backed securities? | 是10倍的收益比 |
| [40:40] | And the whole housing market is about to collapse? | 现在房地产市场马上就要崩溃了 |
| [40:44] | For Jamie and Charlie, the housing market doomsday prediction was music to their ears. | 对他俩来说 听到这消息简直像猫闻到了腥味一样 |
| [40:56] | They had started working out of Jamie’s garage | 他俩在杰米家的车库创业起家 |
| [40:58] | with $110, 000 Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the East Coast. | 资金是杰米在东海岸倒卖帆船攒下来的11万 |
| [41:04] | Our investment strategy was simple. | 我们的投资策略很简单 |
| [41:06] | People hate to think about bad things happening, | 没人愿意听到坏消息 |
| [41:08] | so they always underestimate their likelihood. | 所以人们往往低估坏事发生的概率 |
| [41:10] | Their strategy was simple and brilliant. | 简单又高明的策略 |
| [41:13] | What he said. | 他说的对 |
| [41:14] | Jamie and Charlie found markets | 他俩发现 市场 |
| [41:16] | will sell options very cheaply on things they think will never happen. | 会低价贩卖认为不可能发生的事情的期权 |
| [41:19] | So when they were wrong, they were wrong small, | 所以 一旦失利 损失会很小 |
| [41:21] | but when they were right, they were right big. | 而一旦得利… 就能赚很多 |
| [41:30] | Within a few years they had turned $110, 000 into $30 million. | 几年间他们就把11万做到了3千万 |
| [41:34] | But then it was time to go to New York City. | 是时候去纽约了… |
| [41:35] | And so far, it wasn’t going very well. | 不过进展并不顺利 |
| [41:38] | So what if it does seem interesting. – No… | – 要是这个买卖可以做呢？- 不行 |
| [41:40] | No bank will give us our ISDA. We’re dead in the water. | 没有银行会和我们签ISDA协议 咱们没风掀不起浪啊… |
| [41:45] | These kind of trades are totally out of the question. | 这类交易完全搞不起 |
| [41:47] | We got to call Ben. | 咱们必须打电话给本 |
| [41:51] | Let’s call Ben! | 打给他 |
| [41:54] | Ben Rickert was a former trader in Singapore | 本·里克特是退下来的交易员 以前在摩根新加坡分行 |
| [41:56] | for Chase who quit the whole game in disgust. | 深深厌恶这一行就金盆洗手了 |
| [41:59] | He happened to be Jamie’s neighbor when they were in Colorado | 当年在科罗拉多州 本正好是杰米的邻居 |
| [42:01] | and they met walking dogs. | 因为本在遛狗 两人才认识 |
| [42:03] | But Ben was dark. | 不过本的世界观更阴暗 |
| [42:05] | He didn’t just think the whole system would fail. | 不只认为金融系统会崩溃 |
| [42:07] | He thought the whole world was going down. | 连全世界都会迟早毁灭 |
| [42:11] | Every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden. | 当然了 这些都是我花园里新鲜采摘的 |
| [42:16] | You guys should start your own garden. | 你们应该开一个自己的花园 |
| [42:17] | What you got to do is get your soil off the petrochemicals. | 别用石油化工的东西污染土壤 |
| [42:21] | I used wood ash and urine to help restore the soil. | 用木屑和尿来改良土壤 |
| [42:23] | It creates ammonium nitrate. | 增加单硝酸酯 |
| [42:25] | Seeds are gonna be the new currency. | 以后种子会成为硬通货 |
| [42:27] | And not those Franken-seeds from Monsanto. | 不是孟山都公司的基因改造种子 |
| [42:29] | I’m talking about good, healthy, organic seeds. | 我说的是原生态的健康种子 |
| [42:31] | Make yourself a garden. | 自己种菜 |
| [42:33] | – Learn to live off the land. – You’re a fucking lunatic. | – 自给自足 – 这有点精神过敏了吧 |
| [42:34] | Ben had real experience in a big bank. | 本有大银行的实际经验 |
| [42:36] | Jamie and Charlie had never even been in a Manhattan bank bathroom. | 杰米和查理连曼哈顿的银行厕所都没进过 |
| [42:40] | But Ben was done with the banking world. | 但本明确说过金盆洗手 |
| [42:42] | He was very clear. | 绝不再碰金融 |
| [42:43] | Do you realize that? -Alright, let’s crunch some numbers, | – 这点你想到了吗？- 咱们还是算清楚吧 |
| [42:45] | Then maybe we’ll talk about calling Ben – I don’t wanna crunch the numbers, | – 然后再打电话给本 – 我不想算来算去 |
| [42:48] | We’re always crunching numbers. | 每次咱们都是算了再决定的 |
| [42:49] | When haven’t we crunched the numbers? | 什么时候算清楚？ |
| [42:50] | We’re gonna crunch the numbers like harder… | 我们要算清楚就像… |
| [42:51] | I need you out of here. | 你们两个赶快离开 |
| [42:52] | – Of course. One second. – Yes, ma’am. We’re going. | – 好的 麻烦您了 – 马上就走 |
| [42:57] | Oh, God. I hate this. This is a total waste of time. | 天哪 真是自找麻烦 这调研绝对是浪费时间 |
| [43:00] | Oh, come on. Would you relax? | 别担心了 想开点 |
| [43:03] | There’s a housing development 45 minutes outside town. | 城外45分钟车程听说有新房 |
| [43:06] | Mark wants us to check that out first. | 我们要不就先去那里看看 |
| [43:08] | Well, I hope there are some Cuban restaurants on the way there. | 希望一路上有古巴口味的餐馆 |
| [43:10] | Because I heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami. | 听说在迈阿密 古巴食品是一绝 |
| [43:13] | Please don’t be chipper in the face of me being miserable. | 你这么开心简直幸灾乐祸 |
| [43:15] | It really makes me hate you. | 我恨你 |
| [43:17] | How is wanting to eat good food being chipper? | 我想吃好的 还惹着你了 |
| [43:21] | Hello? | 你好？ |
| [43:24] | Hello? | 你好？ |
| [43:26] | What do these go for? | 这些要干吗？ |
| [43:29] | $425, 000 each? | 42万5千一幢？ |
| [43:53] | What’s up, man? What do you want? | 有事吗？你们想干嘛 |
| [43:54] | Hello. I’m surveying mortgage owners who are over 90 days delinquent. | 我们正在调查已经90天断供房贷的房主 |
| [43:58] | I’m looking for a Harvey Humpsey. | 我找哈维·汉姆西 |
| [44:00] | You want my landlord’s dog? | 你找我房东的狗干嘛 |
| [44:04] | Your landlord filled out his mortgage application using his dog’s name? | 你房东用狗的名字填了房贷申请表？ |
| [44:08] | I guess so. | 看来是咯 |
| [44:09] | Wait, has that asshole not been paying his mortgage? | 等等 这混蛋没有再交房贷吗？ |
| [44:12] | ‘Cause I’ve been paying my rent. | 我可是一直在交房租啊 |
| [44:13] | Well, yeah, he is over 90 days delinquent. | 他是有90天没还房贷了 |
| [44:16] | Seriously, man, | 说真的 |
| [44:17] | am I gonna have to leave? | 我是不是要搬家了？ |
| [44:22] | ‘Cause my kid just got settled in school, man. | 我小孩才刚安排好在这儿上学 |
| [44:24] | Hey. How are ya? | 你好啊 |
| [44:27] | – My name’s Ken. – You’re Ken? | – 我叫肯 – 你是肯？ |
| [44:29] | You should talk to your landlord about that. | 你得直接问问你的房东了 |
| [44:31] | I’m sorry, I don’t have any more information. | 我这里没有什么能帮到你的了 |
| [44:33] | But you… | 不过你… |
| [44:35] | You have a great day. See ya, Ken. | 祝你们好运 再见 肯 |
| [44:37] | There’s books everywhere! | 到处是书 |
| [44:38] | Books everywhere? | 是吗？ |
| [44:40] | Seriously, man, is everything gonna be okay? | 真的… 不会真的有事儿吧？ |
| [44:44] | You should… You should call him. | 你得问… 你得问房东 |
| [44:47] | You should give him a call. | 打电话给他 |
| [44:48] | It’s not my fault, dude. I’ve been paying… | 错不在我身上 我可是一直在交房租 |
| [44:54] | Hello! | 你好 |
| [44:59] | Looks like the Mary Celeste. | 好像有人走得很急 |
| [45:01] | Look. All they took was the TV. | 看 就搬走了电视 |
| [45:04] | It’s weird. | 这不对劲 |
| [45:06] | They didn’t even clean out the cat litter. | 连厨房台面都没打扫 |
| [45:17] | Oh, God. | 老天爷 |
| [45:30] | It’s like Chernobyl. | 简直像核污染的切尔诺巴里 |
| [45:32] | There’s like a hundred houses. There can’t be four people living here. | 这大概有100间房子 也就4个人在住 |
| [45:37] | – Oh, fuck that! – Shit! | – 哦 妈的 – 见鬼 |
| [45:55] | – He’s been in there for seven hours. – Where does he go to the bathroom? | – 他在里面呆了7个小时了 – 在洗手间？ |
| [45:58] | I heard he had a breakdown. | 我听说他崩溃了 |
| [45:59] | He’s letting the fund tank. | 已经破罐子破摔了 |
| [46:03] | Dr. Burry’s office. | 巴里博士办公室 |
| [46:05] | No, he actually prefers that you email him. | 他还是希望你发邮件给他 |
| [46:06] | Excuse me. | 稍等 |
| [46:08] | Mr. Fields, Mr… | 菲尔兹先生 |
| [46:13] | – Hi, Lawrence. – Holy shit! | – 你好 劳伦斯 – 天啊 |
| [46:17] | We have no confidence in your ability to identify macroeconomic trends. | 我们对你预测宏观经济趋势的能力没有信心 |
| [46:24] | You flew here to tell me that? Why? | 你坐飞机来就为了说这个 为什么？ |
| [46:27] | Anyone can see that there is a real estate bubble. | 每个人都能看出来房地产有泡沫 |
| [46:30] | Actually, no one can see a bubble. | 没人能看出有泡沫 |
| [46:32] | That’s what makes it a bubble. | 你的想法才是泡沫 |
| [46:33] | That’s dumb, Lawrence. | 这么说太蠢了 |
| [46:36] | There’s always markers. | 总有线索可以找啊 |
| [46:38] | Mortgage fraud has | 房贷欺诈 |
| [46:41] | quintupled since 2000 | 2000年以后翻了5倍 |
| [46:43] | and the average take-home pay is flat, | 平均收入却没涨 |
| [46:45] | but home prices are soaring. | 房价暴涨 |
| [46:47] | That means the homes are debt, not assets. | 意味着房子不再用来住 而是投资品 |
| [46:49] | So Mike Burry of San Jose, a guy who | 那你这个迈克尔·巴里硅谷来的 |
| [46:52] | gets his hair cut at Supercuts and doesn’t wear shoes, | 在连锁理发店理发 不穿鞋 |
| [46:56] | knows more than Alan Greenspan and Hank Paulson. | 你就比格林斯潘和财政部长懂得多？ |
| [46:59] | Well… | 这个嘛 |
| [47:01] | Dr. Mike Burry, yes, he does. | 我虽然没和财政部长聊过 不过我确实更懂 |
| [47:04] | That’s cute. That’s cute. | 你还挺萌啊 |
| [47:06] | Are you being sarcastic with us, Mike? | 你这是在讽刺自己吗 迈克尔 |
| [47:12] | Lawrence, | 劳伦斯… |
| [47:13] | I don’t know how to be sarcastic. | 我这人不懂什么叫讽刺 |
| [47:16] | I don’t know how to be funny. I don’t know how to | 我也不会开玩笑 我不知道 |
| [47:20] | work people. | 礼尚往来 |
| [47:21] | I… | 我 |
| [47:23] | I just know how to read numbers. | 可我对数据是真的懂 |
| [47:25] | How big is your short position right now? | 你现在做空多少了？ |
| [47:29] | Just $1.3 billion. | 13亿 |
| [47:31] | – And the premiums? – Well, we pay | – 保费交多少？- 我们大概交 |
| [47:35] | roughly $80 to 90 million | 8千万到9千万 |
| [47:38] | each year, which is high, | 每年交 有点多 |
| [47:40] | but I was the first to do this trade. | 毕竟咱们开了先例 |
| [47:42] | Watch. It will pay. I may have been early, but I’m not wrong. | 等着吧 肯定能赚钱 我最先趟的道 但方向是对的 |
| [47:45] | It’s the same thing. It’s the same thing, Mike! | 你就会吹 你就会吹 迈克尔 |
| [47:48] | You’re managing a fund of, what, $555 million? | 你管理的基金有多少 5亿5千5百万？ |
| [47:53] | In six years, it’ll all be gone. | 六年内 交保费就赔光了 |
| [47:57] | On one bet. | 单单这一项 |
| [48:02] | The defaults will skyrocket. | 肯定会出现大批断供 |
| [48:04] | Yeah. Says you. | 也就你这么想 |
| [48:06] | How much is eligible for withdrawal before they do? | 在合约到期前 基金里有多少钱可以撤回？ |
| [48:08] | Say, in the next two quarters. | 就算半年之内吧 |
| [48:11] | If your investors panic. | 如果你的投资人恐慌了的话 |
| [48:16] | $302 million? | 3亿零2百万 |
| [48:19] | My God, Mike. | 不妙啊 迈克尔 |
| [48:26] | No one will pull out. That would be suicide. | 不会有人往外取钱的 那样损人不利己 |
| [48:28] | I mean, I’m down 17% for the year. | 今年虽然下跌了17% |
| [48:30] | But if they trust me, and they trust me, because… | 但相信我就行了 而且他们一直相信我 |
| [48:33] | No one trusts you! No one! | 没人相信你 没人 |
| [48:35] | I sent several emails to my investors | 我写了几封信给投资人了 |
| [48:38] | letting them know that the… | 让他们了解情况 |
| [48:48] | I’ve been very clear. | 我说得很清楚了 |
| [48:50] | People will withdraw their money. | 你就等着大家撤资吧 |
| [48:54] | Lawrence, that would be so stupid. I mean, the… | 为啥 谁会这么傻？ |
| [48:57] | If the fund’s capitals drop too much, | 如果我们基金的资本减少过多 |
| [49:01] | then the swaps contracts are voided. | 那么互换合同就会自动失效 |
| [49:04] | And then the banks get to keep all of the collateral. | 然后银行就会拿走所有钱 |
| [49:08] | – Wait a minute. Wait. – All of it. | – 等一下 等等 – 一个子儿都不剩 |
| [49:10] | The contracts are voided? | 合同会自动失效？ |
| [49:12] | The contracts are voided? | 合同会自动失效？ |
| [49:15] | Holy shit! | 狗屁的 |
| [49:17] | Oh, motherfucker! | 你这臭不要脸的 |
| [49:18] | Michael? | 迈克尔 |
| [49:20] | Give me my money back. | 把我的钱还我 |
| [49:25] | Michael, do you hear me? I want my money back. | 迈克尔 听见了吗？我要退回我的钱 |
| [49:31] | Give me my fucking money back… | 你他妈的把我的钱给我 |
| [49:35] | …you motherfucker. | 你这小兔崽子 |
| [49:37] | The market’s in an itsy-bitsy little gully right now. | 房产市场正处在一个小不丁点的低谷里 |
| [49:40] | It’s like everybody said, “Okay, that was crazy. | 好像大伙说”玩得太嗨了” |
| [49:43] | “Let’s just all calm down.” | “咱们稍微缓缓神” |
| [49:46] | I sold that house for $350, 000 the year it was built. | 那房子刚建成的时候 我35万卖了出去 |
| [49:50] | Two years later, $480, 000. | 两年以后 就值48万 |
| [49:52] | Then $585, 000 maybe 18 months ago. | 然后58万5 这是一年半以前的价格 |
| [49:56] | This couple bought it for $650, 000 last year. | 这对夫妻在去年花65万买了下来 |
| [49:59] | He’d let it go for that… | 现在只能按原价卖呗 |
| [50:01] | Hi, John. | 嘿 约翰 |
| [50:02] | No, no, no. | 不 不 不 |
| [50:04] | It will break his heart, but he’ll let it go. | 他肯定觉得不值 不过会放手的 |
| [50:06] | Why is he selling? | 那他为什么要卖房？ |
| [50:07] | Neither one’s working right now. | 夫妻俩现在都没工作 |
| [50:10] | Marlene, you’d say they’re motivated, right? | 马琳 你说他们急于出手是吧？ |
| [50:13] | As motivated as one can be in this neighborhood. | 和这片的人积极性差不多吧 |
| [50:16] | This house on the left, I would say they’re probably motivated. | 左边这房子 才是真正急于出手 |
| [50:19] | Wow, a lot of people seem very motivated. | 我说 急于出手的也太多了点 |
| [50:21] | Oh, it’s just the gully. | 房价小触底嘛 |
| [50:22] | That’s all. Just… | 仅此而已 就是 |
| [50:24] | Just nerves. | 大伙神经过敏 |
| [50:25] | So where do we stand? | 那… 我们把车停到哪儿 |
| [50:28] | I need to talk to my wife. | 我得和我老婆商量一下 |
| [50:31] | This market won’t last. | 再等 过了这村就没这店了 |
| [50:32] | Actually, could I talk to a mortgage broker? | 其实 能给我介绍个房贷经纪人吗？ |
| [50:34] | Anybody you recommend? Anybody you like. | 你推荐的 不错的 |
| [50:36] | Yes, yes, I have someone. Absolutely. | 有啊 是有个绝佳人选 |
| [50:38] | Yeah, bitch better like me. | 这小妞肯定喜欢我啊 |
| [50:39] | Sent her ass to Cabo. | 我帮她赚钱赚翻了 |
| [50:42] | So is Morgan Stanley recruiting us? Is that it? | 连摩根士丹利都等着要我们了？ |
| [50:45] | Oh, no. No. The bank owns our hedge fund, | 不是… 银行拥有我们的对冲基金 |
| [50:48] | but we’re not really part of it. | 但我们其实不归银行管 |
| [50:49] | We invest in financial service companies | 我们主要投资金融服务公司 |
| [50:52] | and we’re trying to understand the residential mortgage business. | 我们过来是想了解这里房贷行业的情况 |
| [50:55] | How many loans do you write each month? | 你每个月能办多少笔贷款 |
| [50:58] | – About 60. – Yeah. | – 大概60笔吧 – 对 |
| [51:00] | What was it four years ago? | 4年前呢？ |
| [51:02] | Ten… | 10笔… |
| [51:04] | Maybe 15. | 15笔的样子 |
| [51:05] | Yeah, I was a bartender. Now I own a boat. | 以前我是酒吧招待 现在我连船都有了 |
| [51:07] | You own a… | 你有 |
| [51:08] | So how many of these are adjustable-rate mortgages? | 这里面有多少是可调利率的房贷？ |
| [51:12] | – Well, most. – Oh, yeah. | – 嗯 绝大多数 – 哦 是的 |
| [51:13] | Yeah, I’d say about 90%. | 是 我觉得有90%左右 |
| [51:15] | The bonuses on those skyrocketed a few years ago. | 近几年这种房贷提成飙上天了 |
| [51:19] | Adjustable’s our bread and honey. | 我们全靠这个赚钱 |
| [51:20] | So do applicants ever get rejected? | 那房贷申请有被拒的时候吗 |
| [51:27] | Seriously? | 怎么可能 |
| [51:29] | Look, if they get rejected, I suck at my job. | 要是他们被拒 我就不称职了 |
| [51:31] | Even if they have no money? | 他们没钱也能贷到款？ |
| [51:33] | Well, my firm offers NINJA loans. | 我们公司有一种”忍者贷款” |
| [51:36] | – Okay. – “No Income, No Job.” | – 好吧 – 不需要收入和职业证明 |
| [51:39] | I just leave the income section blank if I want. | 收入一栏空着都可以 |
| [51:41] | Corporate doesn’t care. | 公司不在乎 |
| [51:42] | These people just want homes. And they go with the flow. | 大伙想要房 公司顺应民意呗 |
| [51:46] | – Good for you. – Your companies don’t verify? | – 你当然愿意 – 你们公司都不查验的吗 |
| [51:51] | If I write a loan on Friday afternoon, | 我星期五下午签了房贷合同 |
| [51:54] | a big bank will buy it by Monday lunch. | 大银行周一中午就会买走 |
| [51:57] | Yeah. Same here. | 见怪不怪 我们也一样 |
| [52:00] | – Could you hold on a second? – Yeah. | – 你们能等会吗？- 行啊 |
| [52:08] | I don’t get it. Why are they confessing? | 我搞不明白 为啥他们这么坦白 |
| [52:11] | They’re not confessing. | 他们不是在坦白… |
| [52:13] | They’re bragging. | 他们这是在吹牛 |
| [52:24] | Do people have any idea what they are buying? | 贷款的人真的知道这种贷款的风险吗？ |
| [52:29] | I focus on the immigrants, you know. | 我一般找移民 |
| [52:31] | Once they find out they’re getting a home, | 等他们还不起房贷睡大街了… |
| [52:33] | they sign where you tell them to sign. | 你让他们签什么都愿意 |
| [52:34] | Don’t ask questions. Don’t understand the rates. | 不会问问题 不理解利率是什么东西 |
| [52:36] | – Fucking idiots. – Yeah. | – 都是他妈的的弱智 – 对 |
| [52:38] | And you target immigrants, too? | 你也找移民下手吗？ |
| [52:39] | Well, their credit actually isn’t bad enough for him. | 移民的信用分对他来说还太好 |
| [52:44] | Look, I’m a yield guy. | 我不跟钱过不去 |
| [52:46] | Okay… | 好吧 |
| [52:49] | I make $2, 000 on a fixed-rate prime loan, right? | 一笔固定利率的良性房贷 我只赚两千 对吧？ |
| [52:52] | But I can make $10, 000 on a subprime adjustable. | 可做一笔可调利率的次级贷 我能赚一万 |
| [52:56] | Trust me, I’m not driving a 7 Series without strippers. | 说真的 没有脱衣舞女郎的帮忙 我也开不上宝马7系 |
| [52:59] | No one on the pole has good credit and they’re all cash rich. | 她们信用评分都不行 可是都超级有钱 |
| [53:02] | I think I read Warren Buffett say something like that. | 我好像听沃伦·巴菲特说过类似的话 |
| [53:05] | What? Who’s Warren Buffett? | 啥？沃伦·巴菲特是谁？ |
| [53:08] | Okay, so strippers. Like exotic dancers? | 你说的脱衣舞女郎就是露肉的那种？ |
| [53:11] | Yeah, yeah, yeah. | 对 对 对 |
| [53:12] | Nude, you know, topless. | 光屁股的 露着胸的 |
| [53:14] | – Strippers. – Yeah. | – 脱衣舞女郎 – 对 |
| [53:19] | Can you introduce us? | 能帮我们介绍个吗？ |
| [53:21] | Yes! Yes. | 当然行 没问题 |
| [53:25] | I always get option-pay adjustables. I’m a private contractor. | 我一直选还贷方式多的可调房贷 我毕竟是自由职业者 |
| [53:28] | What? I can’t hear you. I’m sorry. | 说什么呢？听不清 抱歉 |
| [53:30] | I always get option-pay adjustables. | 我一直选还贷方式多的那种可调房贷 |
| [53:32] | I’m a private contractor. I need flexibility. | 我自己干 需要点灵活性 |
| [53:34] | And you tell the mortgage company what you do? | 你怎么跟房贷公司说你的职业 |
| [53:37] | I write “therapist”. | 我写的是：治疗师 |
| [53:39] | – You can touch me. – Always? | – 你可以摸我 – 一直？ |
| [53:41] | Only in V.I.P. | 那只能在VIP房间 |
| [53:42] | No, no, no, you say you always do adjustables. | 不不不 误会了 你说你一直选可调利息房贷 |
| [53:45] | And you have more than one loan on a property? | 你一套房子不止一笔贷款吗？ |
| [53:47] | Everybody does. At least down here. | 大伙都这样 至少我们这儿这样 |
| [53:49] | I’m sorry, what? | 我没听明白 |
| [53:50] | Everybody does. At least down here. | 每个人都这样 至少我们这儿是 |
| [53:53] | That way you only put down, like, 5%. | 这样首付只要5% |
| [53:55] | Prices have leveled off, though, right? | 可房价现在不涨了 对吧？ |
| [53:57] | Yeah. There’s a gully. | 是啊 暂时不涨 |
| [53:59] | Would you mind not moving anymore? I’ll still pay you. | 你能不能别晃来晃去的？我照样付你钱 |
| [54:06] | Sorry. We’re not alone. | 抱歉 有人盯着 |
| [54:09] | Okay, look. If home prices don’t go up, | 你听我说… 如果房价不涨 |
| [54:12] | you are not going to be able to refinance. | 你就不能重新贷款了 |
| [54:14] | And you’ll be stuck paying whatever your monthly payment is | 你就陷到房贷里脱不开身 等利率优惠期过了 |
| [54:17] | once it jumps up after your teaser rate expires. | 月供涨到多少是多少 加上逾期的利滚利 |
| [54:21] | Your monthlies could go up 200%-300%. | 可能涨到200%到300% |
| [54:23] | James says I can always refinance. | 詹姆斯说我总可以重新贷款的 |
| [54:25] | Well, he’s a liar. | 那 他就是个骗子 |
| [54:27] | Actually, in this particular case, James probably is wrong. | 至少对这种情况 他很可能是错的 |
| [54:30] | 200 percent? On all my loans? | 200%？我所有房贷的？ |
| [54:34] | What do you mean “all” your loans? | 你”所有”房贷什么意思？ |
| [54:35] | We’re talking about two loans on one house, right? | 不就是一套房两笔贷款吗 |
| [54:38] | I have five houses. | 我有5套房 |
| [54:40] | And a condo. | 外加一套公寓房 |
| [54:44] | Hey, there’s a bubble. | 有泡沫 |
| [54:46] | How do you know? | 你怎么知道的？ |
| [54:47] | Trust me. Call Vennett, buy $50 million in swaps on the MBS. | 相信我 打电话给杰瑞德 买上5千万房贷证券的信用违约互换 |
| [54:50] | What do we got? Garibaldi IV, BBB. | 买哪个？加里波底4 3B评级 |
| [54:53] | Mark, are you sure? | 马克 你确定吗？ |
| [54:55] | Yeah. Yeah, it’s time to call bullshit. | 确定 这泡沫太扯淡了 |
| [54:57] | – Bullshit on what? – Every fucking thing. | – 哪些有泡沫？- 这儿他妈的全都是泡沫 |
| [55:24] | FrontPoint! FrontPoint! | 前点对冲基金 前点对冲基金 |
| [55:27] | Is this America’s angriest hedge fund? | 是美国最暴走的对冲基金吗？ |
| [55:29] | All right, listen. I got one last question for you. | 听好了 我还有最后一个问题问你 |
| [55:32] | How are you fucking us? | 你想怎么蹂躏我们？ |
| [55:36] | There’s a nicer way to say that, Vinnie. | 何必说的这么露骨呢… 文尼 |
| [55:38] | I’m serious. | 我没开玩笑 |
| [55:39] | We’ll buy your swaps, but only if you say how you’re fucking us. | 我们会买你的互换 但前提是你说清楚打算怎么蹂躏我们 |
| [55:43] | I’m not fucking you, Vinnie. I’m kissing you. | 我不想蹂躏你 文尼 我想要亲吻你 |
| [55:45] | I’m looking deep into your eyes as I make love to you, Vinnie. | 看着你的双眼 让你爽 |
| [55:48] | I’m handing you the deal of the century on a fucking platter. | 我正和盘托出本世纪最好的买卖给你 |
| [55:51] | What do I get out of it? Easy. | 我能得到什么好处？这还不简单 |
| [55:54] | I got a $20-million-a-month negative carry. | 我之前做的证券每月赔进去2千万 |
| [55:56] | I got bosses trying to pull the plug | 老板早就想要了我的命 |
| [55:58] | because they think I’m out of my fucking mind. | 认为我神经不正常了 |
| [56:00] | All right? | 明白吗？ |
| [56:01] | We make this trade, | 我们做成了这笔买卖 |
| [56:03] | those problems aren’t so big anymore. | 我之前的问题都不是事儿 |
| [56:05] | And sure, swaps are a dark market, so I set the price. | 当然了… 互换是黑市 怎么定价 |
| [56:09] | Whatever price I want. | 我说了算 |
| [56:10] | And when you come for the payday, | 等你收回投资的时候 |
| [56:12] | I’m gonna rip your eyes out, I’m gonna make a fortune. | 我肯定会让你大出血 从你那里大赚一笔 |
| [56:15] | But the good news is, Vinnie, you’re not gonna care | 但好消息是 你也不会在乎的 |
| [56:17] | because you’re gonna make so much fucking money. | 因为你赚的钱太多 你都没空管我 |
| [56:19] | That’s what I get out of it. | 这就是我能得的好处 |
| [56:21] | Want to know what you get out of it? | 想知道你能得到什么吗 |
| [56:22] | You get the ice cream, the hot fudge, the banana, and the nuts. | 你现在先拿到冰淇淋 热巧克力 香蕉和坚果配料 |
| [56:25] | Right now, I get the sprinkles, and, yeah, | 我现在能拿到装饰糖粒 |
| [56:27] | if this goes through, I get the cherry. | 如果这事儿最终能成 我能吃到顶上的樱桃 |
| [56:30] | But you get the sundae, Vinnie. | 但你能吃到圣代冰激凌 文尼 |
| [56:32] | You get the sundae. | 除了樱桃 剩下的全是你的 |
| [56:36] | All right, I buy that. Thank you. | 行 我信你 谢谢你解释 |
| [56:39] | So what do you say? | 那你拿个主意 |
| [56:42] | – You want me to make you a market? – Yeah. | – 想让我帮你坐庄吗？- 对 |
| [56:44] | We’ll take $50 million, Garibaldi IV, BBB. | 我们买5千万 加里波底4 3B评级 |
| [56:48] | Sharpen your pencils. I’ll get the paperwork ready. | 准备好签字笔吧 我来准备好文书 |
| [56:53] | Fuck you, too. | 妈的 |
| [56:57] | Yes! | 好 |
| [57:00] | That’s right. | 这就对了 |
| [57:03] | Oh, man. | 哦 天啊 |
| [57:05] | He has so many numbers, and I always forget | 他电话号码太多 我老忘了 |
| [57:10] | which one he prefers, because he’s very specific. | 应该打哪个电话 他明确和我说过 |
| [57:11] | Start with the first one. | 就先选第一个吧 |
| [57:13] | I don’t know if it’s the first one. | 不知道对不对 |
| [57:14] | Just try it. | 试试吧 |
| [57:15] | Okay. I… Okay. | 好吧 |
| [57:35] | – Ben Ricker. – Hey, Ben. It’s Jamie. | – 我是本·里克特 – 本 你好 我是杰米 |
| [57:39] | Jamie, you know you’re not supposed to use this line. | 杰米 我告诉过你不要打这个电话 |
| [57:43] | Told you. | 我就知道… |
| [57:46] | Okay, let’s try number two out of 14. | 好 试试这14个号码的第2个 |
| [58:00] | Ben Rickert. | 本·里克特 |
| [58:01] | Ben, why do you do that, man? I mean… | 本 你这不是自找麻烦吗？ |
| [58:03] | You’re a retired trader, okay? No one is listening to your calls. | 你都退休了好吧 没人监听你电话 |
| [58:06] | The NSA has a $52 billion budget and the ability | 国安局有520亿的预算 |
| [58:08] | to monitor tens of millions of calls a second. | 每秒能监听上千万个电话 |
| [58:09] | You think they’re not using it? | 你以为他们吃闲饭的？ |
| [58:11] | Hey, I promise I will refrain from saying | 那我保证不会在一句话里同时说 |
| [58:14] | “Ben Rickert” and “dirty bomb” in the same sent… | 你的名字和放射脏弹这词 |
| [58:18] | – Jesus fucking Christ. – I’m sorry, dude. | – 我的天 – 真受不了 |
| [58:22] | Ben Rickert. | 本·里克特 |
| [58:23] | Did you get a chance to look at what we sent you, Ben? | 你看到我们发给你的东西了吗 |
| [58:25] | It’s Charlie. I’m here, too. | 我是查理 我也在旁边 |
| [58:28] | Hi, Charlie. Yeah, I did. Hold on. | 查理 你好 我看了 稍等 |
| [58:37] | – Ben, you still there? – Yeah. | – 本 你还听着吗 – 嗯 |
| [58:40] | I’ll be honest, gentlemen. | 我就直说吧 |
| [58:42] | It scared the shit out of me. | 你俩把我吓坏了 |
| [58:44] | But that’s a good thing, right? | 那说明这是真东西对吧？ |
| [58:45] | That means this Vennett guy’s not wrong. | 这叫杰瑞德的家伙没胡说 |
| [58:49] | No, he’s not. | 是没有 |
| [58:53] | Cool. | 太好了 |
| [58:54] | Tell me more about these CDOs. | 你们对CDO还了解什么 |
| [58:55] | Yeah, yeah. Okay, so, you know, Vennett mentions the CDOs, | 好的 好的 好的 杰瑞德只是提到了CDO |
| [58:59] | but actually, we took a look | 我俩实际看了 |
| [59:01] | and they’re way worse than even he realizes. | 情况比他想的还糟 |
| [59:03] | These things don’t make any sense! | 数据离谱的像假的一样 |
| [59:04] | We can’t even model them. | 连预测模型都用不了 |
| [59:05] | These are 100 times bigger than the MBS. | 打包的CDO比房贷证券规模还要大100倍 |
| [59:08] | And 90% AAA-rated. | 然后有90%还是3A评级？ |
| [59:10] | – Yes! Exactly! – Over 90%. | – 是啊 – 超过90% |
| [59:12] | It’s incredible. | 真不敢相信 |
| [59:13] | I took a good hard look at the CDOs you want to short. | 我仔细看了你打算做空的CDO |
| [59:17] | They’re brilliant. Worthless. Total crap. | 天才的想法 CDO就是包装精美的屎 |
| [59:20] | Jamie. Very good. | 杰米 厉害厉害 |
| [59:22] | What can I say? I’m good at finding shit. | 怎么说呢… 我找屎还挺擅长的 |
| [59:26] | So, Ben, we shorted the BB’s and the BBB’s, | 本 我们打算做空2B和3B级别的 |
| [59:29] | and the risk is relatively low. | 风险也相对小一些 |
| [59:31] | – Payoff is, like, 25-to-1. – Yeah. | 回报率差不多是25倍 |
| [59:36] | Okay, so, why are you calling me? I don’t do this anymore. | 那你们找我干啥？我洗手不干了 |
| [59:38] | Look, Ben? | 本 我们… |
| [59:40] | We need you to help us get the ISDA. | 我们需要你帮忙搞定ISDA协议 |
| [59:44] | If we get a hunting license, we can short this crap. | 有了持枪证 我们就能开干了 |
| [59:48] | And we know you hate Wall Street. We’re not asking you to do the trading. | 我们知道你恨华尔街 所以不会让你去做交易 |
| [59:50] | We’re simply asking you to help us get a seat | 只是 请求你… 帮助我们 |
| [59:54] | at the fucking table. | 能坐到”大亨”席位就行 |
| [59:57] | It’s a pretty ugly table, guys. | 那种地方可是乌烟瘴气的很 |
| [59:59] | Look, Ben, the system fucked up in a big, big way here, okay? | 本 整个系统已经出大乱子了 是不是？ |
| [1:00:04] | And somehow we know before anyone else. | 我们比所有人都先得到了消息 |
| [1:00:10] | You know? This is a once-in-a-lifetime deal. | 知道吗 这是绝对是千载难逢的机会 |
| [1:00:15] | I’m thinking. | 我在考虑 |
| [1:00:21] | Okay. I’ll call Deutsche Bank. | 好 我打电话给德意志银行 |
| [1:00:23] | Thank you, Ben. Thank you. | 太感谢你了 本 |
| [1:00:26] | And Bear. What about Bear? They have some reprehensible product. | 还有贝尔斯登公司 那里也有些把柄可以抓 |
| [1:00:30] | Okay. Bear will trade with anybody. | 好 贝尔肯定来者不拒 |
| [1:01:20] | All right. I’ll see if I can push it through. | 好了 我看看能不能把材料递上去 |
| [1:01:23] | Thank you, Noah. And thank Jared for us. | 谢谢 诺亚 帮我们谢谢杰瑞德 |
| [1:01:27] | – Couldn’t we go inside? – Yeah, me, too. | – 我们不能进去？- 对的 我也是 |
| [1:02:13] | Hi. It’s Mark. I need to talk to Vinnie right now. | 是我 马克 现在就把电话转给文尼 |
| [1:02:16] | We’re just asking you to explain to us | 我们就是想让你们解释清楚 |
| [1:02:19] | just how it is that you are fucking us, because what we are seeing… | 我们看到的和你说的完全不同 |
| [1:02:26] | Morgan Stanley building, fast. | 快去摩根士丹利大厦 |
| [1:02:28] | Are we hooked up to the same computer screen? | 我们屏幕上显示的东西难道不一样吗？ |
| [1:02:31] | It doesn’t make any sense. | 这简直是胡说八道 |
| [1:02:36] | Vinnie, you there? | 文尼 能听见吧？ |
| [1:02:37] | – Mark, you there? – Yeah, did you hear? | – 马克 我能听见 – 你听说了吗？ |
| [1:02:40] | Mortgage defaults have gone through the roof. | 房贷断供已经破记录了 |
| [1:02:41] | Is anybody jumping off of buildings yet? | 你那里房顶有人跳楼吗？ |
| [1:02:43] | Why would they? Subprime mortgage bond prices are up. | 为什么要跳？次级贷证券可是在上涨 |
| [1:02:45] | What? | 怎么可能？ |
| [1:02:46] | Vennett wants $1.9 million more in collateral by close. | 杰瑞德让我们今天再投入190万的抵押 |
| [1:02:50] | Vennett’s asking us to post collateral. | 杰瑞德让我们追加抵押 |
| [1:02:51] | What the hell is going on? | 怎么会这样？ |
| [1:02:53] | We don’t know, but Deutsche’s on the phone demanding payment. | 不知道 但德意志银行电话一直在催 |
| [1:02:55] | Call Vennett. Call that little shit. | 把杰瑞德给我叫过来 这小畜生 |
| [1:02:57] | Call Vennett. Tell him to get his ass down here. | 给杰瑞德打电话 让他快点滚过来 |
| [1:02:59] | So subprime loans go bad, | 次级房贷断供越来越多 |
| [1:03:00] | but subprime bonds, which are made up of subprime loans, are more valuable? | 但是它们组成的房贷证券却更值钱了？ |
| [1:03:04] | I know. They want another $1.9 million by market close. | 我也奇怪 他们要今天必须交齐1千9百万 |
| [1:03:06] | What about the ratings agencies? Moody’s, S&P… | 信用评级机构呢？穆迪公司？标准普尔？ |
| [1:03:09] | Are they downgrading the CDOs and mortgage bonds? | 他们调低了CDO或房贷证券的评级吗 |
| [1:03:11] | Where are the ratings agencies at? | 现在评级什么样？ |
| [1:03:12] | – They’re the fucking same. – No, they’re all still AAA. | – 还是原封不动 – 没变 还都是3A评级 |
| [1:03:15] | What the hell? Are you fucking kidding me? | 见鬼了 他妈的在逗我？ |
| [1:03:18] | Those fuckers! Those motherfuckers! | 这帮混蛋 不要脸的 |
| [1:03:20] | They go public, and all they care about is their bottom line and their shit. | 他们对外评级以后就钻到钱眼里去了 |
| [1:03:23] | Hey, Mark, that’s not all. | 嘿 马克 还有事… |
| [1:03:25] | The Morgan Stanley risk guys are here. | 摩根士丹利风险部的过来了 |
| [1:03:26] | They called in Kathy Tao. | 他们找了你老板 |
| [1:03:28] | They’re trying to convince her to make us sell our swaps. | 想说服她卖掉我们的互换 |
| [1:03:30] | Apparently, tying up six years of insurance payments | 他们觉得这些保费肯定是被套牢的买卖 |
| [1:03:32] | in hopes of a housing Armageddon is not prudent in vesting.+ | 等着房地产崩溃是不明智的投资 |
| [1:03:35] | What did Kathy say? | 老板怎么说？ |
| [1:03:37] | Nothing yet. She keeps asking if this is one of your crusades. | 没表态 她一直问这是不是你的核心投资 |
| [1:03:40] | Okay, I want you to walk back in there | 明白了 你走过去 |
| [1:03:42] | and very calmly, very politely, tell the risk assessors to fuck off. | 语气平静 非常礼貌的 让这些风险评估师都他妈滚蛋 |
| [1:03:46] | And then meet me over at Standard & Poor’s. | 然后过来和我在标准普尔碰头 |
| [1:03:48] | We’re gonna talk to Georgia. | 我们要找乔治亚聊聊 |
| [1:03:50] | All right. Okay. | 知道了 好的 |
| [1:03:51] | Get that fuck Jared Vennett in this office. | 把杰瑞德那混蛋叫过来 |
| [1:03:53] | I’m gonna bash his fucking head in. | 看我不把他脑浆打出来 |
| [1:04:00] | Gentlemen? | 各位 |
| [1:04:01] | I spoke with Mark Baum. He says to fuck off. | 我刚和马克·鲍姆谈过了 他的原话：都他妈滚蛋 |
| [1:04:13] | 百老汇大道25号 标准普尔评级机构 | |
| [1:04:18] | I can’t see a damn thing. | 我眼睛不好使啊 |
| [1:04:22] | My eye doctor’s always busy. | 我选的眼科医生总是特别忙 |
| [1:04:24] | I end up taking any appointment they’ll give me, | 只要能预约上我就得去 |
| [1:04:26] | and then the whole morning gets shot to hell! | 今天上午就这么废了 |
| [1:04:30] | So… | 那么… |
| [1:04:32] | All righty, | 好咧 |
| [1:04:34] | FrontPoint Partners, | 前点基金的朋友们 |
| [1:04:37] | how can Standard & Poor’s help you? | 标准普尔有什么能帮到你们的吗 |
| [1:04:39] | Well, we don’t understand why | 我们想弄明白 为什么 |
| [1:04:40] | the ratings agencies haven’t downgraded subprime bonds | 评级机构 不下调次级贷证券的评级 |
| [1:04:43] | since the underlying loans are clearly deteriorating. | 证券包含的房贷 很明显情况在恶化 |
| [1:04:46] | Well, the delinquency rates do have people worried, | 断供率是让人们担心了 |
| [1:04:49] | but they’re actually within our models. | 不过数字波动还在我们的合理模型之内 |
| [1:04:51] | – So. .. – Says you. | – 那… – 你先说 |
| [1:04:54] | …you’re convinced the underlying mortgages in these bonds are solid loans. | 你确信这些证券里的房贷是可靠的？ |
| [1:04:59] | – That is our opinion yeah. – Oh crack the tape! | – 这是我们的观点 – 打开天窗说亮话 |
| [1:05:01] | Have you looked at the loan-level data? | 你看过底层房贷的数据吗？ |
| [1:05:03] | – What do you think we do here all day? – I mean, they’re giving | – 你认为我们工作是什么？- 现在只要 |
| [1:05:04] | – these loans to anybody with a credit score and a pulse. – Excuse me, sir. | – 有信用分 就肯定能拿到房贷 – 打断一下 |
| [1:05:06] | What do you think we do here all day? | 你认为我们工作是什么？ |
| [1:05:09] | We’re not sure. That’s why we’re here. | 我不明白 要不我们也不会过来 |
| [1:05:10] | Here’s what I don’t understand… | 我不明白 |
| [1:05:11] | We check, recheck, recheck again. | 我们再三反覆核对过了 |
| [1:05:13] | If these mortgage bonds are so stable… | 如果这些房贷证券这么稳定可靠 |
| [1:05:14] | Perhaps you could check your friend. | 你先检查一下你同事吧 |
| [1:05:16] | …have you ever refused to rate… | 你有没有拒绝… |
| [1:05:18] | Ma’am, that’s delusional. | 做你的梦吧 |
| [1:05:20] | We stand behind them. | 我们有理由这么评级 |
| [1:05:21] | Georgia, have you ever refused to rate | 你有没有给过这里任何一个证券 |
| [1:05:23] | any of these bonds upper tranches AAA? | 评级低于3A级别？ |
| [1:05:26] | Can we see the paperwork on those deals? | 我们能看看对应的材料吗？ |
| [1:05:28] | I am under no obligation to share that information | 我没有义务给你们看内部信息 |
| [1:05:30] | with you, whoever you might be. | 不管你是谁 |
| [1:05:31] | Just answer the question, Georgia. | 你就回答我的简单问题 乔治 |
| [1:05:33] | Can you name one time in the past year | 给我们个去年低于3A评级的名字 |
| [1:05:35] | where you checked the tape | 你去看了实际数据 |
| [1:05:36] | and you didn’t give the banks the AAA percentage they wanted? | 最后也没有给银行想要的3A评级 |
| [1:05:43] | If we don’t give them the ratings, | 如果我们不这么评 |
| [1:05:44] | they’ll go to Moody’s, right down the block. | 人家就去隔壁的穆迪评级了 |
| [1:05:47] | If we don’t work with them, they will go to our competitors. | 我们不配合 那我们的对头就会抢走客户的钱 |
| [1:05:51] | Not our fault. Simply the way the world works. | 这地方就这么运转 我们有什么办法 |
| [1:05:58] | – Holy shit. – Yes, now you see. | – 我靠 – 明白了吧 |
| [1:06:02] | And I never said that. | 我什么都没说过 |
| [1:06:04] | They’re selling ratings for fees. | 你们就是卖信用评级的赚钱机构 |
| [1:06:06] | A ratings shop. | 信用商店 |
| [1:06:07] | You can afford to make less. Make less. | 你们不赚这么多钱也能维持运行啊 |
| [1:06:10] | Nobody said that. | 没人这么要求我 |
| [1:06:12] | And it is not my decision. I have a boss. | 这不是我能做主的 我有老板管着 |
| [1:06:15] | – Are you kidding me? – No, I am not “kidding you”. | – 你在逗我？- 我没空跟你开玩笑 |
| [1:06:20] | Is that the angle you’re taking? | 这就是你的立场？ |
| [1:06:21] | So, now, anyone who has a boss can’t be held responsible | 这意思是 只要有老板的人 都不用为 |
| [1:06:25] | for doing shitty and illegal things. | 任何图财害命的勾当负责了 |
| [1:06:26] | What are you, four? | 你当自己四岁小孩吗 |
| [1:06:28] | No, lam not four, Mr. Baum. I am not, no. | 我不是四岁孩子 鲍姆先生 不是不负责 |
| [1:06:32] | And I wonder what your incentives might be. | 我倒奇怪 你们来找我的动机是什么 |
| [1:06:36] | Is it maybe in your best interest to have the ratings change? Is it, perhaps? | 是不是评级变了 对你们有好处啊？ |
| [1:06:42] | How many credit default swaps do you own? | 信用违约互换你们买了多少？ |
| [1:06:47] | It doesn’t make me wrong. | 立场和对错是两回事 |
| [1:06:49] | No. | 错 |
| [1:06:50] | It just makes you a hypocrite. | 你俩还装什么好人 |
| [1:07:33] | Fuck! | 妈的 |
| [1:07:35] | Mortgage delinquencies went up | 房贷断供 |
| [1:07:36] | and the CDOs got more valuable. Unbelievable. | 房贷证券却更值钱了 真见鬼了 |
| [1:07:38] | – Unbelievable. – We know. It’s completely backwards. | – 难以置信 – 是啊 走势太反常了 |
| [1:07:40] | I just called an old friend at Bear. | 我给贝尔斯登公司的朋友打电话 |
| [1:07:42] | He didn’t even know what a CDO is. | 他连CDO是啥都不知道 |
| [1:07:44] | Yeah, I just had to wire Bear and Deutsche $70, 000. | 是啊 我刚给贝尔和德意志汇过去7万块钱 |
| [1:07:48] | It’s like two plus two equals | 这感觉 就好像现在二加二等于… |
| [1:07:51] | fish. | 屎 |
| [1:07:52] | It’s rigged. | 有黑幕 |
| [1:07:53] | We bought into a rigged game. | 我们被带到沟里面了 |
| [1:07:55] | We’re gonna lose everything. | 要是钱赔光了 |
| [1:07:57] | I’m gonna have to move back in with my mom. | 我就得回去家里和老妈在一起 |
| [1:08:00] | Can’t do that. | 我可不想 |
| [1:08:01] | All right. Well, I got a colonic appointment. | 好了 我等会还有事儿忙 |
| [1:08:04] | Wait a minute. Hold on, Ben. | 等一下 别挂电话 本 |
| [1:08:05] | Ben, look. | 本 听我说 |
| [1:08:07] | Either the banks are cluelessand they don’t know how to value these CDOs, | 有可能银行完全不懂CDO是什么东西 或者 |
| [1:08:12] | or they’re such crooks that the CDOs are worth shit | 或者他们想用沙子把屎盖起来 |
| [1:08:17] | and they’re hiding it. | 藏着掖着 |
| [1:08:21] | I think we should buy more swaps. | 我觉得我们应该再买更多 |
| [1:08:23] | What? | 你说啥？ |
| [1:08:24] | Suck it up and pay up, fellas. We made a deal. | 别废话 合同上白纸黑字写得清楚 |
| [1:08:26] | No way! No! | 不行 不行 |
| [1:08:28] | Are you fucking kidding me? | 你小子玩我们吗 |
| [1:08:30] | Are you serious? You think this is a game? | 还有脸过来 还想着来玩这个游戏？ |
| [1:08:32] | – No.No.No.No.No. – Yeah. Yeah. | – 不 不 不 – 行 行 |
| [1:08:41] | No! No! No! | 不行不行不行 |
| [1:08:43] | No, seriously, a colonic once a year. | 建议你每年灌一次肠来排排毒 |
| [1:08:45] | Ass! | 混蛋 |
| [1:08:46] | And you got a matching little butler boy, you buttfuck! | 你就是个跑腿的 他妈的 |
| [1:08:53] | – Are you done? – I think so, yeah. | – 都发泄完了？- 完了… |
| [1:08:55] | God! I pulled a muscle in my back from yelling. | 刚才大声骂 我都闪腰了 |
| [1:09:00] | Mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up. | 房贷断供率一直在涨 |
| [1:09:04] | Yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds. | 你给我们房贷证券的报价还更高了 |
| [1:09:08] | Please explain that to me. There’s no way that makes sense. | 你给我解释清楚 这显然不科学啊 |
| [1:09:10] | There’s no way you’re marking these swaps appropriately. | 你的量化方法绝对有问题 |
| [1:09:13] | Why shouldn’t we back out of this trade right now? | 有什么理由让我们继续干？ |
| [1:09:18] | Didn’t I say when we made this deal | 我说没说过 咱们谈成买卖的时候 |
| [1:09:19] | that the ratings agencies, the SEC | 评级机构 美国证券交易委员会 |
| [1:09:21] | and the big banks were clueless? Didn’t I say that? | 大银行们全都不懂？说没说过？ |
| [1:09:24] | – Yes. – Didn’t I say it? | – 说过没有？- 有说过的 |
| [1:09:25] | Yes, you did. You did. | 有说过的 |
| [1:09:27] | Shut up. | 闭嘴 |
| [1:09:29] | Now their foot’s on fire, | 他们脚都开始着火了 |
| [1:09:30] | they think their steak is done, and you’re surprised? | 心里却想着 牛排应该烤熟了 你还觉得奇怪？ |
| [1:09:32] | That’s not stupidity. That’s fraud. | 这不是愚蠢 这是诈骗 |
| [1:09:35] | Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal, | 你跟我说清楚愚蠢和违法的区别 |
| [1:09:37] | and I’ll have my wife’s brother arrested. | 我就去把我小舅子抓起来 |
| [1:09:40] | That was funny. | 挺好笑的 |
| [1:09:42] | I guess you just don’t realize how clueless the system really is. | 你们还是没弄明白整个系统有多蠢 |
| [1:09:45] | Yes, there’s some shady shit going down, | 我承认 是有一些见不得人的勾当 |
| [1:09:48] | but trust me, it’s fueled by stupidity! | 但相信我 这是愚蠢驱使的 |
| [1:09:52] | Look at yourselves. | 看看你们这些人 |
| [1:09:54] | You know, you pass yourself off as cynical people | 都觉得自己是敢于怀疑的人 |
| [1:09:58] | but you still have some faith in the system, don’t you? | 可你们还对这帮青天大老爷抱有希望？ |
| [1:10:00] | I don’t. | 我是不抱 |
| [1:10:02] | Well, except for Vinnie. And who gives a shit? | 文尼是明白人 谁在乎？ |
| [1:10:05] | – No way! – Look… | – 不行 – 听我说 |
| [1:10:07] | Either we’re right or we’re wrong in a giant, giant way. | 要么我们对 要么我们错得离谱 |
| [1:10:10] | And if we’re wrong, then we got to find someone to help us get out of this trade. | 如果真错了 得找高人给我们点醒才行 |
| [1:10:14] | I’m not feeling remotely confident that we’re right. | 我现在是一点都不觉得我们占理 |
| [1:10:16] | And if we’re wrong, who’s gonna tell us? | 万一咱们错了 谁来告诉我们？ |
| [1:10:20] | Who understands this stuff? It makes no sense! | 有谁懂？没人懂 |
| [1:10:26] | I think we need to go to Vegas. | 我们应该去拉斯维加斯 |
| [1:10:28] | – What’s in Vegas? – Vegas? | – 那儿有什么？- 去哪儿干啥 |
| [1:10:30] | What the hell’s in Las Vegas? | 拉斯维加斯又能有什么东西？ |
| [1:10:33] | The American Securitization Forum is there next week. | 下周那里召开美国证券化论坛年会 |
| [1:10:36] | Every bond and CDO salesman, subprime lender | 每个证券 CDO 次级贷 |
| [1:10:39] | and swap trader is gonna be there. | 倒卖交换的交易员都会去 |
| [1:10:41] | I’m telling you, your bet is against dumb money. | 我这么说 你挣的是他们手里的钱 |
| [1:10:44] | It’s about time you find out just how dumb that money really is. | 是时候去看看人傻钱多是怎么回事了 |
| [1:10:47] | God, I hate Vegas. | 我真不喜欢拉斯维加斯 |
| [1:10:48] | I hear the food has gotten really good in Vegas. | 听说吃的东西特别好 |
| [1:10:49] | They have a Nobu now. | 那里也有松久寿司店了 |
| [1:10:51] | Would you fucking stop it? | 你能不惦记着吃吗 |
| [1:10:53] | 美国证券化论坛 拉斯维加斯 | |
| [1:11:39] | – Any sense? – And if a bond is “rich” it is… | – 什么意思？- 证券”贵”的意思是… |
| [1:11:42] | – I don’t know, loaded with assets? -“Rich” just means overpriced. | – 我不知道 资产说明什么 – 只说明证券定价过高 |
| [1:11:45] | I can’t sleep on planes, so I did my homework. | 飞机上睡不着我就自己准备了一下 |
| [1:11:47] | Okay, let’s focus. What’s our goal? | 咱们集中精神 我们是为了什么来的？ |
| [1:11:50] | To figure out if this is a deal of a lifetime | 搞清楚这买卖是千载难逢的机会 |
| [1:11:52] | or if everyone here knows something we don’t | 还是别人比我们懂得都多 |
| [1:11:54] | and we’re gonna get royally screwed. | 咱们回头会亏大发了 |
| [1:11:56] | Right. Remember that when you meet with the guys from Bear. | 和贝尔公司的人接触的时候 注意你们的目的 |
| [1:11:59] | I set you up with a face-to-face. | 我给你们安排见面机会 |
| [1:12:01] | – Awesome. – Where is that? | – 好的 – 地方在哪？ |
| [1:12:02] | Holy shit. Five years ago, Securitization was a loser convention. | 我的天 5年前这年会还是穷鬼聚会 |
| [1:12:06] | 100, maybe 200 people would show. | 也就有100到200人出席 |
| [1:12:09] | $500 billion a year later, you get this. | 产业每年五千亿的发展之后 就变成这样了 |
| [1:12:11] | There’s a lot of smug-looking people in here, huh? | 这里自带装逼表情的人还真多 |
| [1:12:13] | It’s like someone hit a pifiata filled with white people who suck at golf. | 好像暴发户白人都跑来了 |
| [1:12:16] | I mean, who are all these clowns? | 都从哪儿冒出来的？ |
| [1:12:18] | Come on. I think it looks fun. | 别抱怨了 肯定很好玩 |
| [1:12:19] | Certainly. Vennett says these are the people we’re betting against. | 查理 杰瑞德说咱们赚的是这些人的钱 |
| [1:12:23] | – Yeah, here we go. Here we go. – There he is. | – 咱们过去 – 他在那里 |
| [1:12:25] | Chris, on my left. Chris, on my left. | 克里斯 到我左边去 别挡道 |
| [1:12:27] | Gentlemen. | 大家好 |
| [1:12:28] | When do we get a chance to face time with some of these lovely folks? | 什么时候能见到你说的那些爱心天使 |
| [1:12:32] | Chris, give him the keycards. | 克里斯 把门卡发给他 |
| [1:12:33] | Do you even know which keycards you’re giving out? | 你还没搞清楚你要发的哪张门卡 |
| [1:12:35] | – You’re just giving them out? – Thank you. | – 就把门卡都发他们了？- 谢谢 |
| [1:12:36] | First of all, how was your travel? How are you? Uneventful? | 先生们路上还顺利吗？没什么事儿 |
| [1:12:38] | – Uneventful. – Okay. | – 没事 – 好吧 |
| [1:12:40] | I’ve been here for six hours. I’ve already been to the gym, | 我来了6小时了 我已经锻炼完 |
| [1:12:42] | I had two poached eggs | 吃了两个荷包蛋 |
| [1:12:43] | and I played blackjack with Harry Dean Stanton. | 还和演员哈利·戴恩·斯坦通一起打牌 |
| [1:12:45] | Thank you for your diary. | 你记日记还真清楚 |
| [1:12:47] | Face time. I’d like some face time. | 我想找人见面聊 |
| [1:12:48] | Just remember. We’re here to gather information. | 提醒你们记住 我们是来收集信息的 |
| [1:12:50] | We’re gathering information, okay? | 我们是收集信息 知道不？ |
| [1:12:51] | We’re not advertising our short position. All right? | 不要打草惊蛇 好吗？ |
| [1:12:54] | We don’t want to spook everybody. Can you do that? | 别吓到大伙儿 行不行？ |
| [1:12:55] | I know you got a big mouth, you like to run it. | 你说话太直 还老是不停嘴 |
| [1:12:57] | Can you just keep it shut for a few days? | 这几天能不能收敛一点？ |
| [1:12:59] | Okay. Okay. | 好吧 好吧 |
| [1:13:00] | Yeah, don’t worry. We’ll play nice. | 别担心 我们会好好套话的 |
| [1:13:02] | Ladies and gentlemen. | 女士们先生们 |
| [1:13:04] | Business is good. | 商业形势大好 |
| [1:13:06] | Profits are strong | 利润也很高 |
| [1:13:07] | and the mortgage continues to be the bedrock | 房贷还坚持着经济的 |
| [1:13:10] | on which this economy is built. | 中流砥柱作用 |
| [1:13:17] | And, yes, we had to take some losses | 对 去年我们 |
| [1:13:19] | in our subprime department last year, but those losses | 在次级贷市场有些损失 不过这些损失 |
| [1:13:22] | will be contained at only 5%. | 预计也就最多5% |
| [1:13:25] | Now, in our residential sector… | 接下来说 我们住宅业务板块的表现 |
| [1:13:27] | Mark, it’s not a Q and A. | 马克 这不是提问环节 |
| [1:13:29] | …our rollout of those variable rate packages | 我们推出的可调利率房贷 |
| [1:13:30] | were gobbled up by the consumers! | 被一抢而空 |
| [1:13:32] | I have a question, please. | 我有个问题 |
| [1:13:37] | Sir, the Q and A is after my statements. | 先生 本来提问环节是在我陈述之后 |
| [1:13:39] | But you know what? You seem anxious. How can I help you? | 但看你这么着急 需要我回答什么？ |
| [1:13:42] | – Thank you. How are you? – Fine, thank you. | – 现在就问吧 你好啊 – 你好 谢谢 |
| [1:13:44] | Would you say that it is a possibility | 你觉得… 有没有这个可能性 |
| [1:13:47] | or a probability that subprime losses stop at 5%? | 或者说必然性次级贷的损失最多升到5%封顶？ |
| [1:13:52] | Thank you. | 谢谢 |
| [1:13:53] | I would say it is a very strong probability, indeed. | 我觉得这简直是必然的 是的 |
| [1:13:58] | So back to the residential sector. | 再回到住宅部分 |
| [1:14:01] | When we rolled out the new variable rates package… | 我们推出可调利率… |
| [1:14:03] | Excuse me. | 我还没问完 |
| [1:14:07] | Yes, sir. | 这位先生 |
| [1:14:08] | Zero! Zero! | 零 零 |
| [1:14:12] | There is a 0% chance | 可能性为零 |
| [1:14:15] | that your subprime losses will stop at 5%. | 次级贷止损到5%的可能性为 |
| [1:14:19] | Zero. | 零 |
| [1:14:20] | Excuse me. | 抱歉 |
| [1:14:21] | I have to take this. | 我得接这个电话了 |
| [1:14:22] | He must be from Bank of America. | 你一定来自眼红我们的美国银行吧 |
| [1:14:26] | No, I’m not doing anything right now. | 我现在什么都没干 |
| [1:14:29] | As I was saying, our residential department… | 我正说到住宅部分 |
| [1:14:31] | How are the kids? | 孩子们都还好吗 |
| [1:14:32] | …consumers reacted to our packages… | 客户对我们的房贷产品反响… |
| [1:14:34] | Mark Baum really did that. | 马克真的这么做了 |
| [1:14:36] | When we were in Vegas, he did that. | 他来拉斯维加斯真敢这么做 |
| [1:14:37] | He said that, he took the call. | 敢这么说 还接电话走人了 |
| [1:14:40] | Now you see what I had to deal with? | 明白我有多费心了吗？ |
| [1:14:55] | Yeah, the Beretta… Meh. | 伯莱塔手枪 呃 |
| [1:14:58] | But this Uzi is fucking awesome! | 这乌兹微冲真是爽啊 |
| [1:15:00] | I need this CDO machine to run for another two years. | 只要让CDO再转上两年 |
| [1:15:03] | And then I’m rich as fuck and I got my house in Aspen. | 我就能富的流油 在滑雪胜地买房了 |
| [1:15:06] | But do you have any concerns about the performance of the underlying securitizations? | 你对证券化的资产表现不担心吗 |
| [1:15:11] | It’s easy to see that delinquencies | 违约的消息一直有 |
| [1:15:13] | and default rates are on the rise right now. | 断供率又在增长了 |
| [1:15:16] | Could you please stop being such a buzzkill, dude? | 你俩怎么老泼冷水 有意思吗 |
| [1:15:18] | We didn’t bring you out here to talk about work, bro. | 带你们来放松 不是再来聊工作的 老兄 |
| [1:15:21] | Why did you bring us out here? | 你为什么带我们过来 |
| [1:15:22] | Because we need to be able to expense the ammo to a client. | 因为我们必须让客户给弹药买单 |
| [1:15:26] | I’m gonna go shoot some terrorists. Watch how it’s done, boys! | 来继续射击恐怖分子吧 你们看着点 |
| [1:15:29] | – These guys are morons. – Fucking tool. | – 这是一群白痴 – 他妈的什么东西 |
| [1:15:32] | These guys are morons. | 真是个棒槌 |
| [1:15:34] | – Fuck, yes! Boom! – Yeah, man! | – 真他妈爽 炸啊 – 爽啊 |
| [1:15:37] | We need to be buying up every swap we can get our hands on here. | 我们所有余钱都应该买互换 |
| [1:15:39] | Just hold on, okay? Hold on. | 先别急 别急 |
| [1:15:42] | My brother’s ex-girlfriend works for the SEC. | 我哥哥的前女友在证券交易委员会工作 |
| [1:15:44] | She just told me she’s in town, okay? | 她说她也在城里 我去聊聊 |
| [1:15:46] | So, if we’re missing something, maybe she can tell me. | 如果有些内幕消息我们不知道 |
| [1:15:48] | You know, give me some insight. | 她是最有可能透露给我们的人 |
| [1:15:50] | In the meantime, you go to the main floor | 你这边先去一楼 |
| [1:15:52] | and price some swaps. | 再买点互换 |
| [1:15:54] | Well, actually, we’re about to invest in housing bonds, and… | 有个事儿 我们想要投资房贷证券 |
| [1:15:58] | I was wondering if the SEC is worried about them at all. | 我想问问证券交易委员会的态度 |
| [1:16:01] | I know you’re not allowed to tell me specifics, but just generally. | 我知道你不能透露具体内容 但你可以说说大概态度 |
| [1:16:04] | We don’t investigate mortgage bonds. | 我们不去调查房产证券 |
| [1:16:06] | Truth is, since we got our budget cut, we don’t investigate much. | 实际上 我们预算减了以后 就不怎么调查了 |
| [1:16:11] | – Then why are you here? I thought… – I’m not here for the SEC. | – 那你开会不是来调查的吗？- 我又不是以证交会员工身份过来的 |
| [1:16:15] | I’m here on my own dime. | 我自己花钱来的 |
| [1:16:17] | I’m floating my resume to some big banks. | 正给各大银行投简历呢 |
| [1:16:20] | How’s your brother, by the way? | 你哥还好吗？ |
| [1:16:22] | How are you floating your resume to big banks? | 你怎么能把简历递给大银行呢？ |
| [1:16:24] | I mean, you’re supposed to be the ones, you know, policing the big banks. | 你不是应该监管大银行吗？ |
| [1:16:27] | Grow up, Jamie. | 你几岁了 杰米 |
| [1:16:29] | There must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution | 肯定有法律规定你们不能… |
| [1:16:32] | right after you’ve been working in financial regulation, right? | 马上从监管跳到被监管的地方 |
| [1:16:36] | No. No. | 没有没有啊 |
| [1:16:39] | Hey! Dougie! | 嘿 道奇 |
| [1:16:42] | Hey! Come over here. What are you doing at Caesars? | 快过来 你怎么也来凯撒宫了 |
| [1:16:45] | He’s at Goldman. | 他在高盛工作 |
| [1:16:47] | See you. | 回头见 |
| [1:16:48] | We can do BBB-level swaps at 500 basis points. Maybe. | 我们应该能做5%的3B评分互换 |
| [1:16:54] | You’re pricing the swaps like the bond is gonna collapse | 你们互换价格这么高 好像证券要跌破价一样 |
| [1:16:57] | even though the bond value’s going up? Really? | 虽然现在证券价格还在上升？你确定吗 |
| [1:17:00] | Sign of the times. | 这是变革的年代 |
| [1:17:02] | What the hell is going on? | 搞不懂究竟是怎么回事啊 |
| [1:18:01] | Lewis, can you come in early tomorrow, please? | 刘易斯 你能明天早点儿过来吗？ |
| [1:18:05] | I need to unload the AIG and Countrywide | 我得减持美国国际集团 国家银行 |
| [1:18:08] | and Freddie Mac positions | 联邦住房抵押贷款公司 |
| [1:18:09] | so that we can afford the premiums on the… | 这样才能填上资金缺口 |
| [1:18:13] | …core mortgage shorts on the swaps. | 核心做空的保费还差一些 |
| [1:18:16] | No problem, Dr. Burry. | 没问题 巴里博士 |
| [1:18:20] | Dr. Burry? | 巴里博士 |
| [1:18:25] | If the investors withdraw, | 要是投资者撤资 |
| [1:18:26] | what’s going to happen here? Are we done? | 咱们接下来会怎么样？我们就完了？ |
| [1:18:29] | Honestly, I don’t know. | 说实话 我也不知道 |
| [1:18:38] | The bonds aren’t going down. | 证券一直不下跌 |
| [1:18:42] | They won’t move. It’s possible | 一动不动 很有可能 |
| [1:18:45] | that we are in a completely fraudulent system. | 整个金融系统都在欺诈 |
| [1:18:51] | Or… You’re wrong. | 或者 是你 错了 |
| [1:18:58] | Sure. | 是有可能 |
| [1:19:00] | It’s possible I’m wrong. I just don’t know how. | 有这个可能 可我找不出我错在哪里 |
| [1:19:09] | I guess when someone’s wrong, they never… | 我估计别人犯了错 也不知道 |
| [1:19:13] | They never know how. | 错在哪里吧 |
| [1:19:20] | – See you in the morning. – Yeah. | – 早上见吧 – 好 |
| [1:19:24] | Even Bear upped their prices. | 贝尔也把价格提高了 |
| [1:19:27] | And they keep calling us Brownhole. | 管我们棕地基金叫屎洞基金 |
| [1:19:29] | You just don’t have the money or the reputation. | 你们没钱没名声 他们瞧不起也正常 |
| [1:19:31] | Don’t take it personally. | 别往心里去 |
| [1:19:32] | I don’t think I have the strip club in me tonight. | 估计今晚我没心情去看脱衣舞了 |
| [1:19:34] | I’m just gonna get some ginger ale and watch some pay-per-view. | 喝点酒去 晚上看些付费A片 |
| [1:19:37] | I’ll book us some flights out for the morning. | 订好明早的机票就行了 |
| [1:19:41] | A deal. We need a deal, right? A deal. | 交易… 我们需要做成一笔交易 |
| [1:19:44] | We need a deal we can afford. | 我们得做一个能承受的 |
| [1:19:46] | We need a deal that they’re not gonna refuse. | 并且对方肯定不会拒绝的 |
| [1:19:48] | So… What can we do? We can… | 那 我们怎么办呢… |
| [1:19:53] | The AA tranches. What if we bet against the AA tranches? | 2A评级的怎么样？我们压注2A评级的证券 |
| [1:19:56] | Who’s not gonna take that bet? | 谁会拒绝这种赌注？ |
| [1:19:58] | We know they say they’re 95% AAA-rated, | 他们说95%都是3A级别的 |
| [1:20:01] | but in reality they’re more like 25%. | 其实顶多才有25% |
| [1:20:03] | Some of them are 0%! | 剩下的都是垃圾证券 |
| [1:20:06] | We also know that if the bottom tranches fail at over 8%, | 我们也知道如果最差评级的证券 有超过8%作废 |
| [1:20:08] | the upper tranches are affected. | 就会导致最上面的证券 |
| [1:20:09] | They go to zero. | 也跟着雪崩 |
| [1:20:11] | I’ll bet you right now that those AA’s are actually like B’s. | 所以这些2A级别 顶多就是B级 |
| [1:20:14] | I rarely ever say these words, but I think Charlie’s right. | 我很少这么说 不过这回查理是对的 |
| [1:20:18] | Look, Ben. | 你看 本 |
| [1:20:21] | The payoff | 回报率… |
| [1:20:23] | is 200 to 1. | 是200比1 |
| [1:20:25] | But they’re all taking the ratings at face value. | 但他们是根据现在评级来定价 |
| [1:20:27] | So they’re charging pennies on the dollar a bet against the AA’s. | 所以低风险2A的保费很低 |
| [1:20:32] | Just when I start thinking you guys are clowns… | 我刚开始觉得你俩是笨蛋 |
| [1:20:35] | No one on the planet’s betting against AA’s. | 地球人都不会去做空2A级别 |
| [1:20:37] | The banks will think we’re either high or having a stroke. | 银行会认为我们嗑药了 或者中风了 |
| [1:20:40] | They’ll take every dime we have to offer. | 他们会大方接受我们的所有提议 |
| [1:20:45] | Kinda brilliant. | 绝妙的主意 |
| [1:20:48] | This is what we did that no one else thought of. | 这个点子 只有我们想到了 |
| [1:20:50] | Not even Baum or Burry thought to short the AA’s. | 连马克和迈克尔都没有做空2A |
| [1:20:53] | But we did. | 但我们做了 |
| [1:20:55] | Little Brownhole Capital. | 我们这个小不点屎洞基金 |
| [1:20:57] | We’re interested in shorting some of the AA tranche of CDOs. | 我们想做空一些2A级的CDO |
| [1:21:02] | Come on, guys, what’s the angle? | 直说吧 你俩在打什么主意？ |
| [1:21:04] | Oh, got no angle. We’re new to this. We’re just excited. | 我们没其他意思 新手嘛 很想拿这个试手 |
| [1:21:06] | We want to do $15 million in swaps on the AA tranche. | 我们想买1千5百万互换 做空2A级 |
| [1:21:10] | I don’t understand. | 我是搞不懂你们 |
| [1:21:11] | You can buy as much AA tranche as you want. | 你俩愿意买多少就买多少 |
| [1:21:16] | $40 million against the AA. | 那就4千万做空2A吧 |
| [1:21:18] | Brother, I will sell you as much as you want. | 哥们 你愿意买多少我都卖给你 |
| [1:21:21] | You understand perfectly, Bob. You want the deal? | 我知道我在买啥 你想卖吗？ |
| [1:21:25] | That’s cool. That’s all right with me. | 好啊 我没问题 |
| [1:21:30] | Pleasure. | 他走了 |
| [1:21:39] | Don’t do that. Stop. Stop. | 别这样 快停下来 |
| [1:21:42] | – Stop that. – Charlie. | – 别闹了 – 查理 |
| [1:21:44] | Stop it! Stop. | 停下来 你俩 |
| [1:21:47] | What? | 怎么了 |
| [1:21:50] | Do you have any idea what you just did? | 知道你们刚刚做了什么事吗 |
| [1:21:52] | Come on. We just made the deal of our lifetimes! | 我俩做成了一辈子一遇的买卖啊 |
| [1:21:53] | We should celebrate. | 应该庆祝 |
| [1:21:55] | You just bet against the American economy. | 你俩在赌未来美国经济崩溃 |
| [1:21:57] | Fuck, yeah, we did! | 是啊 没错 |
| [1:21:58] | – Fuck, yeah! – Which means… | – 这意味着 – 太棒了 |
| [1:22:00] | Which means if we’re right… | 这意味着 如果我们赌对了 |
| [1:22:04] | If we’re right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. | 如果我们是对的 人们会无家可归 大批人会失业 |
| [1:22:08] | People lose retirement savings. People lose pensions. | 大家没了退休存款 养老钱都没了 |
| [1:22:11] | You know what I hate about fucking banking? | 我最讨厌这行的就是这一点 |
| [1:22:12] | It reduces people to numbers. Here’s a number. | 把人化为数字 告诉你个数字 |
| [1:22:14] | Every 1% unemployment goes up, 40, 000 people die. Did you know that? | 失业率上升1% 死亡人数会增加4万人 明白吗 |
| [1:22:17] | – No. – Did you know that? | – 不 – 知不知道？ |
| [1:22:18] | No, I didn’t know that. | 不 我们不了解 |
| [1:22:21] | We were just excited. | 我们就是有点兴奋 |
| [1:22:25] | Just don’t fucking dance. | 还跳舞就太过分了 |
| [1:22:28] | – All right. – Where are you going? | – 好吧 – 你要去哪 |
| [1:22:34] | Whoa, I just got really scared. | 我心里有点发毛了 |
| [1:22:38] | First of all, great show today. | 今天表现挺好嘛 |
| [1:22:40] | – You were terrific. – Thank you. | – 简直好极了- 谢谢 |
| [1:22:41] | Your big mouth was a revelation. | 你嘴不严实还真是我出乎意料 |
| [1:22:43] | I appreciate that. | 理解万岁 |
| [1:22:45] | You worried you and your swaps are getting played? | 你们担心有人暗箱操作？ |
| [1:22:47] | Well, this is an opportunity for you to meet who you’re betting against. | 现在这个机会 让你们去看看对手是谁 |
| [1:22:50] | Try not to get too righteous and listen a little. | 别觉得自己正义 就不听不进他的话 |
| [1:22:52] | Okay, fine. Who is this guy? | 好吧 这人是谁？ |
| [1:22:53] | A real solid-gold asshole. | 24K级的混蛋 |
| [1:22:55] | – I’m a CDO manager. – A “CDO manager”? | – 我是CDO经理 – 还有这个职位？ |
| [1:22:58] | Yeah, at Harding Advisors. | 对啊 在哈丁顾问公司就有 |
| [1:23:00] | I didn’t realize that there was anything to manage with CDOs. | 我从没想过CDO还有什么要管的 |
| [1:23:05] | We select the securities that go into the CDO portfolio | 我们筛选进入CDO投资组合的证券 |
| [1:23:08] | and monitor the assets. | 监控背后的资产情况 |
| [1:23:10] | I do most of Merrill Lynch’s CDOs. | 我主要做美林证券的CDO |
| [1:23:11] | Do you represent the investors or Merrill Lynch? | 你是代表投资人还是美林？ |
| [1:23:14] | – The investors. – You do. | – 投资人啊 – 你啊 |
| [1:23:17] | – Yeah. – But… | – 是的 – 可是… |
| [1:23:18] | Merrill Lynch isn’t gonna send you any customers | 美林不可能白白送客户给你 |
| [1:23:20] | unless you put Merrill Lynch’s bonds in your CDO. | 除非你把美林也包含进CDO |
| [1:23:25] | Good question. Let’s just say Merrill and I have… | 问得好 你可以假设 美林和我 |
| [1:23:28] | We have a good relationship. | 我们关系不错 |
| [1:23:30] | You have a good relationship with Merrill Lynch. | 你和美林证券关系不错？ |
| [1:23:33] | We’ve been doing business together for a long time. | 我们一起做买卖 |
| [1:23:34] | And so the CDOs that you create | 所以你选出的这些CDO |
| [1:23:37] | are of the highest quality and the highest value. | 都是最高品质的最有价值的 |
| [1:23:41] | – Absolutely. Yep. – Absolutely. | – 那是当然 – 那是当然… |
| [1:23:43] | Are you at all concerned about the rising default rates? | 你不担心正在上升的断供率吗？ |
| [1:23:49] | I assume no risk for these products myself, Mark. | 我个人不觉得CDO有风险 |
| [1:23:54] | Okay. | 好吧 |
| [1:23:57] | So let me get this straight. The bank calls you up. | 那我直说吧 银行联系你 |
| [1:24:01] | They give you the bonds they want to sell. | 让你帮忙卖他们的证券 |
| [1:24:03] | They give you clients, | 再送给你客户 |
| [1:24:04] | they give you money to run your business. | 给你钱让你运行公司 |
| [1:24:06] | Give you fat fees for doing so. | 提成也少不了你的 |
| [1:24:08] | But you represent the investors? | 你居然还代表投资者？ |
| [1:24:12] | – Is that right? – Yeah. | – 你是这个逻辑吗？- 是啊 |
| [1:24:14] | But we’re not in the Merrill Lynch building. | 但我不在美林大厦里工作 |
| [1:24:16] | – Okay. Where are you? – We’re in New Jersey. | – 那你在哪 – 我在新泽西 |
| [1:24:17] | You’re 20 minutes away. | 开车20分钟就到了 |
| [1:24:19] | Well, five if you use a helicopter. | 5分钟就行了 如果你坐直升飞机 |
| [1:24:23] | – That’s funny, huh? – That’s hilarious. | – 挺好玩吧 – 真是好玩 |
| [1:24:29] | Oh, boy. | 不好 |
| [1:24:30] | Your boss is about to explode. | 你老板要发作了 |
| [1:24:33] | No, he’s too curious to explode. | 他太想搞明白了 发作不了 |
| [1:24:34] | Hold on. Say that again. | 等等 你再解释一下 |
| [1:24:36] | CDO “A” has parts of CDO | 两个CDO A包含着B的一部分 |
| [1:24:38] | And CDO “B” has parts of CDO | 然后B也包含A一部分 |
| [1:24:40] | But then they both get put inside CDO | 然后AB被放到C里面 |
| [1:24:42] | Yeah, that one’s called CDO squared. | 对 这就是CDO平方 |
| [1:24:44] | A CDO Of a CDO. | CDO的CDO |
| [1:24:47] | All right? | 明白？ |
| [1:24:48] | And then there’s CDOs made up of the opposite side | CDO还能包含你 |
| [1:24:50] | of the bet you made with your swaps. | 互换押注剩下的部分 |
| [1:24:52] | We call them synthetic CDOs. | 我们叫它 合成CDO |
| [1:24:54] | What did you say? -Synthetic CDOs. | 你说啥？合成CDO？ |
| [1:24:56] | – That is fucking crazy. -It’s not. It’s awesome. | – 真是乱套了 – 没有乱 这很赚钱 |
| [1:25:01] | His face is starting to boil. He looks like the bad guy from Dune. | 他脸都气红了 像枪战游戏里的坏蛋 |
| [1:25:09] | All right, let’s say | 那我们假设 |
| [1:25:11] | you have a pool of $50 million in subprime loans. | 你有5千万美元的次级贷 |
| [1:25:15] | How much money could be out there betting on it, | 那赌在上面的钱 能有多少？ |
| [1:25:18] | in your synthetic CDOs and swaps | 在你的合成CDO和互换里 |
| [1:25:21] | right now, tonight? | 就按今晚的行情？ |
| [1:25:22] | Let’s see, $50 million… | 5千万的次级贷… |
| [1:25:26] | – A billion dollars. – What? | – 10亿美元吧 – 啥？ |
| [1:25:29] | If the mortgage bonds that Michael Burry discovered | 如果迈克尔最早发现的房贷证券 |
| [1:25:31] | were the match… | 是火柴的话 |
| [1:25:34] | How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds than actual mortgages? | 房贷市场衍生出的证券规模有多大 |
| [1:25:39] | About 20 times. | 大概20倍吧 |
| [1:25:40] | If the mortgage bonds were the match | 如果房贷证券是火柴 |
| [1:25:42] | and the CDOs were the kerosene-soaked rags, | 那CDO就是煤油弄湿的破布 |
| [1:25:45] | then the synthetic CDO was the atomic bomb | 而合成CDO 就是原子弹 |
| [1:25:47] | with the drunk President holding his finger over the button. | 启动按钮被一个酒鬼总统把持着 |
| [1:25:50] | It was at that moment in that dumb restaurant | 这个时刻 在这破餐馆 |
| [1:25:53] | with that stupid look on his face that Mark Baum realized | 马克表情像傻了一样 他头一次意识到 |
| [1:25:56] | that the whole world economy might collapse. | 整个世界经济可能要崩溃了 |
| [1:26:02] | And I know what you’re thinking. | 我知道你们在想什么 |
| [1:26:04] | “What the fuck is a synthetic CDO?” | 合成CDO又是什么鬼 |
| [1:26:09] | Well, here’s Dr. Richard Thaler, father of behavioral economics | 好 让行为经济学之父塞勒博士 |
| [1:26:09] | 塞勒博士 美国经济学会主席 芝加哥大学教授 行为决策研究所所长 改变了经济学家研究人类的方式 “行为经济学”之父 | |
| [1:26:12] | 塞琳娜 国际流行乐坛巨星 | |
| [1:26:12] | and Selena Gomez to explain. | 和塞琳娜解释一下 |
| [1:26:15] | Okay. So here’s how a synthetic CDO works. | 合成CDO是这么回事 |
| [1:26:19] | Let’s say I bet $10 million on a blackjack hand. | 就说我赌1千万在21点牌局的这手上 |
| [1:26:22] | $10 million because this hand is meant to represent | 1千万 大概就是一个 |
| [1:26:24] | a single mortgage bond. | 房贷证券的规模 |
| [1:26:30] | Okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here, showing 18. | 好的 塞琳娜这手牌不错 |
| [1:26:33] | Dealer showing seven. | 两张明牌18点 庄家7点 |
| [1:26:34] | That’s a really good hand for Selena. | 塞琳娜拿到了一手好牌 |
| [1:26:36] | Good odds. In fact, her chances of winning | 赢面大 实际这手牌赢的概率 |
| [1:26:38] | this hand are 87%. | 是87% |
| [1:26:40] | So, my odds are good. I’m on a winning streak. | 就是说我很可能赢了现在我势头正旺 |
| [1:26:44] | Everybody in this place wants to get in on the action. | 大伙也想要趁势赚钱 |
| [1:26:47] | How could I lose, right? | 我怎么会输呢？ |
| [1:26:48] | Now, this is a classic error. | 这是个经典的思维缺陷 |
| [1:26:50] | In basketball it’s called the Hot Hand Fallacy. | 篮球里面叫”热手谬误” |
| [1:26:53] | A player makes a bunch of shots in a row. | 一个人连续投篮进了 |
| [1:26:55] | People are sure they’re gonna make the next one. | 大伙会觉得下一次也会进 |
| [1:26:58] | People think that whatever’s happening now | 人们认为 发生过的事情 |
| [1:27:00] | is gonna continue to happen into the future. | 在以后也会继续出现 |
| [1:27:03] | During the real estate boom, markets were going up and up | 在房地产泡沫时期房价一直在涨啊涨 |
| [1:27:06] | and people thought they would never go down. | 人们会觉得房价不可能跌下来 |
| [1:27:08] | So people who are watching and think that I won’t lose | 旁观的人心想 赌边注的话 |
| [1:27:10] | will make a side bet. | 也不会输 |
| [1:27:12] | Now, this is the first synthetic CDO. | 这就是第一个合成CDO |
| [1:27:14] | I love Selena Gomez. | 我喜欢塞琳娜 |
| [1:27:16] | I bet you $50 million she wins. | 我和你赌1千5百万 赌她赢 |
| [1:27:18] | And I’ll give you 3-to-1 odds. | 赔率设3：1 |
| [1:27:20] | 3-to-1 odds? Okay, I’ll take that bet. | 3：1？好 我和你赌 |
| [1:27:24] | Now, somebody else is gonna want to make a bet | 现在 旁边还有人对他俩的赌局 |
| [1:27:27] | on the outcome of their bet. | 再对赌 |
| [1:27:29] | Bet you 50 million she wins. | 五千万赌她赢 |
| [1:27:30] | That will lead to synthetic CDO number two. | 形成了第二个合成CDO |
| [1:27:33] | Hey, I bet you $200 million that lady in the glasses | 我和你赌2亿 赌那个戴眼镜的女士 |
| [1:27:36] | wins that bet. | 赢 |
| [1:27:38] | She probably will win. So I want a great payoff. | 她是赢面很大所以我很可能大赚一笔 |
| [1:27:41] | – How about 20-to-1? – Deal. | – 我就来赔率20：1吧 – 成交 |
| [1:27:44] | And this will go on and on with more and more synthetic CDOs. | 这样的过程循环往复 合成CDO越来越多 |
| [1:27:48] | And we can transform an original $10 million investment | 原始的1千万投资 |
| [1:27:52] | into billions of dollars. | 滚雪球成为了几十亿的赌注 |
| [1:27:55] | You Okay? | 你没事吧 |
| [1:27:58] | No. | 不舒服 |
| [1:28:00] | I actually feel pretty sick. | 我感觉很恶心 |
| [1:28:07] | So I’m going to leave. | 我得先走了 |
| [1:28:11] | You think I’m a parasite, don’t you, Mr. Baum? | 马克 你心里认为我就是寄生虫是吧 |
| [1:28:14] | But, apparently, society values me very much. | 可社会待见我这样的人非常待见 |
| [1:28:19] | In fact, let’s do this. | 不信的话 咱们算算 |
| [1:28:22] | I’ll tell you how much I’m worth. | 我先告诉你我现在身价多少 |
| [1:28:26] | You tell me how much you’re worth. | 你再告诉我你身价多少 |
| [1:28:29] | God, you are an incredibly big piece of shit. | 你还真是个浑身铜臭味的混蛋 |
| [1:28:39] | Short everything that guy has touched. | 买空他做的所有CDO |
| [1:28:41] | I want half a billion more in swaps. | 再投入5个亿 |
| [1:28:44] | You sure about that? The collateral calls could bankrupt you. | 你确定吗？万一不行你就破产了 |
| [1:28:46] | – Yeah. Yeah. – Where are you going? | – 我确定 – 你要去哪儿 |
| [1:28:48] | I am going to try to find moral redemption | 我得去轮盘赌那里恢复一下 |
| [1:28:51] | at the roulette table. | 粉碎的三观 |
| [1:29:57] | Hey, hey, hey! | 嘿 嘿 嘿 |
| [1:30:03] | Things are worse than I thought. | 情况比我设想的还要糟 |
| [1:30:06] | I honestly think the economy might collapse. | 这次我真觉得经济要崩溃了 |
| [1:30:08] | But you’ve been saying that the system’s broken for years, Mark. So… | 你这么说都说了几年了 迈克尔 |
| [1:30:13] | Why are you so shocked? | 这次是怎么了 |
| [1:30:18] | It’s more twisted than I could have imagined. | 我再挖空心思 也想不到里面这么黑 |
| [1:30:21] | You love to be the virtuous one. | 你总是对自己有很高的道德要求 |
| [1:30:24] | I’m a banker. I’m a part of it. | 我做这行 在这个染缸里 |
| [1:30:25] | You always have, Mark. Like you’re untainted. | 你总是这样 马克 不想沾染脏东西 |
| [1:30:28] | It changed me. It changed me into a person | 我也被改变了 我变成了 |
| [1:30:32] | who is not able to reach out to someone… | 再也不能和别人交心的人 |
| [1:30:34] | He was in pain. My brother was in real pain. | 我兄弟当时很痛苦 真的很痛苦 |
| [1:30:36] | There’s no perfect way to help. | 没有十全十美的办法来帮他 |
| [1:30:41] | It’s sad. It’s scary. | 难受就说出来 |
| [1:30:44] | So stop trying to fix the world. | 停下来别想着拯救世界了 |
| [1:30:47] | He told me… | 他对说我 |
| [1:30:48] | You’re not a saint. | 你不是圣人 |
| [1:30:50] | Saints don’t live on Park Avenue. | 圣人不会住在公园大道的富人区里 |
| [1:30:52] | …that he was having bad thoughts. | 那时他就有不好的想法 |
| [1:30:53] | Just feel the feelings like the rest of us. | 你得去接受自己的喜怒哀乐 像我们普通人一样 |
| [1:30:57] | My first response was to offer him some money. | 我当初怎么帮他的… 第一反应是给他钱 |
| [1:31:01] | I offered him fucking money! | 我他妈的只会给钱 |
| [1:31:09] | His face was so smashed. | 他最后脸都摔烂了 |
| [1:31:31] | That’s right. | 没事了 |
| [1:32:39] | Michael? | 迈克尔 |
| [1:32:40] | – Michael? – Yes. Yes. | – 迈克尔？- 我在 |
| [1:32:42] | – Is everything okay? – Yes, honey. | – 你没事吧？- 没事 亲爱的 |
| [1:32:44] | – You sure? – Yeah, baby. | – 真的？- 宝贝放心吧 |
| [1:32:48] | I’m fine. | 没事了 |
| [1:32:58] | To all investors. | 至所有的投资人 |
| [1:33:00] | As you may know, | 你们也知道 |
| [1:33:02] | our agreement allows me to take extraordinary measures | 我们的协议允许我 在市场运行脱轨的时候 |
| [1:33:06] | when markets aren’t functioning properly. | 采取极端的措施 |
| [1:33:09] | I currently have reason to believe the mortgage bond market | 我现在有理由相信 房贷证券市场 |
| [1:33:13] | is fraudulent. | 是个骗局 |
| [1:33:17] | So, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market, | 为了保护各位的投资不受扭曲市场的影响 |
| [1:33:22] | I’ve decided to restrict investors’ withdrawals | 我决定禁止投资者撤资 |
| [1:33:26] | until further notice. | 后续情况请等待通知 |
| [1:33:28] | Sincerely, Dr. Michael J. Burry. | 真诚的 迈克尔·巴里博士 |
| [1:34:39] | I never would have guessed my life | 我从未想过我的生活 |
| [1:34:40] | could change as much as it has since I moved to L.A. | 会改变这么多 自从我搬到洛杉矶 |
| [1:34:43] | It’s not just, like, that easy to, like, not see you. | 不只是不见你 |
| [1:34:45] | He lashed out at rumors he used performance enhancing drugs. | 他猛烈抨击他使用违禁药物的传闻 |
| [1:34:49] | This record is not tainted. | 这个记录不存在污点 |
| [1:34:50] | Oh, my God, dude. | 天哪 伙计 |
| [1:34:52] | Will you please stop changing the channels? | 你能不能 别老是换频道了 |
| [1:34:53] | – You’re driving me crazy. – All right. | – 要把我逼疯了 – 好吧 |
| [1:34:55] | – Fine. – Just put the business news on. | – 好的 – 就放商业新闻好了 |
| [1:34:58] | – …and the S&P picked up three points. – Jesus! | – 标准普尔指数提升3点 – 天啊 |
| [1:35:00] | Mortgage meltdown continued today. | 房贷市场崩溃还在继续 |
| [1:35:02] | Subprime mortgage lender New Century Financial, | 曾经是领军企业 发放次级贷的 |
| [1:35:05] | once the industry leader, by the way, filed for bankruptcy. | 新世纪金融公司申请破产 |
| [1:35:08] | – The company immediately… – Whoa, whoa, whoa. | – 该公司马上… – 哇 哇 |
| [1:35:10] | Good time for my voice to go… | 我清一下嗓子 |
| [1:35:11] | Fired 3, 200 workers. | 裁员了3200人 |
| [1:35:14] | The manufacturing index also fell in the month of March… | 与三月相比 制造业指数仍在下滑 |
| [1:35:16] | It’s starting. | 开始了… |
| [1:35:17] | …a warning that economic growth could slow. | 有专家提醒 经济增长可能会放缓 |
| [1:35:19] | The Institute of Supply Management also reported a rise in prices… | 相关机构声称 次级贷资产价格仍在上涨 |
| [1:35:22] | I’m gonna call my mom. | 我必须打电话给我妈了 |
| [1:35:26] | The principal source of the slowdown in economic growth… | 经济放缓的主要原因 |
| [1:35:29] | Time and time and time again, I have gone to bat for you, Mark! | 每次我都帮你挡着 马克 |
| [1:35:33] | We’ve known each other for seven years… | 我们认识都17年了 |
| [1:35:35] | She’s got some lungs on her. I’m impressed. | 她嗓门这么大 真是厉害 |
| [1:35:38] | I can’t help but enjoy it. | 看她生气我还挺高兴 |
| [1:35:41] | There’s no fucking way. There’s no fucking way | 绝对不可能 绝对不可能 |
| [1:35:43] | that the big banks are that stupid. | 大银行哪有这么蠢 |
| [1:35:45] | Bye, Kathy! | 再见 凯茜 |
| [1:35:52] | Well? | 怎么说 |
| [1:35:54] | Kathy thinks that it would be a good idea if we sold our shorts. | 凯茜说 我们应该卖掉做空的互换 |
| [1:35:58] | What else is new? | 老话重提 |
| [1:35:59] | And she said that Morgan Stanley will buy them. | 她说摩根士丹利会买下来 |
| [1:36:01] | Holy shit! | 天啊 |
| [1:36:02] | What did you say? | 你怎么说 |
| [1:36:04] | I told her we’re not selling shit. | 我告诉她 我们啥都不卖 |
| [1:36:12] | If you need the files for 2005… | 如果你需要2005年资料的话… |
| [1:36:16] | Mr. Fields’ suit is very specific to files from the past year. | 菲尔德先生的诉讼 只需要去年到现在的资料 |
| [1:36:19] | Good. Then get out. Say hi to Lawrence for me. | 那出去吧 代我向劳伦斯问好 |
| [1:36:22] | Will do. | 好的 |
| [1:36:26] | You can’t call me back for a week? | 你一个礼拜都不能回我电话？ |
| [1:36:28] | I am so sorry, Mike. | 我很抱歉 迈克尔 |
| [1:36:30] | Goldman had a systems failure. I lost a ton of messages. | 高盛的系统崩溃 我把很多消息都丢了 |
| [1:36:34] | Yeah, B of A said they had a power outage, | 美国银行说他们停电了 |
| [1:36:36] | and Morgan Stanley said their server crashed. | 摩根士丹利说服务器崩溃了 |
| [1:36:39] | That’s weird. | 这么凑巧 |
| [1:36:40] | Well, I would call it improbable. | 我觉得不太可能 |
| [1:36:43] | So where do you have our position marked? | 那你记录我们的资金量是多少 |
| [1:36:47] | I think it’s the same, Mike. | 和以前一样 迈克尔 |
| [1:36:49] | What? Can you explain that to me, please, | 什么？你能给我解释一下吗？ |
| [1:36:51] | because how can the value of an insurance contract | 被保的东西都毁灭了还不能用保险 |
| [1:36:54] | not be affected by the demise of the very thing it insures? | 那一个保险合同还叫什么保险合同？ |
| [1:36:59] | They’re independent markets. They’re not always correlated. | 他们是独立的市场 两者并不总是相关 |
| [1:37:02] | I know it sounds odd, | 我知道听起来奇怪 |
| [1:37:03] | but these are very complicated products. | 但是它们都是十分复杂的金融产品 |
| [1:37:06] | They are correlated. | 它们本来就是相关的 |
| [1:37:08] | They’re gonna lose their houses, they’re gonna lose theirjobs, | 人们会没了房子 丢了工作 |
| [1:37:10] | they’re gonna lose their… | 养老金… |
| [1:37:14] | Will you listen to me? | 你好好听我说 |
| [1:37:16] | This is like the end of capitalism. | 这次… 就像资本主义终结一样严重 |
| [1:37:19] | This is like the Dark Ages all over again. | 再次回到黑暗时代 |
| [1:37:23] | I don’t want to talk to Dad. | 我不想和我爸说话 |
| [1:37:24] | Okay, I love you, too. Save your money. | 我也爱你 把你们的钱保护好 |
| [1:37:28] | She says I need to be on Xanax and double my dose of Zoloft. | 她说我得去开治抑郁的药 抗焦虑的药要加倍 |
| [1:37:32] | I asked Bear Stearns to price our shorts. | 我问贝尔斯登买我们做空的报价 |
| [1:37:34] | They tell me the CDOs still haven’t moved. | 他们说CDO价格还是没变 |
| [1:37:35] | This is fucking insane! | 这帮人真是丧心病狂了 |
| [1:37:37] | You realize that? These people are crooks | 这帮合伙骗子 |
| [1:37:39] | and they should be in prison. | 应该进监狱 |
| [1:37:41] | Look at the TABX. | 看看资产担保证券指数 |
| [1:37:42] | You can see that the CDOs are worth zero! | CDO的价值已经是零了 |
| [1:37:44] | So you know what they’re doing, huh? You know what they’re doing, right? | 你知道他们想干啥吗 你知道他们想干啥吗 |
| [1:37:46] | Yeah. They’re unloading them. | 他们之所以不买 |
| [1:37:48] | They’re selling their dog shit CDOs, then they go to another bank | 是因为要卖出去自己的狗屎CDO 然后才能去另一家银行 |
| [1:37:52] | and short the shit they just fucking sold! | 做空自己的狗屎 再吃进去 |
| [1:37:54] | Let’s go to the press, man! | 天哪 咱们可以去找媒体了 |
| [1:37:55] | This is a massive story. Who wouldn’t publish it? | 这绝对是轰动新闻 谁会不愿意登 |
| [1:38:00] | Robert Redford! | 罗伯特？雷德福那样的 |
| [1:38:02] | No, you don’t understand! | 再做空自己买下的 |
| [1:38:03] | I got it, guys. I got it. | 我明白了 我明白了 |
| [1:38:04] | 纽约美洲大道1211号 华尔街日报 | |
| [1:38:06] | What am I supposed to do? | 我又能做什么？ |
| [1:38:08] | Do you want me to write a piece called “We’re All Fucked”? | 难道写一篇报道 题目就叫”我们都完蛋了” |
| [1:38:10] | Yes! That’s a perfect title! | 好啊 完美的题目 |
| [1:38:12] | Casey, right now every bank in town is unloading these shit bonds | 现在所有的银行都在转手这些垃圾证券 |
| [1:38:16] | onto unsuspecting customers. | 让那些不了解内情的人买单 |
| [1:38:18] | And they won’t devalue them until they get them off their books. | 他们在卖出去之前是不会主动降价的 |
| [1:38:21] | This level of criminality is unprecedented, even on fucking Wall Street. | 这种犯罪程度在华尔街也是史无前例 |
| [1:38:27] | Jamie… And this is me being honest here, okay? | 杰米 我就打开天窗说亮话吧 |
| [1:38:30] | It took me years to build my relationships on Wall Street. | 我在华尔街建立关系网花了好几年 |
| [1:38:33] | No bank or ratings agency is going to confirm a story like this | 没有银行或者评级机构 会傻到主动承认你俩所说的 |
| [1:38:37] | just because it comes from two guys in a… | 你俩的基金开在车库 |
| [1:38:40] | Sorry, garage band hedge fund that thinks it’s the apocalypse. | 吵吵着世界末日就要来了 谁信 |
| [1:38:46] | I thought you were for real, Casey. You know, I’ll have to say I really did. | 我还以为你是良心记者 真的 我一直都这么想 |
| [1:38:49] | Really? | 真的？ |
| [1:38:50] | Yeah, Jamie, you try being for real with a three-year-old | 杰米 你和我讲良心 我现在小孩3岁 |
| [1:38:52] | and a wife getting her master’s degree. | 老婆也要交学费读硕士 |
| [1:38:54] | I’m not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch. | 我不会因为你们瞎猜就把自己的名誉赔进去 |
| [1:39:01] | Thanks for coming, guys. | 麻烦你俩跑一趟了 |
| [1:39:02] | Totally fucking awesome to see you. | 见到你们真他妈开心 |
| [1:39:03] | Yeah, Casey. I’ve always hated you, because you were a prick in college | 我们也是 之前我就对你不爽 在大学里面你就这臭屁样儿 |
| [1:39:07] | and you are a prick today! | 到现在了还是没改 |
| [1:39:10] | Thanks, Charlie. Still living with your mom? | 谢谢评价 那你还在和你妈一起住吗？ |
| [1:39:13] | Charlie, come on! | 查理 咱们走 |
| [1:39:15] | Mark Baum again. Call me. | 我是马克·鲍姆 给我回电话 |
| [1:39:17] | Subprime bonds fell off a cliff. | 次级贷证券大跳水 |
| [1:39:19] | Rumor has it the default numbers are huge. | 传闻有大批房贷断供 |
| [1:39:21] | Who got the remittance data early? I bet it’s Goldman. | 谁先拿到汇款数据了？估计是高盛 |
| [1:39:24] | Yeah, fuck you very much. | 真是帮倒忙 |
| [1:39:25] | Jared, it’s chaos down here. Where are we? | 杰瑞德 我这儿一团乱麻 咱们情况怎么样 |
| [1:39:29] | “And Caesar wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer.” | “他哭泣了 再也没能让我征服的地方了” 亚历山大大帝名言 |
| [1:39:33] | Shane? | 夏恩… |
| [1:39:35] | Shane? | 夏恩 |
| [1:39:38] | Well, nobody’s buying CDO or mortgage bonds anymore | 情况是没人买CDO和房贷证券了 |
| [1:39:41] | and everybody wants swaps. | 人人都要买互换 |
| [1:39:42] | Swaps are now the most popular product on the street. | 这是华尔街现在最抢手的东西 |
| [1:39:45] | – That’s good for us. – Yes and no. | – 对我们是好消息吧 – 是也不是 |
| [1:39:47] | I heard from somebody who heard from somebody… | 我听别人说… 对方也从别处听说… |
| [1:39:48] | No, Alex, no. Sorry. | 不行 亚历克斯 这里我占了 |
| [1:39:54] | Bennie Cleager over at Morgan is taking on some heavy losses in the bond department. | 我听说摩根的本尼在证券部门损失惨重 |
| [1:39:59] | Your ship might be taking on water. | 你所在的大船可能漏水了 |
| [1:40:01] | It might be time to get our Iifejacket and get out. | 赶紧穿上救生衣跳船吧 |
| [1:40:03] | Holy shit! | 我的天 |
| [1:40:04] | I’m jacked. | 他妈的 |
| [1:40:06] | I’m jacked! I’m jacked to the tits! | 他妈的 我就是要这样 |
| [1:40:09] | Good. | 很好 |
| [1:40:11] | – Do you feel it? – No. | – 能体会到痛苦又兴奋的感觉吗 – 我可不想 |
| [1:40:19] | What’d you hear, Tommy? | 你听到什么了泰德 |
| [1:40:22] | It’s happening… | 开始了 |
| [1:40:23] | Everybody wants our swaps. | 大伙都要买我们的互换 |
| [1:40:26] | Kathy’s office is looking for you. | 凯茜让你去她办公室 |
| [1:40:28] | They’re singing a different tune now, aren’t they? | 黑脸的又变白脸了 |
| [1:40:32] | That’s not good. | 情况不妙啊 |
| [1:40:38] | Maybe later. Not now. | 以后再说吧 |
| [1:40:39] | This is a joke. Never. | 我没开玩笑 |
| [1:40:45] | Listening. | 我听着呢 |
| [1:40:47] | – Dr. Burry? – Yeah. | – 巴里博士？- 是我 |
| [1:40:48] | Deeb Winston, Goldman Sachs. | 我是高盛的迪伯？温斯顿 |
| [1:40:50] | Listen, I’ve been reviewing your position. | 我看了一下你的价位 |
| [1:40:52] | I wanted to discuss your marks and make sure they’re fair. | 想要和你讨论估值的情况 尽可能的公平 |
| [1:40:54] | Yeah, I think you mean that you’ve secured a net short position yourselves. | 我想 你的意思是你已经做空了自己的仓位 |
| [1:41:00] | So you’re free to mark my swaps accurately for once | 这样你总算能认真评估我的互换了 |
| [1:41:03] | because it’s now in your interest to do so. | 现在对你们也有利 |
| [1:41:07] | I’m not sure what you want me to say. | 我… 我不知道你要我怎么说 |
| [1:41:10] | I think that… | 我想… |
| [1:41:13] | I think that you’ve already said it. | 你该说的都说了 |
| [1:41:23] | You tell Jeff at Goldman that I’m not transferring funds. | 你告诉高盛的杰夫 我绝对不会转移基金 |
| [1:41:25] | This is bullshit! | 太扯淡了 |
| [1:41:34] | Okay, we’ll talk later. | 回头再说 |
| [1:41:36] | Thank you. | 谢谢… |
| [1:41:40] | Thanks for coming so quickly, Mark. | 谢谢你这么快就过来了 |
| [1:41:42] | Yeah. | 嗯 |
| [1:41:43] | I know you’ve been hearing rumblings about some losses Morgan has suffered. | 我知道你听说了摩根有一些损失 |
| [1:41:46] | – Congratulations. – On what? | – 恭喜你 – 恭喜什么？ |
| [1:41:51] | Thanks. | 谢谢 |
| [1:41:52] | Having fun? | 感觉挺好的吧 |
| [1:41:55] | Yes. | 还行 |
| [1:41:57] | Tons. | 是感觉不错 |
| [1:41:59] | I just wanted you to know that… | 我想告诉你 |
| [1:42:02] | That, yes, Morgan has suffered some losses, | 摩根是遭受了一些损失 |
| [1:42:04] | but our liquidity is strong and there’s no cause for concern. | 但我们的流动资产还是很稳健 不需要再担心什么了 |
| [1:42:08] | Would Bennie Cleager be concerned? | 那需要担心本尼吗？ |
| [1:42:11] | Because word on the street is that he took some pretty heavy losses. | 听人说他损失惨重 |
| [1:42:16] | Kathy, come on. We know each other. | 凯茜 别遮掩了 咱们都认识多少年了… |
| [1:42:18] | What’s going on? | 发生了什么事情 |
| [1:42:21] | How bad is this? | 情况有多严重 |
| [1:42:23] | Okay. | 好吧 |
| [1:42:25] | Two years ago, Bennie Cleager in Morgan’s bond department | 在两年以前 摩根证券部门的克里格 |
| [1:42:28] | also started shorting subprime housing, $2 billion in BBBs. | 也开始做空次级贷 20亿做空3B级 |
| [1:42:31] | Bennie is smarter than I thought. | 本尼比我想的还要聪明啊 |
| [1:42:33] | No, he’s not smart at all. | 不 他一点也不聪明 |
| [1:42:34] | The premiums on the swap ate into his desk’s profit. | 交的保费搭进去了其他利润 |
| [1:42:37] | To cover his BBB shorts, | 为了保住3B的做空 |
| [1:42:39] | he sold a lot ofA and AA swaps as protection. | 他卖了很多的A和2A的交换做保护 |
| [1:42:41] | A lot. | 很多 |
| [1:42:43] | He believed that there was no way that they could be affected. | 他觉得 不可能A级的也会受影响 |
| [1:42:47] | Tell me Morgan Stanley doesn’t hold the contracts on these swaps. | 你该不会说是摩根士丹利卖给我们交换的吧 |
| [1:42:53] | Holy shit. | 我的天 |
| [1:42:56] | All this time I’ve been trying to figure out who I’m betting against, | 我一直都在找我们的对家是谁 |
| [1:42:59] | and it’s Morgan Stanley. | 没想到是我们的母公司 |
| [1:43:02] | Which is me. | 遭殃的是自己的公司 |
| [1:43:05] | What’s your exposure? $3 billion? | 风险敞口有多少？30亿？ |
| [1:43:08] | Please, don’t tell me it’s more than four. | 不可能超过40亿吧？ |
| [1:43:10] | I can’t answer that. I can’t answer that. | 我不能回答你这问题 |
| [1:43:12] | Yes, you can answer that, because I walk in here | 你可以说… 我过来的时候 |
| [1:43:15] | and people are crying in your hallway. | 看到走廊上的人都在哭 |
| [1:43:19] | Kathy, | 凯茜 |
| [1:43:20] | you bring me in to tell me everything’s fine, | 你跟我说什么事儿都好 |
| [1:43:23] | and everything’s not fine. | 可什么事儿现在都不好 |
| [1:43:24] | What, what is happening? | 究竟现在是怎么了 |
| [1:43:29] | The long exposure is… | 做多的敞口有… |
| [1:43:33] | $150 billion. | 150亿 |
| [1:43:40] | Jesus! | 我的老天爷 |
| [1:43:41] | He kept saying defaults over 8% were impossible. | 你总是说断供率不可能超过8%的 |
| [1:43:44] | Oh, my God. | 我的天 |
| [1:43:45] | That there would be a million homeless! | 那样会有1百万人无家可归 |
| [1:43:48] | Yeah, but we have nothing to do with Morgan Stanley. | 摩根和我们没有关系 |
| [1:43:53] | Yeah… | 嗯 |
| [1:43:54] | Tell the bankruptcy court. | 那你上破产法庭这么说去 |
| [1:43:56] | Morgan fails, all our accounts go on their balance sheet. | 摩根破产 我们所有的钱都会转到 他们的资产负债表上 |
| [1:44:00] | It’s just crazy. | 这也太疯狂了 |
| [1:44:02] | Morgan makes the sucker’s bet | 摩根输了烂赌注 |
| [1:44:03] | and we pay their fucking gambling debt? | 却让我们来还账？ |
| [1:44:06] | Short the bank stocks. Then we wait. | 做空摩根的股票 然后我们等 |
| [1:44:12] | Or we sell our swaps when the market opens. | 或者等市场一开始交易 就卖了我们的互换 |
| [1:44:16] | We get our bonuses, our investors get their profits, we get… | 我们拿到奖金 我们的投资人拿到收益 |
| [1:44:19] | What, 30 cents on the dollar? It’s not bad. | 咱们能拿到一块钱里的三毛钱 至少能保命 |
| [1:44:22] | We’re three times that. | 我们比这值3倍 |
| [1:44:24] | Not if there’s no market left to sell them in. | 要是买家市场都没了 就烂到手里了 |
| [1:44:26] | Forget it. We’re not giving out any lifeboats. | 不行 我不能把救生船送给这些人 |
| [1:44:28] | If Morgan goes under, we end up with nothing. | 马克 如果摩根垮了 到头来我们什么都没有了 |
| [1:44:30] | Vinnie. | 文尼 |
| [1:44:33] | Jesus, come on. I say when we sell. | 别争了 我说卖 咱们再卖 |
| [1:44:40] | Look, I get that this is personal for you, but we have a fiduciary responsibility. | 我知道你跟华尔街有私人恩怨 但是我们对投资人也要负责 |
| [1:44:45] | No. No, we don’t. | 我们不需要负责 |
| [1:44:47] | Nobody’s acting responsible. | 我们负责？这里谁给别人负责？ |
| [1:44:49] | Fuck responsibility. Are you kidding me? | 操他妈的责任 跟我谈负责 |
| [1:44:52] | The assholes at the big banks will take… | 大银行的那些混蛋们 |
| [1:44:54] | You boys want any appetizers? | 你们点菜吗？ |
| [1:44:56] | We’re talking, please! | 我们在说正经事… 别打扰 |
| [1:44:58] | – Excuse us. – Sorry. | – 请原谅 – 抱歉了 |
| [1:45:02] | We are going to wait, and we are going to wait, | 我们要等着 耐心等着 |
| [1:45:05] | and we are going to wait until they feel the pain, until they start to bleed. | 等到他们知道疼了 开始流血了才行 |
| [1:45:10] | – That is what I want. – But what about our clients | – 这才是我想要的结果 – 那我们的客户怎么办 |
| [1:45:13] | who’ve entrusted us with their savings… | 我们在拿他们的钱冒风险 |
| [1:45:14] | I say when we sell. | 我说卖 我们再出手 |
| [1:45:15] | This isn’t about you. | 这不是你公报私仇的时候 |
| [1:45:16] | – This isn’t about you and your Upper East Side mahogany soapbox. – Hey! Hey! | – 这不是有关你和你的富人区 -嘿 嘿 |
| [1:45:19] | I say when we sell! | 我说卖 再出手 |
| [1:45:22] | Whatever you say, Mark. | 好吧 那听你的 |
| [1:45:30] | Dude, did you hear the news? | 伙计你看新闻了吗 |
| [1:45:34] | Okay. So, not only do two mortgage hedge funds backed by Bear Stearns go belly up, | 好的 那 不仅是两个贝尔投资的房贷对冲基金爆仓了 |
| [1:45:38] | but now there’s a class-action lawsuit against Bear. | 而且现在贝尔还被集体诉讼 |
| [1:45:41] | Holy shit! | 坏了 |
| [1:45:43] | Let’s go! Push! Push! | 跟我做 用力 用力 |
| [1:45:45] | So, what? Bear could really collapse here. | 那怎么了？贝尔会破产吗？ |
| [1:45:47] | – This is a risk we really shouldn’t take. – Then what? | – 我们不能冒这个险 – 那又怎样 |
| [1:45:49] | We bought 80% of our swaps at Bear. | 我们有80%的互换 是从贝尔那里买的 |
| [1:45:51] | We ‘d lose everything. | 我们可能陪个精光 |
| [1:45:52] | – Hey, sir? – One second! | – 先生 – 马上就好 |
| [1:45:54] | That’s my opinion. | 这是我的看法 |
| [1:45:55] | We bought these fucking things. We have no clue how to sell them. | 我们买了这东西 却不知道怎么卖 |
| [1:45:58] | I know. We have to get Ben to do it. | 是啊 所以我们得找本帮忙 |
| [1:45:59] | I’ve been trying to call him and he won’t get back to me. | 我一直给他打电话 他也不回 |
| [1:46:01] | No. He’s on vacation with his wife’s family. | 现在他和老婆一家人在度假 |
| [1:46:03] | They’re in England. | 在英国 |
| [1:46:06] | What? | 什么？ |
| [1:46:07] | 英国南部港口艾克斯茅斯 黑马酒吧 | |
| [1:46:14] | – Hello, Ben. – Hey. Guys’? | – 你好 本 – 你们好 |
| [1:46:16] | Yeah, we’re here. Can you hear us? | 我们在 你能听清吗 |
| [1:46:18] | – Guys? – Yeah, we got you. | – 伙计们 我听的清楚 |
| [1:46:19] | Yeah. I hardly got cell phone or Wi-Fi service. | 我这里电话和无线网络信号都不好 |
| [1:46:23] | I’m trying to sell $200 million worth of securities. | 居然要这样卖掉2亿的证券 |
| [1:46:26] | In a pub. It smells like sheep. | 就在这酒吧 闻着绵羊味儿 |
| [1:46:29] | You can do this. | 你能行的 |
| [1:46:30] | I don’t want to pressure you, Ben | 我不想给你压力 |
| [1:46:31] | but if you don’t pull this off, we lose everything. | 但你搞不定的话 我们就全赔光了 |
| [1:46:34] | All right. Let’s see what Credit Suisse’s appetite is. | 看看瑞士瑞信银行的胃口如何 |
| [1:46:42] | This is Brownfield Fund. | 我是棕地基金 |
| [1:46:44] | I want to unload my credit default swaps. | 我想要抛售我的信用违约互换 |
| [1:46:46] | All right. What you got? | 好的 你们有多少 |
| [1:46:48] | Twenty AA tranches of A.B.S. CDOs. | 大概有20个2A级别的CDO |
| [1:46:50] | A.B.S.? Are these… These are pretty bad? | 好吧… 这些现在行情不太好 |
| [1:46:52] | Absolutely. They’re complete shit. | 是啊 全是垃圾 |
| [1:46:55] | What’s your notional value? | 你的… |
| [1:46:56] | Face value is 205 million. Dollars. | 面值是2亿50万 美元 |
| [1:46:59] | All right, we could, we could go to forty. | 那我们能… 以40收购 |
| [1:47:02] | No. We want at least 100 million. | 不行 至少要1亿 |
| [1:47:03] | 100 million? Who are you, a drug dealer or a banker? | 1个亿？你是毒品贩子 还是搞银行的？ |
| [1:47:07] | ‘Cause if you’re a banker, you can fuck right off! | 你要是银行家 就立马给我滚蛋 |
| [1:47:10] | I don’t know if we can make a market. | 我不知道能不能坐庄 |
| [1:47:11] | Just give me your best price? | 直接说你的最好报价 |
| [1:47:12] | Yeah. Chuck 100 million in for me, mate. | 哎呦 1个亿还嫌不够 |
| [1:47:15] | I think we’re far apart. | 我觉得我们期望差太多 |
| [1:47:17] | Look, if you don’t want the deal, you can just hang up. | 你要是不想买 就直接挂断 |
| [1:47:21] | That’s what I thought. | 跟我料想的一样 |
| [1:47:24] | – 90 million. -70. | – 9千万 – 7千万 |
| [1:47:27] | 85. | 8千5百万 |
| [1:47:29] | -78. -84. | – 7千8百万 – 8千4百万 |
| [1:47:32] | -78. -84. | – 7千8百万 – 8千4百万 |
| [1:47:36] | It’s Dr. Burry. | 我是巴里博士 |
| [1:47:38] | Looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent. | 看来金融危机马上来了 |
| [1:47:42] | Let’s start to sell my position. | 我以现在的仓位出手 |
| [1:47:44] | It’s $1.3 billion. | 13亿 |
| [1:47:47] | Sure, I’ll hold. | 当然 我可以等着 |
| [1:48:13] | So, I was right. | 最终我还是对的 |
| [1:48:15] | I took a rash of shit for two years, but | 我被人喷了两年… |
| [1:48:18] | I was right. | 但是我是对的 |
| [1:48:20] | And everyone was wrong. | 所有人都错了 |
| [1:48:23] | And, yeah, I got a bonus check for it. Sue me. | 我还拿到了奖金支票 来告我啊 |
| [1:48:27] | You know? | 随便了 |
| [1:48:28] | It’s a lot of money. I get it. I can feel you judging me. | 这钱是不少 我能感到你们心里有看法 |
| [1:48:32] | That’s palpable. | 很明显嘛 |
| [1:48:34] | But, hey, I never said I was the hero of this story. | 可是呢 我从没说过我是这个故事里的英雄人物 |
| [1:48:39] | Hey, Ben. How are we looking? | 你好啊 情况怎么样？ |
| [1:48:43] | Eight…on… | 八 万 |
| [1:48:45] | Sorry? | 什么？ |
| [1:48:46] | No. Eighty million. | 是8千万 8千万成交了 |
| [1:48:49] | $80 million, $80 million, that’s good, right? | 8千万 8千万 这挺好的是吧 |
| [1:48:50] | – Eighty is great. – Is that good? | – 8千万很好 – 很好吗？ |
| [1:48:52] | – Eighty is great, Ben. – Okay. | – 是的 本 – 对 |
| [1:48:53] | Thank you. Thank you so much. | 谢谢你 非常感谢 |
| [1:48:55] | Most of it went to UBS. | 钱都汇到瑞士联合银行了 |
| [1:48:57] | You’re very lucky. The largest bank | 你们运气相当不错 |
| [1:48:59] | in France froze customer’s money market accounts today. | 今天法国把国内最大的货币市场账户冻结了 |
| [1:49:02] | This thing’s hitting Europe. | 风暴已经传到欧洲了 |
| [1:49:04] | Greece and Iceland are finished. | 希腊和爱尔兰已经完了 |
| [1:49:06] | Spain is teetering. | 西班牙正在遭殃 |
| [1:49:07] | Are you serious? Fuck. | 真的假的？这么严重 |
| [1:49:09] | Ben, call us when you get home. | 本 等你回家给我们打电话 |
| [1:49:11] | But, hey, before you go, | 不过放电话之前请等一下 |
| [1:49:13] | I’m just wondering… | 我一直想问… |
| [1:49:18] | Why did you do this with us? | 你为什么要和我们做这件事 |
| [1:49:21] | You didn’t have to. | 你并不需要… |
| [1:49:23] | Thank you. But, why? | 当然我们很感谢你 但 为什么 |
| [1:49:28] | You guys said you wanted to get rich. Now you’re rich. | 你们说想要发财 现在你们有钱了 |
| [1:49:38] | As the housing markets and banks continued to hemorrhage, | 房产和银行还在持续出血 |
| [1:49:41] | only one of the big shorts refused to sell. | 只有一家大单做空的还拒绝出售 |
| [1:49:43] | Mark Baum. | 马克·鲍姆的空头 |
| [1:49:48] | So it was beyond perfect when he was asked to speak | 这简直比咱们导演的还要好 |
| [1:49:50] | at a conference opposite Bruce Miller, | 他在会议上和布鲁斯·米勒同台讨论 |
| [1:49:52] | the famous bullish investor. | 著名的乐观投资人 |
| [1:49:55] | After he and Mark had their debate, Alan Greenspan, | 他和马克辩论以后 格林斯潘 |
| [1:49:57] | one of the architects of the whole crisis was scheduled to speak. | 整个金融危机的总设计师 还要继续讲话 |
| [1:50:01] | Everyone in Mark’s office showed up, he even invited friends. | 马克办公室的人都来了 把朋友也邀请过来了 |
| [1:50:05] | This was the Ali vs. Foreman of the financial world. | 这就像金融界的阿里和福尔曼的拳击世纪对决 |
| [1:50:09] | The realist versus the fools. | 现实主义者对战傻瓜 |
| [1:50:11] | And if it seems almost too perfect, | 在我们以为事情不可能更完美的时候 |
| [1:50:13] | trust me, this happened. | 相信我 这事儿发生了 |
| [1:50:19] | Welcome, everyone. Please give a generous welcome to | 请让我们热烈欢迎 |
| [1:50:23] | Mr. Bruce Miller and Mark Baum. | 布鲁斯·米勒和马克·鲍姆 |
| [1:50:44] | Strap yourself in. | 系好安全带看戏了 |
| [1:50:47] | So as some of you may know, Bear Steams | 你们有些人可能知道 贝尔斯登 |
| [1:50:49] | has just received a loan from JP Morgan. | 刚刚接受了一笔摩根的贷款 |
| [1:50:52] | Of course, we’re gonna have to wait and see how the markets react, | 当然我们等些时间才能看到市场的反馈 |
| [1:50:55] | but that should lay to rest any concerns about the bank’s health. | 但这事本身就能打消对贝尔银行的担心了 |
| [1:50:58] | Now, I take it you have no plans to sell your $200 million in Bear stock? | 我理解 所以你本人不会出售你的2亿股票了 |
| [1:51:03] | No. As a matter of fact, when we’re done here, | 当然不 实际上等我们聊完 |
| [1:51:05] | I’ll probably go out and buy some more. | 我还要再买进更多 |
| [1:51:08] | For the opposing view, Mr. Baum. | 而对立观点… 马克·鲍姆 |
| [1:51:14] | I got to stand for this. | 我得站起来说 |
| [1:51:19] | Okay, hi. | 好的 大家好 |
| [1:51:21] | My firm’s thesis is pretty simple. | 我们公司投资理念很简单 |
| [1:51:24] | Wall Street took a good idea, Lewis Ranieri’s mortgage bond, | 华尔街把最初刘易斯房贷证券的好点子 |
| [1:51:28] | and turned it into an atomic bomb of fraud and stupidity | 变成了一个欺诈和愚蠢做成的原子弹 |
| [1:51:32] | that’s on its way to decimating the world economy. | 现在原子弹马上就要毁灭全球经济了 |
| [1:51:35] | How do you really feel? | 你说的还挺像那么回事似的 |
| [1:51:38] | I’m glad you still have a sense of humor. | 我没想到你现在还能笑的出来 |
| [1:51:40] | I wouldn’t if I were you. | 我要是你的话可不这么乐观 |
| [1:51:42] | Now, anyone who knows me knows that | 认识我的人都知道 |
| [1:51:46] | I have no problem telling someone they’re wrong. | 我是对别人的错误直言不讳的 |
| [1:51:49] | Bear Stearns is denying rumors of liquidity problems. | 贝尔斯登否认存在流动资金问题的谣言 |
| [1:51:52] | – But for the first time.. in my life.. – Holy fuck, it’s 39 now! | – 但这一辈子 我是头一次… – 天啊 股价39 |
| [1:51:55] | It’s not so enjoyable | 真心笑不出来 |
| [1:51:58] | We live in an era of fraud in America. | 现在的美国充斥着欺诈 |
| [1:52:00] | Notjust in banking, but in government, | 不仅是银行 连政府也参与其中 |
| [1:52:03] | education, religion, food, | 教育 宗教 食品 |
| [1:52:06] | even baseball. | 连棒球都作假 |
| [1:52:08] | What bothers me isn’t that | 真正让我担心的 |
| [1:52:11] | fraud is not nice or that fraud is mean. | 并不是说欺诈不道德 也不是说欺诈很邪恶 |
| [1:52:16] | It’s that for 15, 000 years | 而是说 在过去一万五千年的历史中 |
| [1:52:18] | fraud and short-sighted thinking | 欺诈和短视 |
| [1:52:20] | have never, ever worked. | 就从来没有成功过 |
| [1:52:22] | – Not once. – Jesus, Bear at 37… | – 一次都没有 – 已经降到37了 |
| [1:52:25] | We’re at thirty-seven | 已经降到37了 |
| [1:52:29] | It’s plummeting again, It’s fucking plummeting, man. | 又要下跌 他妈的是暴跌 |
| [1:52:30] | When the hell did we forget all that? | 我们难道都忘记教训了吗？ |
| [1:52:37] | I thought we were better than this. I really did. | 我还以为我们有希望 真的这么以为过 |
| [1:52:40] | And the fact that we’re not | 还有虽然我们不够明智 |
| [1:52:42] | doesn’t make me feel all right and superior. | 但是我也不觉得自己多么正义 多么骄傲 |
| [1:52:45] | It makes me feel… Sad. | 我只是为大家感到… 深深的悲哀 |
| [1:52:48] | Every time I fucking hit “refresh” it’s dropping, man. | – 我每次刷新 股价都在掉 – 垮掉算了 |
| [1:52:52] | And as fun as it is to watch | 看笑话的心情… |
| [1:52:53] | pompous, dumb Wall Streeters be wildly wrong, | 看这些自大愚蠢的华尔街人士大错特错 |
| [1:52:56] | and you are wrong, sir, | 您也一样 大错特错 |
| [1:52:59] | I just know, that at the end of the day | 我只知道 最后… |
| [1:53:03] | average people are going to be the ones that are gonna have to pay for all this. | 将是普通百姓来承受这些痛苦 |
| [1:53:08] | Because they always, always do. | 兴亡总是百姓遭殃 |
| [1:53:11] | It’s 32. | 真是32点 |
| [1:53:12] | It’s fucking tanked, man. | 这是跌破的节奏 |
| [1:53:13] | That’s my two cents. Thank you. | 这是我的拙见 谢谢大家 |
| [1:53:16] | Let me drop a deuce at Deutsche. | 我得去德意志银行去看热闹 |
| [1:53:18] | Does our bull have a response? | 我们的乐观派有什么回应吗 |
| [1:53:21] | Only that, in the entire history of Wall Street, | 在华尔街的整个历史上 |
| [1:53:25] | no investment bank has ever failed unless caught in criminal activities. | 从没有投资银行失败 除非因为犯罪被牵连 |
| [1:53:30] | So, yes, I stand by my Bear Stearns optimism. | 我的回应是坚持 我认为贝尔前景光明 |
| [1:53:33] | Mr. Miller, I’m sorry. Quick question. | 米勒先生 打扰了 一个小问题 |
| [1:53:36] | From the time you guys started talking, | 刚才你们正在谈话的时候 |
| [1:53:38] | Bear Stearns stock has fallen more than 38%. | 贝尔的股票已经跌落了38% |
| [1:53:41] | Would you still buy more? | 你还要再买入吗？ |
| [1:53:42] | Yeah, sure, of course I’d buy more. Why not? | 当然我当然要买入 为什么不买 |
| [1:53:47] | Boom. | 当场打脸 |
| [1:53:51] | Jesus Christ! | 天哪 |
| [1:53:54] | That concludes the first part of our presentation. | 我们第一部分的讨论就结束了 |
| [1:53:58] | Up next, we have the legendary former chairman of the Fed, | 下面我们有请 传奇的前美联储主席 |
| [1:54:03] | Alan Greenspan. | 格林斯潘 |
| [1:54:05] | Folks? | 大伙 |
| [1:54:24] | …employees of Lehman Brothers today, | 雷曼兄弟的员工… |
| [1:54:26] | as the Wall Street giant’s stock went to zero. | 华尔街的大公司股票跌到零 |
| [1:54:29] | The collapse of the venerable New York bank | 纽约银行的形象毁于一旦 |
| [1:54:31] | follows a tumultuous few months of market volatility | 之后将是几个月的市场动荡 |
| [1:54:35] | and fear in the world economy. | 我们担心世界经济… |
| [1:54:38] | I got to see inside. | 我得去里面看看 |
| [1:54:40] | How? | 怎么进去？ |
| [1:54:42] | Come on. | 来吧 |
| [1:54:44] | I left my phone in the office. I threw my pass out already. | 我电话忘到办公室了 门卡也扔了 |
| [1:54:47] | Do you mind if I take your pass? | 能用你的吗？ |
| [1:54:49] | I don’t give a shit anymore. You can do what you want. | 爱用就用 我才不管 |
| [1:54:59] | Go directly to your transportation. | 直接上班车 |
| [1:55:01] | Do not talk to the press. | 别对媒体说话 |
| [1:55:03] | After 18 years, I just leave? That’s just fucking great! | 18年了 我就落了这么个结果 还赶我走 |
| [1:55:07] | I’ll talk to whoever the hell I want! | 我愿意怎么干就怎么干 |
| [1:55:10] | Do not talk to the press. | 别对媒体说话 |
| [1:55:12] | Go directly to your transportation. | 直接上班车 |
| [1:55:14] | Do not talk to… | 别对… |
| [1:55:18] | Hey, look, you wanna get a bite tonight? | 晚上想一起吃个饭吗？ |
| [1:55:19] | There’s this new Cuban place just opened on the Lower East Side. | 下东城那边开了古巴餐馆 |
| [1:55:23] | It’s supposed to be good. | 可以去… |
| [1:55:24] | – Really? – Yeah. | – 是吗 – 是啊 |
| [1:55:26] | You and I? | 咱们俩 |
| [1:55:28] | Yeah, or other people. | 也带上大伙吧 |
| [1:55:30] | – That sounds nice. I would like that. – Yeah. | 好主意 我很想去 |
| [1:55:31] | Finally. | 总算打电话了 |
| [1:55:33] | Mark, hey. | 马克 |
| [1:55:35] | It’s a bloodbath up here. | 这里已经血流成河了 |
| [1:55:36] | Morgan stock has lost half its value. | 摩根股票贬值一半 |
| [1:55:38] | It’s down to 23.10. It’s in freefall. | 跌倒23.10 |
| [1:55:40] | Clients want to talk to you about pulling their money. | 这是跌破的趋势 我想和你谈谈脱身的事 |
| [1:55:43] | It’s now or never, Mark. We got to sell. | 现在不把钱撤出来就没机会了 马克 我们要出手了 |
| [1:55:50] | Mark. | 马克 |
| [1:55:53] | Mark, you hear me? | 马克 你听到了吗 |
| [1:55:54] | Mailbox one. | 语音信箱1 |
| [1:55:56] | You have 15 messages. | 您有15条留言 |
| [1:56:00] | Mike, I can’t seem to get ahold of you. | 迈克尔 我联系不上你 |
| [1:56:02] | Will you please call me at your earliest convenience. | 你能方便的时候尽快回电话吗 |
| [1:56:05] | It’s Jack. You’re buying stocks? | 我是杰夫 你现在还要买股票？ |
| [1:56:08] | The market’s at an all-time low. This is crazy! | 现在是股市最低点 你太离谱了 |
| [1:56:12] | I met my wife on Match.com. | 我和我妻子是在网上认识的 |
| [1:56:14] | My profile said, | 我的交友资料说 |
| [1:56:16] | “I am a medical student with only one eye, | 我是个医学院学生只有一只眼能用 |
| [1:56:18] | “an awkward social manner, | 不懂社交 |
| [1:56:20] | “and $145, 000 in student loans.” | 助学贷款还有14.5万要还 |
| [1:56:25] | She wrote back, | 她的回信是 |
| [1:56:26] | “You’re just what I’ve been looking for.” | 我找的就是你这样的 |
| [1:56:29] | She meant honest. | 她的意思是我很坦诚 |
| [1:56:31] | So let me be honest. | 那我也对你们开诚布公 |
| [1:56:33] | The housing crisis represents the greatest financial opportunity of… | 房地产危机是金融史上最大的机会 |
| [1:56:37] | Making money is not like I thought it would be. | 但赚钱并不像我想像的那样简单 |
| [1:56:40] | This business kills the part of life that is essential. | 做交易… 杀死了生命中对我最重要的那部分 |
| [1:56:45] | The part that has nothing to do with business. | 这部分和做交易无关 |
| [1:56:50] | For the past two years, my insides | 在过去两年 我内心感觉到 |
| [1:56:53] | have felt like they’re eating themselves. | 黑暗的东西在自我吞噬 |
| [1:56:56] | All the people I respected | 我曾经尊敬过的人 |
| [1:56:59] | won’t talk to me anymore | 现在再也不理我了 |
| [1:57:01] | except through lawyers. | 除了通过律师来找我 |
| [1:57:07] | People | 人们… |
| [1:57:09] | want an authority to tell them how to value things… | 总希望有权威来告诉他们如何来选择价值 |
| [1:57:12] | …but they choose this authority not based on facts or results. | 但他们选择权威 并不是基于事实情况 或者成就 |
| [1:57:19] | They choose it because it seems authoritative and familiar. | 他们这样选 只是因为这些人看起来很权威 |
| [1:57:23] | And I am not | 说出了他们想听的话 |
| [1:57:26] | and never have been “familiar”. | 可是 我从未盲从过大众 |
| [1:57:31] | So… | 所以… |
| [1:57:33] | So, I’ve come to the sullen realization | 我得到了严肃的结论 |
| [1:57:36] | that I must close down the fund. | 我必须关闭基金 |
| [1:57:39] | Sincerely, Michael J. Burry, M.D. | 真诚的 迈克尔·巴里博士 |
| [1:58:42] | This isn’t how I pictured it. | 这和我想像的不一样 |
| [1:58:46] | What did you think we’d find? | 你以为是什么样的 |
| [1:58:47] | I don’t know. | 反正不是这样 |
| [1:58:50] | Grownups. | 人人都做个成年人 |
| [1:58:55] | Mark, you there? | 马克 你听着吗 |
| [1:59:00] | Mark? | 马克 |
| [1:59:01] | Paulson and Bernanke just left the White House. | 财政部长和美联储主席刚刚离开白宫 |
| [1:59:09] | There’s going to be a bailout. | 可能政府要出手了 |
| [1:59:13] | Well, they had to. Right? | 不出手不行啊 是吧 |
| [1:59:17] | Paper markets would’ve collapsed. | 我们用担保兑付房贷 |
| [1:59:18] | They knew. | 这些人早就知道 |
| [1:59:20] | Cash would’ve stopped coming out of ATMs. | ATM机回头会取不出钱来的 |
| [1:59:21] | They had to backstop this. | 他们必须阻止这种情况发生 |
| [1:59:23] | They knew the taxpayers would bail them out. | 这些银行家知道政府会用纳税人的钱保他们 |
| [1:59:25] | They weren’t being stupid. They just didn’t care. | 他们不是愚蠢 他们只是不在乎 |
| [1:59:28] | Yeah. ‘Cause they’re fucking crooks. | 是啊 他妈的一帮骗子 |
| [1:59:32] | But at least we’re going to see some of them go to jail. | 但是走着瞧吧 肯定会有人进监狱的 |
| [1:59:36] | Right? I mean, they’re gonna have to break up the banks. | 是吧？大银行会被拆分 |
| [1:59:40] | I mean, the party’s over. | 不可能再为所欲为 |
| [1:59:42] | I don’t know. I don’t know, Vinnie. | 我不知道 我不知道 文尼 |
| [1:59:47] | I have a feeling | 我总觉得 |
| [1:59:49] | that in a few years people are gonna be doing | 几年之内人们还是会和 |
| [1:59:51] | what they always do when the economy tanks. | 以前经济危机一样 |
| [1:59:54] | They will be blaming immigrants and poor people. | 责怪移民和穷人拖累了他们 |
| [1:59:57] | But Mark was wrong. | 但是马克错了 |
| [2:00:00] | In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers | 接下来的几年 几百个银行 |
| [2:00:02] | and rating agencies executives went to jail. | 和评级高管进了监狱 |
| [2:00:05] | The SEC was completely overhauled. | 证券交易委员会被政府彻查 |
| [2:00:07] | And Congress had no choice but to break up the big banks | 议会也迫于压力不得不拆分大银行 |
| [2:00:10] | and regulate the mortgage and derivatives industries. | 进一步规范房贷和金融衍生品市场 |
| [2:00:17] | Just kidding. | 上面开玩笑啦 |
| [2:00:19] | The banks took the money the American people gave them | 银行把人们投资的钱拿走 |
| [2:00:21] | and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses | 用来给他们自己开巨额奖金 |
| [2:00:24] | and lobby Congress to kill big reform. | 然后贿赂议会 来驳回激进的改革 |
| [2:00:26] | And then they blamed immigrants and poor people. | 然后再把锅甩到移民和穷鬼身上 |
| [2:00:28] | And this time, even teachers. | 这次 连教师也跟着被指责 |
| [2:00:32] | And when all was said and done, only one single banker went to jail. | 这些都说完做完以后 只有一个银行家被关了监狱 |
| [2:00:36] | This poor schmuck. | 这个倒霉蛋 |
| [2:00:37] | Kareem Serageldin from Credit Suisse. | 瑞士瑞信银行的卡里姆 |
| [2:00:40] | He hid a few billion in mortgage bond losses, | 他在房贷证券中损失了几十亿 |
| [2:00:42] | something most of the big banks did on a good day during the crisis. | 但对金融危机的大银行来说 这些损失都是平常事儿 |
| [2:00:47] | Mark, can we sell now? | 马克 我们能出手了吗 |
| [2:00:51] | The fund will make almost $1 billion. | 现在基金能回收10亿 |
| [2:00:54] | You’ll clear $200 mil, Mark. | 你能清算出2亿来 |
| [2:00:56] | You know, once we sell, | 可是… 如果我们出手 |
| [2:00:59] | we’ll be just like the rest of them. | 最终和他们又有什么不一样 |
| [2:01:01] | You know that. | 你知道我的意思 |
| [2:01:03] | No, we’re not. We’re not the bad guys here. | 不一样 我们不是坏人 |
| [2:01:04] | We didn’t defraud the American people and prey on their dreams | 我们没有利用美国人 想要有个 |
| [2:01:08] | of owning a home. All right? | 房子的梦想来诈骗 |
| [2:01:10] | They did. | 像他们那样 |
| [2:01:12] | And now we get to kick them in the teeth. | 现在出手能打得他们找牙 |
| [2:01:19] | A billion dollars. | 10亿美元 |
| [2:01:23] | That’s right. | 是的 |
| [2:01:24] | But we got to close out our position or it could be zero. | 但是我们必须尽快平仓 否则可能拿不回钱了 |
| [2:01:28] | I mean, it’s now or never, Mark. | 机不可失 时不再来 马克 |
| [2:01:40] | Okay. | 好吧 |
| [2:01:45] | Sell it all. | 全卖出去 |